-
Liz Loza, ESPN
Fantasy football is a passion for many. Sometimes that passion causes fantasy managers to make emotional decisions even when the data suggest otherwise. Each week during the 2023 NFL season Liz Loza will attempt to strike a balance between what the data states and what the heart wants. This is called Facts vs. Feelings.
Hello, New England!
As promised, I’m typing away from a business hotel that offers free chocolate chip cookies but charges $4 for a bottle of water. It’s great, actually! Less because of the amenities and more because of its proximity to my coworkers. All of whom (yes, really, all) I’ve developed a genuine appreciation for.
Trying to establish a rapport with colleagues while working remotely from the opposite coast can be a tricky endeavor. It certainly heightens my expectations when traveling east. I want to take advantage of every in-person opportunity, carve out one-on-one time with each team member and still crush my preexisting list of content obligations. But there’s only so much time! How do I make myself available to everyone?
Rather than following my therapist’s advice and setting appropriate personal boundaries, I rented a car! That way I could be more available to everyone without having to rely on anyone. *shrug emoji*
Here’s an embarrassing admission. Prior to this trip, I had never rented a car in my life. I just never needed to? So when I pulled up to the airport-based rental desk I was fully expecting a sullen customer service rep to hand me the keys to a non-descript gray sedan and send me on my merry way. Much to my unexpected delight, however, a wonderfully warm woman patiently walked me through the paperwork and explained they were low on rental options but did have a Jeep Wrangler available, if that was OK.
Excuse me?
A Jeep? Wrangler? That’s what I drove in high school! My first car was a stick-shift, no-frills, matte green Jeep Wrangler. Like, for real no-frills; no AC, no power steering, no power locks, no power windows, tape deck only. I loved that car! I drove it so much that I had to replace the clutch. Twice. It wasn’t until my mom forced me to sell it (“Lizzie, you can’t drive that metal box on the 405 in the sweltering heat!”) upon moving to Los Angeles. And ever since, I have been waiting for finances and obligations (it’s not exactly cheap, nor is it built for car seats) to align.
They haven’t yet in my at-home, “real” life. But I was thrilled for this field trip. While it definitely took a minute to acclimate (and navigate my way in the dead of night through the pouring rain from Bradley International to my hotel) the overall experience has been fantastic. Just as thrilling as I remember. I don’t want to return this car.
It’s a lesson about expectations, right? They were low heading into the situation, I was pleasantly surprised, and now I’m going to be disappointed once it’s over. The same could be said of De’Von Achane’s explosive fantasy ascent, followed by his blindsiding knee injury. Or Adam Thielen’s ridiculous performance and what I’m afraid will be his eventual return to earth. Conversely, a parallel could be drawn to Joe Burrow’s slow start or Cooper Kupp’s process-affirming bounce-back.
Each of these instances requires fantasy managers to stay open to numerous outcomes. It’s a reminder that nothing is fixed or forever. The ups and downs of the season bring losses and gains that we can’t always foresee. The objective then becomes to twist our feelings as the facts turn. Sometimes this journey is all about cruising with the doors off. Other occasions demand activating the four-wheel drive and heading off-road.
Either way, our expectations necessitate as much management as our rosters.
Brock Purdy, QB, San Francisco 49ers: Who has it better than the 49ers? Led by an offense as deep as it is explosive while being bolstered by an elite defense, San Fran has overwhelmed opponents to a 5-0 record. Brock Purdy — aka Mr. Irrelevant 2022 — stands at the helm, thriving as an efficient conduit for Kyle Shanahan’s trademark scheme.
Selected in the double-digit rounds of fantasy drafts, there was speculation Purdy wouldn’t even be the starter at the top of the season. Just a few weeks later and he’s QB5 in fantasy points, outpacing Patrick Mahomes, Tua Tagovailoa and Lamar Jackson, to name just three.
The 24-year-old has been dealing in the most mistake-free way possible. Just one of two starting QBs without a turnover, Purdy ranks second in completion percentage (72%, behind only Josh Allen) and yards per attempt (9.3, trailing only Tagovailoa). His two rushing scores have additionally buoyed his fantasy stats, regularly placing him on the QB1/QB2 bubble.
Ironically, the efficiency that makes Purdy so successful in real life is what caps his ceiling in the virtual game; no junk time for him as the Niners run when they’re up, and they’re always up. Still, his command of the offense makes him a top-15 fantasy QB even facing a rugged (and rested) Browns defense this weekend. What a pleasant surprise at a position that has been rife with startling headaches.
Travis Etienne Jr., RB, Jacksonville Jaguars: Kudos to Etienne for elevating his game. As I admitted on Monday’s episode of “Fantasy Focus,” I did not see it coming … but I sure am glad it’s happening. A player who has always had that burst but whose versatility wasn’t fully utilized, the Clemson product appears to have evolved into a dynamic every-down weapon.
The RB5 in fantasy points per game, Etienne’s 78% snap share is third behind only Kyren Williams and Josh Jacobs. He ranks second at the position in carries (95), fifth in rushing yards (396), sixth in grabs (18), and fifth in receiving yards (144). If there is a downside to his profile, it’s that he has yet to manage a single attempt inside the 5-yard line (where the aptly named Tank Bigsby has been sowing his rookie oats).
Regardless, the 24-year-old’s overall volume makes him a top-10 fantasy play at the position despite having to square up against a solid Colts run defense. Don’t overthink this one. ETN is doing the damn thing.
Rachaad White, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: White wasn’t an efficient player with Tom Brady under center last year (4.3 yards per touch, RB48). No one expected that to change with Baker Mayfield at QB. The buy on White was his volume. And that prognostication has, thus far, remained accurate. It’s one thing, however, to imagine inefficiency, but it’s a whole other experience living through the 3.3 yards per carry.
