PRETORIA, South Africa, 8 August 2022: South African Foreign Minister Naledi Pandor (R) and Foreign Minister Antony Blinken (L) attend the opening session of the strategic dialogue at the Bureau of International Cooperation and Relations South Africa.
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US Secretary of State Antony Blinken arrived in South Africa on Monday to begin a three-country tour as major powers jostle for influence in the continent.
The trip will also take the top US diplomat to the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Rwanda, and follows a recent trip by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, who visited Egypt, Uganda, Ethiopia and the Republic of Congo in July.
French President Emmanuel Macron recently visited Cameroon, Benin and Guinea-Bissau in an attempt to restore France’s relationship with the former colonies.
According to Alex Vines, Africa program director at Chatham House, the primary purpose of the trip – Blinken’s second since the Joe Biden administration took office – would be to try to curb geopolitical influence. of Russia and China on the continent.
“South Africa is a country that does not have a good relationship with the United States. The party of the government, the African National Congress, regularly issues statements critical of the United States, and so the effort there is to do so. to improve the relationship and at least have a more constructive dialogue with South Africa,” Vines told CNBC on Monday.
He suggests that this is why South Africa is Blinken’s first port of call and special attention will be focused on adjusting the two countries’ views on Russia’s war in Ukraine.
“There is a big difference between how Pretoria sees the Russia-Ukraine issue and Washington,” added Vines.
Military relations
Some African governments have been reluctant to publicly criticize Russia for its invasion of Ukraine, and Many abstained from a draft UN resolution in March condemning the Kremlin and called for the withdrawal of troops from Ukraine.
The resolution passed overwhelmingly with 141 countries voting in favor, but the African countries out of 34 abstained were: South Africa, Mali, Mozambique, Central African Republic, Angola, Algeria, Burundi, Madagascar, Namibia, Senegal, South Sudan, Sudan, Uganda, Tanzania and Zimbabwe.
Over the past few years, Russia has forged a number of military alliances with governments in African countries facing violent uprisings or political instability, including Libya, Mali, Sudan, the Republic of Central Africa and Mozambique.
Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov stated that his trip to Africa was not about Ukraine. Instead, he focused on Africa’s “intrinsic value” to Russia as a trading partner and highlighted the contracts Moscow has on the continent for food and fertilizer exports. and energy.
In a recent blog, European Council on Foreign Relations said that while that message was tailored to African sensibilities, the main objective of Mr Lavrov’s trip was “the political stage”.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov holds a press conference at the Russian Embassy in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia on July 27, 2022.
Minasse Wondimu Hailu | Anadolu Agency | beautiful pictures
“Despite the West’s efforts to isolate Russia in an all-out war with Ukraine, Lavrov is using Africa to prove that the country is,” said Theodore Murphy, Africa program director at ECFR. His company still has partners in several regions around the globe.
“The second goal of the trip is to expand Russia’s influence in Africa. Foreign Minister Lavrov hopes to achieve this by exploiting the strategic mistake made by the West in asking African countries to choose one. side than Ukraine.”
The center of hard power that Russia is using to infiltrate the region is Wagner group of private mercenaries, has been active in counter-insurgency operations in countries such as Mali, CAR and Libya. The Kremlin denies any association with the controversial group, which has been accused of human rights abuses.
Vines said the three countries on Blinken’s travel itinerary have been carefully selected and the DRC’s visit will likely focus on food security and peace and stability – given the new conflict in the eastern DRC as well. is believed to have involved Rwandan forces.
However, he added that much of Washington’s concern, as it has historically, will be focused on securing “strategic and important minerals.”
“The United States is concerned about those supply chains, doesn’t want them to fall into the hands of the Russians or the Chinese, and so foreign policy has really intensified,” he added.
“Ultimately Rwanda – it’s an ally of the United States but the situation worsens on the border area eastern Congo with Rwanda is worrying Washington, and so Antony Blinken will use his good offices, he will try to confront each other between Kinshasa and Kigali, and see if they can ease the tension between the two countries or not. ”
The UN has long had an important peacekeeping mission, MONUSCO, operating in the DRC. However, the government last week expelled spokesman Mathias Gillmann after protests against the mission, in which 36 people, including four UN peacekeepers, were killed.
Given that the United States is a major contributor to the UN, Vines suggests that this could also draw Washington’s attention in ensuring a de-escalation of tensions in the region.
‘Echos of the Cold War’
In discussing the importance of strategic and important minerals, Chatham House’s Vines admits that the situation has “Cold War echoes.”
However, he stressed that competition for geopolitical, economic and military influence on the African continent extends beyond the US, Russia and China. Notably, these countries include Turkey, the EU, the UK and even Japan, hosting the Eighth Tokyo International Conference on African Development in Tunis, Tunisia on August 27.
“Russia is trying but it doesn’t have the capacity and presence as it did in the Soviet Union, so it’s an annoyance but I don’t think it’s a long-term challenge on the African continent that way. . that was during the Cold War,” Vines said.
The sun sets over one of the opencast copper mines at Mutanda Mining Sarl on July 6, 2016 in Kolwezi, DRC. The mine is owned (69%) of Glencore, an Anglo-Swiss multinational mining and commodities trading company.
Per-Anders Pettersson | Getty Images News | beautiful pictures
While this is unlikely to manifest in the form of a hot war in Africa, he points to a number of “proxies” that have taken place in the form of the Wagner Group being present and involved in many issues. domestic or regional instability.
“What I think is more visible at the moment is the idea of securing important and strategic minerals and improving supply chains. You also see this in Asian countries like Japan – for example. such as being more active along the East African coast, including looking at minerals and energy supply – as well as several other countries,” said Vines.
“For example, the Gulf states are also looking to diversify the sources of food security as well as some minerals for their industrial complexes. I think this is where the competition comes in. will become much more acute, that is the trade diplomacy. of some countries, especially Russia, China, the United States.”
