The 6.7% decline in total all-sources global common-pool handle reported by Breeders’ Cup for its two-day World Championships of 2023 at Santa Anita Park most deservedly needs some review.
These days not all handle is equal, thanks to the proliferation of computer-robotic wagering teams that account for a significant percentage of pari-mutuel pools but, because of their rebates, do not contribute as much to the event, track, and purses. That is to say that, in general, a $1 million decline in CRW wagering would not impact as much as a $1 million decline in “everyday” players. As such CRW teams are identified in pools, Breeders’ Cup will readily be able to determine where the declines occurred.
So leaving that issue aside, I had four initial thoughts about possible reasons for this year’s handle decline.
1. Star power. While this year’s World Championships had some returning stars—Cody’s Wish , Goodnight Olive , and Elite Power won their respective races for a second straight year—the event didn’t have a horse quite as big as Flightline , who retired with a perfect record from six starts after winning last year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) at Keeneland by a record 8 1/4 lengths.
That said, Triple Crown winner American Pharoah brought his considerable star power to Keeneland for the 2015 Classic, but the 2016 event still was able to draw additional wagering. Bettors wagered nearly $7 million additional dollars on the 2016 Breeders’ Cup at Santa Anita for an increase of more than 4.6%.
2. California concerns? In four of the previous five times that California has hosted a Breeders’ Cup after a track in a different state hosted the previous year, handle has gone up. As that didn’t happen this year, it could call for a closer look.
3. Races after the Classic. For the first time this year, Breeders’ Cup conducted two of its races after the Classic. This one I do have more of a ready answer: The numbers I reviewed do not indicate this as a reason for the handle decline.
Wagering on the two races conducted after the Classic, the Turf Sprint (G1) and the Sprint (G1), actually was slightly up from 2022. Looking at handle in the win, place, and show pools, as well as the exacta, trifecta, and superfecta pools, wagering on these two races in 2023 was up about 0.9% to $15,068,505.
4. Competition from sports wagering. Through October, wagering on United States races in 2023 is down 4.7% when compared with 2022. And the percentage decrease has been even higher during football season.
In the spring, the Kentucky Derby day card saw record-breaking wagering, as did Belmont Stakes day for a non-Triple Crown year, but those events do not compete with legal football wagering as the Breeders’ Cup does. Football is king in sports wagering and since the season began, racing saw a 5.87% decline in September, a 9.34% decline in October, and November is off to a slow start.
While there was one more Saturday in the month of October this year than last year (important because Saturday is the biggest wagering day for U.S. racing), these downward trends in the fall come at a time when legal sports wagering is skyrocketing. The Breeders’ Cup decline is very much in line with what we’ve seen the first two months of football season. This should be a wake-up call.
If I were looking into the Breeders’ Cup wagering decline, I’d put most of my focus on this final possible factor.
