The Week That Was: 2023-01-21 (January 21, 2023)
Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org)
The Science and Environmental Policy Project
Quote of the Week: “If there is something very slightly wrong in our definition of the theories, then the full mathematical rigor may convert these errors into ridiculous conclusions.” —Richard Feynman, Lectures on Gravitation.
Number of the Week:600,000 Hiroshima sized atomic bombs per day.
THIS WEEK:
By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)
Scope: The following issues will be discussed. TWTW had intended to review Tim Palmer’s book, highly praised by recent Nobel laureates in physics: The Primacy of Doubt: From Quantum Physics to Climate Change. How the Science of Uncertainty Can Help Us Understand Our Chaotic World in context of an interview of Richard Lindzen. However, their approach to understanding the atmosphere is so different that it is as if Palmer and Lindzen are on different planets with different atmospheres. Instead, TWTW will review Palmer’s book in context of Thomas Sowell’s 1995 book: The Vision of the Anointed: Self-Congratulation as a Basis for Social Policy.
Planning Engineer Russell Schussler cited Sowell’s book in explaining the two different approaches in addressing the problems that placing more wind and solar on the grid is causing to the grid. In “Academics and the Grid Part 3: Visionaries and Problem Solvers” Schussler describes these two groups and the possible consequences.
Jennifer Marohasy begins a series on surface measurement of temperatures by discussing that one of the issues regarding claims that a recent year was hotter than previous years is a change in the instruments used to measure temperatures and the appropriate procedures that should be followed after making a switch, but, at least in some cases, are not.
Roy Spencer begins a two-part series on the characteristics of urbanization at or near surface weather stations that record high temperatures. According to Spencer, “current homogenization techniques can remove abrupt changes in station data but cannot correct for any sources of slowly-increasing spurious warming.” Spencer uses the U.S. Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN) dataset which is maintained by NOAA. As Spencer cites, Anthony Watts and his team have pointed out that most of the stations surveyed do not meet the standards required by NOAA regulations.
Meteorologist Cliff Mass who specializes in the US Northwest reports that with the recent snow and rain the drought in California is over, even though the official record keepers do not realize it.
Meteorologist Art Horn discusses a lengthy chronology available on the web that covers early weather events from about the time of Christ to 1900. This may be a valuable resource in checking claims that a certain extreme weather event is “unprecedented,” that is never had been known to occur before.
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Rigor Without Math: Since the time of Galileo, mathematics has been considered the language of science. Unfortunately, like every other language, it can mislead and deceive. Or as Richard Feynman has said:
“The first principle is that you must not fool yourself and you are the easiest person to fool.”
This caution applies to mathematical modelers. In the 1970s and 80s, a fashionable concept among economists was the “balanced budget multiplier,” if a central government expanded taxes and spending equally, the budget could be balanced, and prosperity increased. The most extreme example was the Soviet Union, a non-market economy where the government controlled the major taxing and spending. Many noted economists claimed the Soviet economy was comparable, or even better, than the US economy. However, when the Soviet economy imploded, the balanced budget multiplier quietly disappeared from the textbooks.
An outstanding economist who gained notice at the time is Thomas Sowell. As his career developed, he moved from using equations, graphs, and jargon to explain difficult economic concepts by using plain, clear English. He was able to explain concepts that largely eluded others, such as the ones he articulates in his 1995 book: The Vision of the Anointed: Self-Congratulation as a Basis for Social Policy.
Later he wrote Basic Economics: A Citizen’s Guide to the Economy. It took him ten years and he considered it the most demanding project he ever undertook. In Basic Economics, Sowell draws examples from around the world and from history because:
“…the basic principles of economics are not limited to modern capitalist societies and apply even to situations where no money changes hands, such as caring for wounded soldiers on a battlefield. The focus of Basic Economics is not on how individuals make money but on how whole societies create prosperity or poverty for their peoples by the way they organize their economies. Prosperous countries with few natural resources, such as Japan and Switzerland, are as common as poor countries with rich resources, such as Russia and Mexico.” (From the dust jacket.)
