The IBHOF boxer and gambler weighs in on the WBC super flyweight title fight between young champion Jesse ‘Bam’ Rodriguez and former titleholder Srisaket Sor Rungvisai in San Antonio on Saturday night.
Jesse “Bam” Rodriguez took a big step forward in his still-young career when he overcame Carlos Cuadras to claim the vacant 115lbs WBC title in February. Not only is Rodriguez facing his toughest opponent, he’s also advancing in weight from 112lbs. There’s no turning back now, and on Saturday night Rodriguez was likely to be the deadliest match of his career as he defended the title against men’s teammate Srisaket Sor Rungvisai.
This is Rodriguez’s hometown game in San Antonio, Texas. He’s the younger, fresher fighter. But Srisaket (or Wisaksil Wangek if you prefer) has greater experience and he’s heavy-handed. It was an intriguing fight, and some were surprised when Rodriguez opened as a pretty heavy favorite. He is currently at 2/9 (-450) at Betfred. If you like Srisaket’s chance, Betfred offers Thai veterans 7/2 (+350).
I don’t think anyone would be in a hurry to put a negative price on Rodriguez. But Bam should win this war. He really looks like a special talent. Only 22, Bam seems to have matured after so many years. He’s quick, skilled and he hits with authority. His former champion coach, Robert Garcia, credits Bam’s ability to handle himself against the best. That’s why Garcia signed Cuadras and why he accepted Srisaket as a rival on Saturday.
You have to respect Srisaket, who twice defeated the modern great Chocolatito Gonzalez, second in a beautiful KO in the fourth round. He followed these victories with a decisive victory over the talented Juan Francisco Estrada. However, Estrada knocked him out in a rematch, and Srisaket hasn’t been active much, with just three games in the last three years. Srisaket is 35 years old this year, is going up to boxer in the lighter weight classes. He didn’t get it all his way against 40-year-old Amnat Ruenroeng a few years ago. And although Srisaket has won his last two matches in the distance, he meets opponents who are used to stopping.
Is Srisaket the boxer he used to be? We cannot be sure. I think he looks a bit old when he put on weight. Rodriguez, meanwhile, looks bigger and stronger than when he faced Cuadras four months ago.
So, if you believe Rodriguez will win but don’t want to pay the fare for a money bet, how would you play the fight?
In that respect, Rodriguez’s decisive win looks like a good way to go. After all, Srisaket has shown toughness in all of his big matches. (It seems almost unbelievable that he was stopped in each of his first two professional matches, even though these losses were in Japan in 2009 when novice Srisaket was launched. to be the “rival”.)
If Chocolatito couldn’t stop Srisaket, and Estrada couldn’t impress him, then How can Rodriguez stop the powerful veteran?
Well, as always in boxing (and life), timing is everything. Rodriguez will definitely become a fighter after going through 12 difficult rounds with Cuadras. He is at home and ready to show. Srisaket hasn’t had a real fight in three years.
This seems to be a case of trains going in different directions. Will Rodriguez’s youth, speed and energy overwhelm his senior?
The proposal “Rodriguez by decision / technical decision” was made around 5/7 (-140) throughout the industry. That’s a fair price if you consider Rodriguez’s decisive win as the most likely outcome. If you like the idea of Rodriguez winning KO/TKO/DQ, you might be tempted by odds around 13/5 (+260).
Sometimes it all comes down to a hunch. Will Srisaket be able to replicate the fighting prowess he showed three, four years ago? We won’t know until the war begins.
If you feel like the fight goes on for 12 rounds, The “Distance – Yes” clause is about 1/2 (-200). I think I prefer “Distance – No”. And you are getting 3/2 (+150) if you bet on the match not to the last ring.
However, in these youth versus experience fights, it all depends on how much money the older boxer has left. This makes betting on the fight a guessing game.
Main image: Rodriguez (left) will be looking to beat another big name when he faces Srisaket (right) in Texas on Saturday night.
