A sense of proportion – Rise with that?

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach

Let me start with a simple fact. The Earth has warmed for about 300 years, since the depths of the Little Ice Age in 1700AD.

Figure 1. Ljungqvist et al. estimates of Northern Hemisphere temperatures from AD 1 to 1999, covered by ice cores and modern observational data for CO2.

But is this warming significant? We usually treat charts like the following, showing different estimates of modern warming.

Figure 2. Three modern estimates of warming since 1850.

Questioning whether these estimates are hopelessly contaminated by urban warming (most probably are), the question remains – is this warming in the big real world? to what extent?

One way to look at this is to look at a country’s usual range of average temperatures. For example here are US monthly minimum and maximum temperatures. Contrary to my usual practice, I have them set to F, for no other reason than the US uses…

Figure 3. Mean monthly maximum (red) and minimum (blue) temperatures in the United States, along with the LOWEST smoothness for each temperature (red/black and blue/black lines).

You can still see a slight increase since 1840… and you can see that it is small compared to the maximum temperature and temperature range.

But no one experienced average temperatures. So, to put the modest temperature increase in more precise context, here are the daily maximum and minimum temperatures since 1945 in Chicago…

Figure 4. Actual maximum (red) and minimum (blue) daily temperatures for Chicago, along with LOW smoothness for each temperature (red/black and blue/black lines).

Because this is not an average, there is more variation in the LOWEST smoothness of the temperature. And yes, the maximum and minimum temperatures in Chicago did indeed warm in that record time… but as you can see, if we had never invented the thermometer, no one would have known about it. change because it is so small compared to the average daily temperature fluctuations. The daily temperature variation from minimum to maximum in Chicago has an average value of 55°F (range 31°C), but it often goes up to 70°F (range 39°C).

Figure 5. Violin chart of daily temperature variation in Chicago. The black box in the middle shows the “interquartile range”, the range containing half the value. The white bar shows the divider. The width of the “violin” at any given point shows the relative amount of temperature change of that dimension.

This is a fairly typical range for a temperate location… and with such large daily fluctuations, a temperature increase of about one degree in a hundred years would be imperceptible without careful attention. thermometer.

Finally, the earth’s climate is a giant heat engine. A heat engine converts energy into motion. Climate converts solar energy into the constant motion of the oceans and atmosphere. We’re interested in things like energy imbalances at the top of the atmosphere.

And to analyze a heat engine, we cannot use either the Fahrenheit or the Celsius temperature scale. The only temperature scale that gives answers to heat engine questions is the Kelvin scale, which starts at degrees. absolute zero (-273.15°C, or -459.67°F). Here’s the Chicago data from above, just this time in Kelvins.

Figure 6. As shown in Figure 4, except in Kelvins

I keep that:

• The five percent per decade warming shown in Figure 6 is further evidence that, as I have detailed this, this, thisand no less than 60 other linked posts thisThe Earth has an air-conditioning system that keeps the temperature very stable.

• As a study in the British medical journal Lancet showed, mild warmth saved far more lives than it cost.

Figure 7. List of heat and cold deaths.

• In the most recent IPCC Assessment Report (AR6), the only time IPCC used the term “climate crisis” or “climate emergency” against the media and others about spreading alarmism.

• As I detailed this with dozens and dozens of graphs from scientific studies, There is no climate emergency. You have been tricked by climate warningers who are getting more and more desperate to keep the river of taxpayer money flowing into their pockets. Will they change their ways? No possibility. As Upton Sinclair noted a while ago,

It is very difficult to make a man understand something when his salary depends on him not understanding it.

• Half a century of effort to impact the climate through CO2 emission reductions, carbon taxes and carbon offsets and endless speeches about “TEN YEARS TO THERMAGEDDON™! EVERYONE PANIC! ” and the mysterious mantras of “Net-Zero” and “personal carbon footprint” do absolutely nothing to change the temperature. Zero. Zip. No. Nihil. Rien. Nichts. Trillions of dollars have been wasted that could have provided a better life for millions of people on the planet.

• Finally, if you still really think the frantic war against carbon dioxide is worth fighting, I beg you, I beg you, DO NOT do it by increasing the cost of energy. That is most regressive tax You can imagine, hitting the poorer and the poorest. I discuss this in detail in my post.”We met 1% and he is us“.

And that, dear friends, am I providing some necessary perspective on the question of the frenzied war against carbon dioxide.

And here, on our hillside in the redwoods, I just finished replacing the last five picks on the deck railing.

Life is good.

My greetings and best wishes to all,

w.