The Vision of the Anointed is:
“…a devastating critique of the mindset behind the failed social policies of the past thirty years. Author Thomas Sowell sees what has happened not as a series of isolated mistakes but as a logical consequence of a vision whose defects have led to disasters in education, crime, family disintegration, and other social pathology.
“This is an empirical study in which ‘politically correct’ theory is repeatedly confronted with facts – and the sharp contradictions between the two explained in terms of whole set of self-congratulatory assumptions held by political and intellectual elites. These elites – the anointed – often consider themselves ‘thinking people’ but much of what is called thinking turns out, on examination, to be rhetorical assertion followed by evaluations of mounting evidence against these assertions.” (From the dust jacket)
In particular, Chapter 4 covers “The Irrelevance of Evidence.” Sowell notes that:
“Factual evidence and logical arguments are often not merely lacking but ignored in many discussions by those with the vision of the anointed. Much that is said by the anointed in the outward form of an argument turns out not to be arguments at all. Often the logical structure of an argument is replaced by preemptive rhetoric or, where an argument is made, its validity remains unchecked against any evidence, even when such evidence is abundant. Evidence is often particularly abundant when it comes to statements about history, yet the anointed have repeatedly been as demonstrably wrong about the past as about the present or the future – and as supremely confident.” (p. 64) [Boldface added]
See link under Challenging the Orthodoxy. Page references apply to the version cited.
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The Primacy of Doubt: The above paragraph neatly summarizes what is disturbing about the beautifully written, superbly argued, and highly praised: The Primacy of Doubt: From Quantum Physics to Climate Change. How the Science of Uncertainty Can Help Us Understand Our Chaotic World – contradictory physical evidence is ignored.
Tim Palmer divides his book into three parts: 1) The Science of Uncertainty; 2) Predicting Our Chaotic World; and 3) Understanding the Chaotic Universe and Our Place in It. In the beginning of part 3, he writes:
“A caveat: the discussion in Part III is much more speculative than Parts I and II.” (p. 199)
The question is are Parts I and II factual – consistent with all physical evidence from experiments and observations? Part I is a theoretical discussion of Chaos, the Geometry of Chaos, the problems of turbulence in fluids, nonlinear systems where numerical precision is impossible, and possible solution to quantum uncertainty – the use of an ensemble of systems (ensemble of models). Palmer states:
“Now you see why quantum physics fits so easily into a book focusing on ensemble forecasting for weather and climate prediction.” (p. 73)
One of the problems created by those addressing issues arising from the ensemble of models (systems) is that modelers claim that the results are dependent on the initial conditions and dismiss the issues. (Nonlinear systems are not deterministic, where a unique solution can be found.)
It is not until the second chapter in Part II, “Climate Change; Catastrophe or Just Lukewarm?” that TWTW found major problems in accepting the claims in the book. In this section Palmer writes:
“Directly from this effect, a doubling of carbon dioxide from pre-industrial times will warm the surface of the Earth by a little more than 1°C – perhaps not something to make a big deal of. Here the minimalists are correct.” (p. 113)
Palmer then discusses the experiments of John Tyndall, discussed in previous TWTWs, who found that the dominant greenhouse gas is water vapor. Palmer argues we should be worried that an increase temperatures from carbon dioxide will then cause an increase in water vapor resulting in an amplification of the greenhouse effect, as stated in the 1979 Charney Report also discussed in previous TWTWs. Palmer goes on to write:
“The greenhouse effect from this extra water vapor increases the warming of the air from carbon dioxide alone. The direct warming due to a doubling of carbon dioxide is a little over 1°C. However, if we add this water vapor feedback, the warming doubles to just over 2°C (3.6°F). If we also take into account the fact that reflective ice and snow cover on the Earth’s surface start to disappear as the Earth gets warmer, so that more of the sun’s energy is absorbed at the surface, the warming increases to about 2.5°C (4.5°F). Now climate change starts to become something to worry about.’ (p. 114)
Thus, not only do the forecasts of an ensemble of climate models give results that starts to give rise to concern about warming from rising carbon dioxide, but Tim Palmer’s discussion also gives grounds for assessing the reliability of the ensemble of the models against physical evidence. TWTW has no issue with the warming calculated from a doubling of CO2, but it takes issue with the warming from an increase in water vapor caused by CO2 warming and a subsequent warming of the Arctic.
