Tesla may be on a downward spiral in the US electric vehicle market share. But even if the 2027 model arrives, the US-exclusive electric vehicle maker will still come out on top, according to the annual Car Wars study released last week from Bank of America.
Ford and GM’s strategies “both seem relatively solid,” albeit very different. GM and Stellantis in particular, with their “growing up” EV strategies, are poised to reap huge gains in their share of the EV market by that time, according to the relative strength assessment report. of each automaker’s vehicle product line in the United States.
The study, first conducted in 1991, looked at a range of primary and secondary sources, from industry contacts and trade publications to the supply chains and strategies of automakers. on vehicle platforms and product cycle planning. This year’s study looks at model years from 2024 to 2027, which typically includes the calendar years 2023-2026.
Bank of America Car Wars Study 2023 – Electric Vehicle Sales Growth
BoA predicts electric vehicle sales will reach 11% of the total market this year, 14% in calendar year 2024, 21% in 2025 and 26% in 2026. Among those drivers, Tesla’s market share The electric vehicle market is getting smaller in relative terms even as it continues to grow larger than the overall market. It accounts for 78% of the electric vehicle market in 2018 and 62% in 2022, and the BoA predicts that market share will continue to drop to around 18% by 2026. But by then, Tesla will have grown to nearly 5% of the total. number of US auto sales.
BoA calls “EV participants”, which includes Tesla plus others such as lucidFisker, and Rivian, will account for 7.5% of U.S. auto sales by 2026, with their combined share of the EV market dropping to around 30%. At the same time, the so-called incumbent automakers will grow from just over 20 percent of the market to more than half by 2026 — but none of them in particular will overtake Tesla. It considers Stellantis one of the companies making the most money in this, growing from less than 1% in 2022 to 8% in 2026.
Nice weather The best-selling electric car brand is Tesla and the best-selling all-electric model is Tesla Model Y. Nothing comes close. But within a few years, that will likely change.
2023 Tesla Model Y – Courtesy of Tesla, Inc.
By new model nameplates (not necessarily sales), BoA expects GM leans the most towards electric vehicles, with EVs accounting for two-thirds of the company’s new model launches between 2024-2027. Over the same period, electric vehicles will account for only 22% of Toyota’s new model launches and 24% of Nissan’s. Both automakers of the latter are expected to proudly introduce the most hybrid models of that period.
BoA notes that over the forecast period alone, the number of new all-electric model nameplates will exceed the number of ICE vehicles. It suggests that ICE’s dominance is over and hybrid vehicles will “narrow in coverage as ICE and EV vehicles approach cost parity.”
“GM’s electric vehicle lineup looks particularly attractive, with 22 EV launches during our forecast period, starting with Cadillac and extend across all of the company’s brands,” it noted.
2024 Cadillac Lyriq
EVs are not the only part of the rapidly growing market. The cross-utility market is already saturated and BoA suggests that the launch of more new models will create a more price-competitive environment in the 2025-2027 models. The total number of models on the market will also skyrocket—to 416, up from 284 in 2022.
“This is largely driven by OEMs’ efforts to capitalize on the burgeoning recovery in the U.S. auto cycle with new products, as well as to expand product lines,” the company said. their electric and luxury car products”.
BofA also points out that the likelihood of product cancellations is increasing, so don’t completely plan for automakers to make every EV or crossover they suggest that might be in the works.
“The next 4+ years could be one of the most uncertain and volatile years for product strategy ever,” it summarizes—with the outcome likely to again depend somewhat on the next presidential election.
