Ukrainian military vehicles run along a road outside the strategic city of Bakhmut on January 18, 2023 in Bakhmut, Ukraine. Russia has stepped up its offensive in the Donetsk region over the new year, with the regional governor appointed by Kyiv accusing Russia of using incineration tactics.
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Ukraine may soon face a difficult decision to withdraw its troops from Bakhmut in the eastern region of Donetsk, with the fate of the city in the balance.
Bakhmut has been fiercely fought by Russian and Ukrainian forces for months, with Moscow seeing the capture of Bakhmut as a strategic goal and as a way to cut off Ukraine’s supply lines in Donetsk. Russian officials recently stated that Moscow’s forces have almost completely surrounded Bakhmut. On Wednesday, a special forces commander said Russian troops had now occupied several streets in the city.
Ukraine disputes how far Russia has advanced into Bakhmut, although Ukraine admits – according to Western defense analysts – that Russian forces are entering the city, after making small but gradually increased in the surrounding area.
However, Kyiv has vowed to fight for the time being, with Ukrainian President Zelenskyy last week declaring that “no one will give up on Bakhmut. We will fight for as long as possible. We consider Bakhmut to be Bakhmut.” his fortress.”
Meanwhile, Russia is throwing all the manpower and artillery it can into Bakhmut, as it wants to bring a victory to the Russian public ahead of the one-year anniversary of the “special military operation.” Moscow style on February 24.
Yuriy Sak, an adviser to Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense, told CNBC on Wednesday: “The Russians are desperately moving forward ahead of this one-year anniversary of the invasion. They’re really using everything they have in and around them. around Bakhmut”.
“We take this matter seriously, we understand that the enemy will not stop,” he noted, adding that “the Russians are hoping that [they] will break our defenses and they will go further [into Donetsk].”
Ukrainian soldiers outside the strategic city of Bakhmut on January 18, 2023, in Bakhmut, Ukraine.
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Sak said Russian forces suffered “incredible losses” in the process, as they deployed newly mobilized and inexperienced troops – many of whom were called up in the mobilization. partly announced by Russian President Vladimir Putin last September – into the fighting around Bakhmut.
“They didn’t even have time to prepare the newly mobilized soldiers. So they threw them [in] as cannon fodder and there are many pictures of the fields around Bakhmut littered with Russian corpses,” he noted.
Ukraine acknowledges the scale of the fighting in Bakhmut, and this week put the commander of Ukraine’s ground forces, General Oleksandr Syrskyi, in charge of local military operations.
Although Ukraine has previously viewed settlement withdrawal as a sensible strategy in the broader war, it is not yet ready to give up Bakhmut, Mr. Sak said. “This is not something that has been discussed. For now, the protection of Bakhmut continues.”
“The next few weeks will be really decisive, that’s what we can say for sure,” he added.
How long to keep?
The strategic value of Bakhmut to Russia is disputed, but analysts say Moscow sees the capture of Bakhmut as a way of cutting off Ukraine’s supply lines to the east and a gateway to the neighboring cities. larger city Kramatorsk and Sloviansk nearby.
Bakhmut was once a busy industrial center with a thriving salt industry, including the nearby small town of Soledar which was completely taken over by Russian forces in January. It is now virtually uninhabitable, The former population of about 73,000 people has been reduced to just a few thousand residents living without electricity and heating.
In December, President Zelenskyy said the city had been turned into “ruins”. after months of intense fighting.
Former Defense Minister of Ukraine Andriy Zagorodnyuk told CNBC that it is extremely important to protect each village, town and city in Ukraine, but sometimes strategic, emotional decisions must be made in regards to whether to continue fighting in some places. as in the case of Soledar.
“Certainly, at some point, there may be the question of whether it is worthwhile for the army to stay in Bakhmut,” he said. Zagorodnyuk said that Ukraine’s forces in Bakhmut were highly skilled and could avoid encirclement, but stressed that Ukraine wanted to preserve its troops.
“The Russians also accept any loss at the moment, their tolerance for loss is unlimited so they don’t care how many people they lose.” Wednesday.
“For us, it’s a completely different situation. We care how many people are going to lose, because it’s our people… So basically, at one point in time. there, there will be questions [over whether to pull out of Bakhmut]”, he said, noting that that point has not yet been reached.
Ukrainian servicemen from the artillery unit of the 80th Air Assault Brigade speak near Bakhmut, Ukraine, on February 7, 2023.
Yasuyoshi Chiba | afp | beautiful pictures
He commented that if Ukraine lost Bakhmut, it would not be “the end of the world”. “Not losing Bakhmut means the whole of Donbas [eastern region of Ukraine] Come on, we definitely can’t say that.”
“It’s a historic city, which means it’s on the crossroads of the main roads there. So yeah, its geography is important. And that’s one of the main reasons at the city. Why did people decide that it needs to be kept longer. But it’s not like we should accept any loss to keep it, absolutely not.”
Russia is quietly confident
In the meantime, Russia is quietly confident that it can capture Bakhmut, as it looks set to achieve some tangible “success” a year after its invasion of Ukraine – an act that has isolated Moscow on the international stage and deeply destabilizing its economy.
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu on Tuesday said military operations were progressing “successfully” around Vuhledar and Bakhmut – which Russia calls ‘Artemovsk.’ On Wednesday, Russian media reported comments from a Russian special forces commander who claimed Russian units were entering Bakhmut.
“Combat operations to blockade Artemovsk [Bakhmut] is being successfully implemented. Substantial progress has been made on the right side of the city. Several major streets have been occupied,” said Apty Alaudinov, commander of the Akhmat special forces, say on Telegramin the comments translated via Google and reported by Tass news agency.
Ukrainian servicemen dig trenches near Bakhmut on February 1, 2023, as they prepare for a Russian attack in the area.
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Many analysts have likened the “bakhmut battle” to a fierce and bloody war. muddled war of attrition Jamie Shea, a former NATO official and international security and defense expert at think tank Chatham House, commented on World War I, when Russia tried to slowly wear down Ukraine’s military. but certainly – a tactic that is said to have achieved a certain amount of success.
“Russia learned during the war that the best tactic was this slow, heavy casualties. [conflict] …that tries to crush Ukrainians village by village, which is what we see now in Donbas,” he told CNBC on Tuesday.
“They paid for it — they lost a lot of people, maybe even equipment. But at the end of the day, they got Soledar and they seemed to be very close to taking Bakhmut, maybe siege. The Ukrainians are defending Bakhmut. And, to be honest, and it’s not nice to say, they’re also killing a lot of Ukrainian soldiers.”
Ukrainian security forces talk to an elderly woman as the one year anniversary of the Russian-Ukrainian war approaches in Bakhmut, Ukraine on January 25, 2023. Much of the population has been evacuated as civilians struggling to continue their daily lives in Bakhmut, one of the fiercest front lines of the war.
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Shea said that the balance of forces is clearly tilted in Russia’s favor, noting that “Ukraine is less likely to lose troops than Russia. Russia is sacrificing conscripts in all of this, while Ukraine has its own set of challenges. their best army in Donbas, their warriors.”
Ukraine denies that its troops are in danger of being surrounded in Bakhmut. On Thursday morning, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine said in an update that the Russian army was “trying to take full control of Donetsk and Luhansk”, but that the Ukrainian army repelled attacks on Bakhmut and nearby settlements.