But back to the good stuff. White is managing 19 touches per contest (RB19) with 63 of his total opportunities occurring on the ground (RB12 in totes per game) and the other 13 existing through the air (RB16 catches per game). From a pass-catching perspective, the second-year RB is performing admirably, finishing inside the top 16 FF RBs in routes run and receiving yards. It’s the rushing stats that are troublesome. White’s aforementioned 3.3 YPC ranks 33rd of 41 qualifiers. Additionally, his average yards before and after contact rank outside of the top 25 players at the position.
With upcoming matchups against Detroit (third-fewest FFPG allowed to RBs) and Atlanta (the fewest FPPG allowed to RBs), low rushing output should be expected from White. Consider the 24-year-old a low-end RB2 with only two teams on bye in Week 6.
Chris Olave, WR, New Orleans Saints: Olave was my must-have player of 2023. But that was before Derek Carr tried to play through a shoulder injury (Dennis Allen will do anything to avoid staring Jameis, huh?). Since Carr sprained his AC joint in Week 3, Olave’s numbers plummeted. There may be other factors at play — like Alvin Kamara’s return and a blow-out victory over the Pats — that have negatively affected Olave’s volume. However, the fact still remains that he went from drawing double-digit looks in three consecutive efforts to receiving a total of 11 targets over his past two games.
His conversion rate (along with Carr’s YPA) has also dwindled. The 23-year-old has caught just three of those previously mentioned 11 opportunities while going 0-for-7 on throws 10-plus yards downfield. That’s what happens when a wideout’s catchable target rate plummets to 68.4% (WR68). I don’t anticipate a course correction this Sunday at Houston.
The Texans have allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points to opposing WRs. In fact, no wide receiver has topped 16 FPTS or 80 yards when facing DeMeco Ryans’ secondary. Stay patient, though. Olave’s talent keeps him on the WR2 radar. And, if you’re looking for something to look forward to, the Saints host the Colts in just two weeks.
Jaylen Waddle, WR, Miami Dolphins: Waddle closed out 2022 as fantasy’s WR7 overall, just four spots behind his teammate Tyreek Hill. As a result he was selected in the third round (WR13) of many fantasy drafts. For the moment, it looks as though fans of the virtual game were rostering Miami’s No. 2 WR at peak value.
Waddle’s production hasn’t been bad. He’s either cleared 75 yards or found the end zone in three of four contests (and he missed Week 3 with a concussion). But it also hasn’t been great. And definitely not “fantasy football WR13” great. Not even close. Waddle ranks 40th at the position, managing just under 12 FPTS per outing. A dip in his YPR has capped his gains, but his volume appears back on the upswing, potentially leveling out any efficiency blips.
Tua Tagovailoa looked to his former college teammate a squad-high 10 times in the Fins’ 15-point victory over the G-Men. Tagovailoa has also leaned on Waddle in scoring situations, as the 24-year-old’s five end zone targets are tied for sixth among receivers. Had Waddle come down with one or two more of those almost-TDs, he’d rank inside the top 25 fantasy WRs … and we wouldn’t be as worried.
I’m not convinced Waddle will ROI on his late-August draft value. But I do think his production will continue an upward trajectory versus a banged-up Panthers secondary in Week 6. Carolina gave up three aerial scores to the Lions last Sunday. Waddle is due. Give me 6 grabs for 80 yards and spike come Sunday.
Dallas Goedert, TE, Philadelphia Eagles: ¡Finalmente! Goedert did the thing after four consecutive weeks of posting single-digit fantasy totals. Leading all Eagles pass-catchers in looks, Goedert converted eight of nine targets for 117 yards and a score in a favorable matchup at the Rams. Goedert’s season-high 25 fantasy points were a reminder of Philly’s offensive prowess and the potential boon associated with investing in such an explosive collection of playmakers.
It was only a matter of time. Or so the 70% of fantasy managers who remained faithfully committed to starting Goedert believed. In their defense, the 28-year-old has registered a 95% snap share while only pass blocking 19 times in five games. Goedert additionally ranks fourth among TEs in routes run, indicating his involvement as a receiver and his subsequent upside in the virtual game.
Vaulting to TE8 overall, Goedert appears likely to post another high-end performance at the Jets in Week 6. New York has allowed the most fantasy points to opposing tight ends, giving up a league-high five scores to the position (including one to Adam Trautman on Sunday). Consider Goedert a top-eight fantasy play at the position this weekend.
Logan Thomas, TE, Washington Commanders: Thomas may not be considered elite by fantasy managers, but Eric Bieniemy has no problems featuring his team’s TE1. The eight-year vet leads Washington’s offense in targets per routes run (19.7%) and red zone target percentage (21.1%). Much to the chagrin of Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson investors, Thomas was prioritized Thursday night versus Chicago. The converted QB led all Washington pass-catchers in targets (11), catches (9) and yards (77), finishing as fantasy’s TE4 in Week 5.
While Thomas posted his most gaudy stat line in primetime, the 32-year-old has been consistent throughout 2023. He’s managed either 40 yards or a touchdown (good for 7+ fantasy points) in each outing, offering FF managers a legit floor at a frustratingly unstable position. In fact, Thomas is currently fantasy’s TE8 overall (despite missing Week 3 with a concussion) while ranking sixth at the position in fantasy points per game.
He figures to post top-10 fantasy numbers in another plus matchup at Atlanta this Sunday. The Falcons have allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends, making Thomas a front-runner for least-surprising surprise in Week 6.
Follow Liz on social @LizLoza_FF
