The unpredictable spring weather in Kentucky often leads people with disabilities to scour the genealogy of Kentucky Derby (G1) candidates for any signs of an ancestral mismatch. A stallion with a stallion or a sludge treatment dam is more likely to succeed in finding success in the slopes is a common angle and some supporting anecdotal evidence exists.
make for curly won the 2007 Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) on the sloppy track in Monmouth Park and also won the 2008 Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) in the mud at Belmont Parkand his son exaggeration marked victories in the sloppy performances of the 2016 Santa Anita Derby (G1), Preakness Stakes (G1) and Haskell Invitational Stakes (G1). Birdstone snapped his daughter on a 12 1/2-long muddy track (but lost the sloppy 2004 Kentucky Derby), and his son Mining that bird threw home the upset winner of the sloppy 2009 Derby. Empire maker won both the wrong starts and mating icon project who destroyed a level 3 field 13 1/4 long on a muddy road.
One can easily find examples where the theory does not apply. Curlin’s son malice palace lost both of his sloppy race starts, so did the champion’s son good magic . Empire Maker clearly loves the slide, with wins in the Belmont Stakes (G1) and Wood Memorial Stakes (G1) in the mud, but against Unbridled, who lost three of their three starts in the wrong direction. Grindstone and Smart Strike, the males of bird stone and Curlin, respectively, did not begin to deviate from their careers.
This combination of examples led BloodHorse MarketWatch to turn to statistics to see if the theory holds any merit. We analyzed all the runners who started trail running in North America between 2018-22 as well as the males and dams of those runners. More than 800,000 starts have been made by runners whose parents both started at least once. Of those, 106,396 (13%) started off in the wrong direction (the dirt track wasn’t labeled as fast or good). The breed’s baseline is 13.9% of off-track wins from off-track starts.
Next, we divided the runners into overlapping groups based on their parents’ success on the deflection track: runners with parents winning on the off course, runners with smashes on a derailed track and a runner with both parents wins on a derailed track . Horses with an off-track winning male have an off-track win rate of 14.1%. Athletes who ran off the dam who won on the slide had slightly better results on the slope, with a rate of 14.6%. In the end, athletes whose parents both succeeded on the track won by a margin of 14.8%.
Although there was a slight increase in gradation in the categories, favoring the effects of the dam over the male, less than a percentage point crossed the win rate from lowest to highest among those categories. .
All in all, there seems to be little advantage to sloppy parents, but MarketWatch has seen some bulls whose offspring have been particularly successful in the mud, though not necessarily reflective of the deviant performance of males. . The progeny of some males actually perform better on the slopes than on the fast track. Silent Name progeny’s win rate on non-track starts at 15.6%, while their win rate on good or fast tracks is just 8.0%, representing a high 94% increase in winning performances when not tracking. Lane’s End’s tone artist has the highest off-track win rate for active stallions in North America (with at least 100 off-track ponies starting 2018-2022) at 23%, much higher than the breed average and also higher than the win rate of those starting on a fast or good track (16.8%, up 37%).
Ice Keen (via make for curly ), grandfather of the winner of the Kentucky Derby in 2022 rich attack Male runners show a clear dislike of mud, as they have a 49% reduction in their win rate when running on the wrong track compared to good or fast conditions. Freud only 6.8% of the progeny won when starting on the wrong track, 44% less than the success rate of the progeny in favorable race conditions.
The top 20 sire charts and the top 20 on page 78 contain contradictions to the theory. Curlin was shown as a sire by two of the top 20 males due to misdirected performances in Palace Malice and Exaggerator, but also his son Keen Ice was at the top of the recommender’s list. . Likewise, Unbridled’s Song has Map of Liam And Unbridled speed as a leader and Mission Impossible like a trailer; great again represented on both lists by Taurus (leader) and payer (introductory video). Super savings winner of the 2010 Kentucky Derby, has two sons on the following list, including Runhappy who had two off-track victories as a runner.
Coming to this year’s Kentucky Derby, many of the top contenders tested a sloppy track. Two Phil romped house in sloppy Street Sense Stakes (G3) at Churchill Downs last fall. Forte handled a sloppy, tight-lipped track with confidence in Hopeful Stakes (G1). confidence game , angel of the empire , raise Cain , Tapit Trice And Missiles can won at least once when starting on a sloppy or muddy track. Three of those seven candidates had at least one parent win the race; both sir (Spin hard ) and Two Phil’s smash (Mia Torri) have earned at least one off-track win.
