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“Climate models have not ‘exaggerated’ global warming” except that they… – Do you enjoy that?


David Middleton’s “double take” guest

September 2017

September 21, 2017

Fact Check: Climate models didn’t ‘exaggerate’ global warming

ZEKE HAUSFASTER

A new one learn published in the journal Nature Geosciences this week by the majority of UK-based climate scientists, has led to claims in the media that climate model was “wrong” and significantly overestimated planetary warming.

Here the Carbon Summary shows why such claims are a misrepresentation of the main results of the paper. In fact, the results obtained from the type of model observation comparison performed in the paper depend a lot on the data set and the outputs of the model that the authors use.

Multiple media network coverage Around the paper, Millar et al, focused on the idea that climate models are overestimating the observed temperature by about 0.3 degrees Celsius, or nearly 33% of the temperature observed since the end of the year. the 1800s.

[…]

Carbon Summary

May 2022

Using ‘overheating’ climate models that exaggerate the impact of global warming
UN report authors say researchers should avoid questionable models
May 4, 2022 11:00 AM BY VOOSEN

A study shows that Arctic precipitation will become dominant in the 2060s, decades earlier than expected. Another claimed air pollution from wildfires in the western US could triple by 2100. A third say a mass ocean extinction could happen in just a few centuries. century again.

All three studies published in the past year are based on projections of the future generated by some of the world’s next-generation climate models. But even model makers admit that many of these models have a puzzling problem: predicting a future that will too hot too fast. Although modelers are adapting to this reality, researchers who use model predictions to assess climate change impacts have yet to follow suit. Some researchers fear that has led to a parade of “faster-than-expected” results that threatens to discredit climate science.

Scientists need more choice in how they use model results, a group of climate scientists argue in a commentary published today in the journal Nature. Researchers should not just use the average of all climate model projections, which could lead to global temperatures up to 2100 to 0.7°C warmer by 2100 than the Commission estimates. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). “We need to take a slightly different approach,” said Zeke Hausfather, climate research lead at payments services firm Stripe and lead author of the commentary. “We have to get rid of the naive idea of ​​model democracy.” Instead, he and his colleagues call for a modeled population regime, sometimes favoring results from models known to have more realistic rates of warming.

[…]

Science!


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