In reverse order, as stated in the October 29 TWTW, Professor Wyss Yim of Hong Kong University compellingly described a warming of the oceans from submerged volcanoes in both the Pacific and the Atlantic. This warming is separate and distinct from the naturally occurring El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). It is false to attribute it to greenhouse gas warming because infrared radiation, the energy of greenhouse warming, cannot penetrate the oceans by more than a millimeter (0.04 inches).
Since the 1979 Charney Report, Roy Spencer and John Christy developed a way of using data collected by satellites to measure atmospheric temperature trends. These show a warming of 0.13°C, far less than that attributed to a warming from carbon dioxide and water vapor asserted by Palmer. Further, for over 50 years researchers have been using data from spectroscopic instruments on weather balloons to measure changes in the greenhouse effect from all major greenhouse gases, the HITRAN database used by van Wijngaarden and Happer. No one has been able to detect a significant increase in water vapor which amplifies the carbon dioxide greenhouse effect discussed by Palmer.
For these reasons, TWTW considers the Climate Change section in Palmer’s book as speculation contradicted by physical evidence, no matter how brilliantly written and highly praised. See link under Defending the Orthodoxy and appropriate TWTWs. Page references apply to the version cited.
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Visionaries and Problem Solvers: Planning Engineer Russell Schussler begins his new essay:
“The potential of climate change with an unworkable grid is the most frightening potential scenario of all. We need visionaries and problem solvers to avoid this scenario.
“This is the third installment in a series concerning academics and the grid. Part 1 observed that it was frequently the case that an academic paper which solved some component of a problem integrating a’ green’ resource would be interpreted to imply that all problems associated with integrating that ‘green’ resource had been solved. Part 2 looked at the large body of papers published on the net zero transition and noted most of the attention was on smaller components, while the larger problems associated with the grid were ignored. This body of research as a whole generate serious misimpressions by distracting from the major concerns and causing policy makers to discount the significant challenges ahead in increasing renewable penetration.
“In the previous post “Academics and the Grid Part 2: Are They Studying the Right Things?” it was noted that researchers on grid issues related to an energy transition, could be roughly divided into two camps. I referred to the first of these groups as Visionaries and the second group as Problem Solvers. The study work and recommendations from these two groups are approached in different ways, have differing audiences and unfortunately are unequal in impacting energy policy.
“Problem Solvers tend to work on present and emerging challenges. These are highly technical academics, engineers, and scientists. They tend to look for solutions to emerging problems without questioning their drivers. Problem solvers ask themselves how do we better adapt to the increase wind and solar we are seeing on the grid. For the most part they do not question or endorse the emerging trends. They see their work as important for maintaining the grid. While they are our best hope for adapting to change, some may see them as tools of the industry with too narrow a focus.
“Visionaries are idealistic and consequently more likely to advance research and development to achieve greater societal goals. They see their work as necessary for the planet as a whole. They advocate for lowering carbon emissions and promote research to facilitate the goal of CO2 reduction. The Visionaries share the perspective that the ‘green energy’ transition lies somewhere between ‘we can do this’ to ‘once we get this going, we will figure it all out and the benefits will be enormous.’”
Later Schussler discusses the difference in mathematical skills between the visionaries and problem solvers as they apply to the grid:
I will note that the mathematics used by the Academics to look at resource replacement, backup and transmission doesn’t go much beyond arithmetic with maybe some probability and statistics. Even then the study work is often done by modelling software. The mathematics needed for Problem Solvers to address the major concerns span mathematics from arithmetic to algebra, trigonometry, calculus, and differential equations. It may be too much to expect that many Academics with technological knowledge and capabilities would devote their efforts to sabotaging their career.
