After China’s military disaster, options narrow to win over Taiwan

Of China 72 hours scene Missiles, warships and jet fighters swarm Taiwan designed to create a firewall – a fiery, televised warning against what Beijing sees as increasingly recalcitrant , supported by Washingtonamong its claims to the island.

“We are maintaining a state of high alert, ready to fight at all times, able to fight at any time,” said Zu Guanghong, a Chinese navy captain in a statement. Video of the People’s Liberation Army about the exercises, which ended on Sunday. “We have the determination and ability to launch a painful direct attack against any aggressor that will destroy the unity of the motherland, and will show no mercy.”

But even if China’s show military might discourage other Western politicians from imitating Nancy Pelosi, who Beijing is outraged By visiting Taiwan, it also narrows its hopes of acquiring the island through negotiations. Beijing’s shock and fear tactics may deepen skepticism in Taiwan that it can reach a peaceful and lasting solution with the Chinese Communist Party, especially under Xi Jinping. Binh as leader.

Li Wen-te, a 63-year-old retired fisherman from Liuqiu, an island off the southwestern coast of Taiwan, said: “Nothing will change after the exercises, it will be like this and another way”. more than six miles from the Chinese exercises.

“They are bullying as always,” he said, adding a Chinese saying, “dig deep in soft soil,” which means “give them an inch and they will go a mile.”

Mr. Xi has now shown he is willing to use a fearsome military stick to try to hit back at what Beijing sees as a dangerous alliance of Taiwan’s opposition and US support. The PLA’s military drills in six areas around Taiwan, including joint air and sea drills aimed at cultivating long-range air strikes, allow the military to practice a blockade of the island. this in the event of an invasion.

In the face of such pressures, the carrot policy that China has used to convince Taiwan to move toward reunification may carry even less weight. In times of better relations than in the past, China welcomed Taiwan’s investment, agricultural goods, and leisure activities.

The results could add to the mutual distrust that some experts warn could, at the extreme, plunge Beijing and Washington into a full-blown conflict.

Kevin Rudd, a former Australian prime minister who served as a diplomat in Beijing, said: “It is not an explosion tomorrow, but it increases the overall probability of crisis, conflict or even war with the Americans over Taiwan”.

Taiwan has never been ruled by the Communist Party, but Beijing insists that it is a historical and legitimate part of Chinese territory. The Chinese Kuomintang forces that fled to Taiwan in 1949 after losing a civil war have also long asserted that the island is part of a greater China over which they have ruled.

But since Taiwan emerged as a democracy in the 1990s, more and more of its people find themselves with values ​​and cultures that are vastly different from those of the People’s Republic of China. That political skepticism toward authoritarian China has persisted and has deepened as Taiwan’s economic ties to the mainland have broadened.

“The appeal of carrots in China’s Taiwan policy – ​​the economic drivers – has now fallen to its lowest level since the end of the Cold War.” Wu Jieh-mina political scientist at Academia Sinica, Taiwan’s leading research institute.

“The card they hold now is to step up the military threats against Taiwan and continue to prepare militarily for the use of force, until one day, an attack,” he said. Comprehensive military entry into Taiwan becomes a favorable option. “

Since the late 1970s, Deng Xiaoping and other Chinese leaders have been trying to convince Taiwan to accept reunification under the “one country, two systems” framework that promises legal autonomy, religion, economic policy and other areas as long as the island accepts Chinese sovereignty. .

But in increasingly democratic Taiwan, few see themselves as proud, future Chinese citizens. Support for Beijing’s proposals even declines after 2020, when China imposes a crackdown on Hong Kong, eroding the freedoms the former British colony was promised. appointments within the framework of their own version.

Mr. Xi has continued to promise Taiwan a “one country, two systems” agreement and that he may return to providing economic and political incentives to Taiwan, if he can influence the situation. the island’s presidential election in early 2024.

Taiwan’s current president, Tsai Ing-wen, had to step down after her second term ended that year. And a potential successor from her Democratic Progressive Party, which rejects the “one China” principle and favors independence, could be more tenacious towards Beijing.

In the years following that election, China’s leaders may “want to show some significant leap forward towards Taiwan, not necessarily unification, but some results.” there,” Wang Hsin-hsien, a professor at National Chengchi University in Taipei who studies Chinese politics. “Xi Jinping is the type of person who takes revenge with revenge and repays kindness, but when revenge is paid, it will be repaid twice.”

One puzzle that remains on Taiwan is whether Mr. Xi has a timetable in mind. He proposed his vision of China’s “rejuvenation” into a prosperous, powerful global power entirely dependent on reunification with Taiwan. The rejuvenation will be achieved by mid-century, he said, so some see that time as the outer limit for his Taiwan ambitions.

Mr. Rudd, a former Australian prime minister and now president of the Asia Association, said: “We now have a 27-year fuse that can burn slowly or burn quickly. “The time to worry is the early 2030s, because you’re near the 2049 countdown, but you’re also in the middle of nowhere. The political life of Xi Jinping. “

In a working program setting Taiwan policy speech in 2019Mr. Xi reaffirmed that China hopes to reunify with Taiwan peacefully, but will not rule out arms.

He also called for exploring ways to update what the “one country, two systems” arrangement for Taiwan would look like, and the Chinese government has appointed scholars to participate in the project. Such plans, Xi said, “must fully consider the reality of Taiwan, and also benefit long-term order and stability in Taiwan after reunification.”

“I still believe that military capability is primarily calibrated as a deterrent,” said Willian Klein, a former US diplomat posted in Beijing who now works for FGS Global, a consulting firm, mentions China’s buildup. “Their strategy is to narrow the range of possible outcomes to the point where their desired outcome becomes a reality.”

But the proposals Chinese scholars make about Taiwan highlight the gap between what Beijing has in mind and what most Taiwanese can accept.

China studies suggest appointing Chinese officials to maintain control over Taiwan, especially if Beijing gains control by force; others say China must impose national security laws on Taiwan – like the one it applied to Hong Kong in 2020 – to punish those who resist Chinese rule.

Zhou Yezhong, a prominent law professor at Wuhan University, wrote in a recent article: “It must be admitted that it will be much more difficult to govern Taiwan than Hong Kong, even in terms of geographical scope. political reasons or conditions”Outline for China’s unificationWhich he co-wrote with another scholar.

Taiwanese society, they wrote, must be “reunified” in order to adopt orthodox Chinese values ​​and to “fundamentally transform the political environment that has long been shaped by the ideas of “Taiwan independence”. create “.”

China’s ambassador to France, Lu Shaye, said in a television interview last week that the people of Taiwan have been brainwashed by pro-independence ideas.

“I’m sure as long as they get their education back, the Taiwanese public will once again become patriots,” he said in the interview. shared on his embassy website. “Not through intimidation, but through re-education.”

Opinion polls of Taiwanese people show that few have a desire to unify on Chinese terms. In the latest opinion survey from National Chengchi University, 1.3% of respondents support reunification as soon as possible, 5.1% want independence as soon as possible. Most of the rest want some version of the ambiguous status quo.

“I cherish our freedom of speech and don’t want to be unified by China,” said Huang Chiu-hong, 47, owner of a shop selling fried twine, a local snack, in Liuqiu, the island Taiwan. .

She said she had been trying to see the People’s Liberation Army in action out of curiosity, but saw nothing at a pavilion overlooking the sea.

“It seems some people are concerned,” she said. “For me, it’s just a small episode in ordinary Taiwanese life.”