By J. Keeler Johnson (“Keelerman”) Twitter: @J_Keelerman
After a three-week break, the Road to the Kentucky Derby will resume on Saturday with a $200,000 Lecomte S. (G3) at the Fair Grounds.
Lecomte is the final installment of an action-packed, 14-race card that also contains Silverbulletday S., a qualifier on the Road to the Kentucky Oaks.
Let’s make Lecomte and Silverbulletday the focus of this week’s handicap exercise:
Silverbulletday S.
Half a dozen sophomores will race the mile and 70 yards in Silverbulletday, the second of four Road to the Kentucky Oaks prep races taking place at the Fair Grounds this meeting. The first installment of the series was Untapable S. December 26, where #1 Fannie and Freddie used a follow-up tactic to finish second after a clear lead in the middle of the field.
Fannie and Freddie are a decent choice for a recurring, but there’s hardly any pace in the Silverbulletday field and Fannie and Freddie could have trouble spinning around in the fun stroll. #5 La Crete.
A beautiful hybrid daughter of Medaglia d’Oro among the many Category 1 winners of Cavorting, La Crete is the half-sister of Cotillion S. (G1) winner Clairiere, who won Rachel Alexandra S. (G2) at last year’s Fair Grounds. La Crete has the pedigree to thrive in the long run, as she showed quite clearly during her exceptional 1/16 mile maiden weight loss at Churchill Downs two months ago. On that occasion, La Crete led by daylight at every call to win the 2 1/4 length “deceleration”.
I believe that La Crete has a world full of potential. The Stonestreet Stables cross-bred had the appearance of the Kentucky Oaks in the making, and racer Joel Rosario – poised to win his first Eclipse Award for outstanding rider – was named to ride. If La Crete rushes to an uncontested lead, I don’t believe anyone will drag her in.
Lecomte S. (G3)
The 1/16-mile Lecomte 1 is a fairly early stepping stone on the Road to the Kentucky Derby, but its impact on Triple Crown history over the past decade has been dramatic. Oxbow (2013) and War of Will (2019) have ranked Lecomte victories as victories in Preakness S. (G1), while Lecomte starters Midnight Bourbon, Mandaloun, Destin and Golden Soul have all been ranked. into the spring classics.
It wouldn’t be surprising if Lecomte 2022 made a similarly strong impact. The race had nine entries, but two appeared ranked higher than the rest. #3 Pappacap booked many times at 1st grade level, while # 5 Epicenter won a race on the Road to the Kentucky Derby.
Among the pairs, Pappacap is the horse to beat. Gun Runner’s son won Best Pal S. (G2) during the summer at Del Mar, then kicked off a fruitful fall campaign with runner-up efforts in American Pharoah S. (G1) and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) . On both occasions, Pappacap was beaten only by the undefeated Corniche, the two-year-old men’s champion likely in 2021.
Pappacap has trained well for his sophomore debut, and coach Mark Casse knows what it takes to win Lecomte — he’s won two of the last three with War of Will (2019) and Enforceable (2020). The only downfall in Pappacap’s armor is the fact that he lost ground from eighth to the finish line in both of his runs, hinting Lecomte’s distance could be a hair beyond good. his best.
This was in contrast to Epicenter, who gave the impression that he was going to thrive for the long haul. After finishing in an unremarkable sixth place in her first sprint, Epicenter used racing tactics to win the three-and-a-half-mile women’s special weight class at Churchill Downs. . He was even more impressive in the Gun Runner S. 1 1/16-mile race at the Fair Grounds last month, squeezing in speed before pulling out forcefully to win the six-and-a-half innings.
Epicenter was ridden in his first win by Joel Rosario, who returned to the mount on Saturday after recovering from a rib injury. Rosario has won by 24% since returning, so he gives Lecomte positive momentum. Epicenter’s tactical pace and midfield draw would ensure a clean ride, setting the stage for Rosario and coach Steve Asmussen to land a lucrative double bet with La Crete and Epicenter.
Now it’s your turn! Who do you like in Silverbulletday and Lecomte?
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J. Keeler Johnson (also known as “Keelerman”) is a writer, cinematographer, voice actor, amputee, and horse racing enthusiast. A huge fan of racing history, he considers Dr Fager the greatest racehorse ever made in America, but considers Zenyatta his all-time favorite.