Schussler makes excellent points in discussion of conspiracy theories:
“I am greatly suspicious of ‘conspiracy theories.’ I can’t believe that any parts of the green movement or any governments are plotting to bring down the grid and set back industrialized civilization. But if they were, a good strategy would look a lot like what we are seeing. How might one seek to turn the economic and reliable grid into a costly, complicated system prone to blackouts? Discarding dependable generators and replacing with asynchronous intermittent technology would be a good way. To support this transition and forestall questions, in the public arena, have reputable scientists (Academics) pick small problems and show that they might be solved. This work will distract from the real problems. Examining the challenges evaluated by the Academics, the transition might look doable. In the background technical experts (the Problem Solvers) work on forestalling the problems that will soon become insurmountable. While the grid transition is not a nefarious plot, we might be better off it was. As Dietrich Bonhoeffer described malice may be a lesser enemy that what we face. Dealing with well-intentioned but misled true believers who become more strident and committed in the face of increasing evidence of the short comings may be a much more alarming scenario than what is described in this paragraph.”
Schussler concludes with:
‘We are a long way from figuring out how to solve for a net zero grid in terms of just theory and what might work on paper for many fundamental emerging grid problems. Work is underway on the puzzle pieces with mixed results. How they might fit together takes it to another level. The challenges of a quick transition to a net zero carbon grid dwarf the complexities of the Kemper [carbon capture] and Ivanpah [central solar] projects. Bright engineers, scientists and academics are working on the challenges, but they don’t trumpet their concerns as do those with ‘victories’ on smaller problems. It almost seems at time as if all the flash and attention is focused on the more ‘minor’ successes to distract an audience from the more serious concerns emerging from wind and solar. The Visionaries will have their vision and Problem Solvers will be committed to their problems. Who will tie true vision to the actual problems? It will be dangerous if policy makers are swayed by those who are overly optimistic. We can’t survive a grid transformation that looked good on paper but in the end turns out to be as disastrous as Kemper and Ivanpah.’
The physical evidence showing the benefits of adding carbon dioxide to the atmosphere are clear, the harms claimed are highly questionable, and the path to Net Zero is fraught with danger. See link under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
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Surface Measurements: Issues with ground-air measurements at the surface are being separately explored by Jennifer Marohasy and Roy Spencer. Marohasy is examining the discrepancies in the temperatures being recorded by The Australian Bureau of Meteorology in homogenization:
“…stripping away the natural warming and cooling cycles that correspond with periods of drought and flooding), and also by scratching historical hottest day records, then there is the setting of limits on how cold a temperature can now be recorded and also by replacing mercury thermometers with temperature probes that are purpose-built, as far as I can tell, to record hotter for the same weather.”
Marohasy shows how changing instruments from mercury thermometers to temperature probes changes high temperatures.
“There is a discrepancy because the value on the ‘latest observations’ page is the last one second reading for that 30-minute period, while the value entered into the permanent archive is the highest one second reading for the entire day.”
“The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) provides a clear definitions of daily maximum temperature. This temperature can be read directly from a mercury thermometer, but when using a temperature probe ‘instantaneous’ values must be averaged over one to ten minutes.”
Spencer cites the discrepancies by Anthony Watts in poor placement of instruments in U.S. Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN). However, he writes:
“I’ve taken a different approach by using global datasets of population density and, more recently, analysis of high-resolution Landsat satellite-based measurements of Global Human Settlements “Built-Up” areas. I have also started analyzing weather station data (mostly from airports) which have hourly time resolution, instead of the usual daily maximum and minimum temperature data (Tmax, Tmin) measurements that make up current global land temperature datasets. The hourly data stations are, unfortunately, fewer in number but have the advantage of better maintenance since they support aviation safety and allow examination of how UHI effects vary throughout the day and night.”
Spencer finds:
“There are a few important and interesting things to note …”
1. Few GHCN station locations are truly rural: 13.2% are less than 5% urbanized, while 68.4% are less than 10% urbanized.
2. Virtually all station locations have experienced an increase in building, and none have decreased (which would require a net destruction of buildings, returning the land to its natural state).
3. Greatest growth has been in areas not completely rural and not already heavily urbanized…. That is, very rural locations stay rural, and heavily urbanized locations have little room to grow anyway.”
“In Part II I will examine how GHCN station temperature trends relate to station urbanization for a variety of countries, in both the raw (unadjusted) temperature data and in the homogenized (adjusted) data, and also look at how growth in urbanization compares to average urbanization.”
See links under Measurement Issues — Surface
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Changing Climate and Weather: For the chronological listing of early weather events, which TWTW has not reviewed see links under Changing Climate. For evidence supporting the assertion by Cliff Mass that the California Drought is over see links under Changing Weather.
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Number of the Week: 600,000 Hiroshima sized atomic bombs per day. The 2023 multi-ring climate circus has begun in Davos, Switzerland, at the World Economic Forum (WEF), as an assembly of hundreds of private jet nearby demonstrates. Perhaps many believe that such a display of private wealth is proof that the attendees understand how economic systems work and how personal consumption of hydrocarbon fuels is wrecking the world’s economies.
A lead attendee is The Anointed Al Gore who declared that the human-caused greenhouse effect is having the impact of exploding 600,000 Hiroshima sized atomic bombs per day and causing the oceans to boil. TWTW did not run the calculations but wonders what Al Gore thinks of that giant thermonuclear object in the sky – the Sun. See links under Below the Bottom Line and Article #1
Censorship
Activist fact-checkers are misleading the public on polar bear numbers
By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, Jan 16, 2023
Challenging the Orthodoxy — NIPCC
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science
Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2013
Summary: https://www.heartland.org/_template-assets/documents/CCR/CCR-II/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Biological Impacts
Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2014
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/climate-change-reconsidered-ii-biological-impacts/
Summary: https://www.heartland.org/media-library/pdfs/CCR-IIb/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels
By Multiple Authors, Bezdek, Idso, Legates, and Singer eds., Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change, April 2019
http://store.heartland.org/shop/ccr-ii-fossil-fuels/
Download with no charge:
Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming
The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus
By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), Nov 23, 2015
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/
Download with no charge:
https://www.heartland.org/policy-documents/why-scientists-disagree-about-global-warming
Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate
S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008
http://www.sepp.org/publications/nipcc_final.pdf
Global Sea-Level Rise: An Evaluation of the Data
By Craig D. Idso, David Legates, and S. Fred Singer, Heartland Policy Brief, May 20, 2019
The Vision Of The Anointed: Self-congratulation As A Basis For Social Policy Hardcover
By Thomas Sowell, Basic Books, 1995
Academics and the Grid Part 3: Visionaries and Problem Solvers
By Planning Engineer Russell Schussler, Climate Etc., Jan 15, 2023
Unsettled: Climate and Science | Dr. Steven Koonin
By Jordan Peterson, Via WUWT, Jan 17, 2023
To be reviewed in the next TWTW.
The Climate Feedback Debate
By Bob Irvine, WUWT, Jan 18, 2023
Oxford Union Debate On Fighting Climate Change
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That. Jan 16, 2023
Climate Scientists Using Grossly Simplified, Deplorably Unrealistic Models And Assumptions
By Fred F. Mueller, Via P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Jan 18, 2023
Climate science stance amounts to a gross misrepresentation of reality
The DIY way to demystify “greenhouse gas” claims
A DIY Guide To Demystifying “Greenhouse Gas” Claims…The Science That Cuts Corners
By Fred F. Mueller, Via P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Jan 14, 2023
The Logic Of Global Warming, A.K.A. Climate Crisis, Propaganda
By William Briggs, His Blog, Jan 13, 2023
Provocative video forty years ago.
Defending the Orthodoxy
The Primacy of Doubt: From Quantum Physics to Climate Change. How the Science of Uncertainty Can Help Us Understand Our Chaotic World
By Tim Palmer, Basic Books, 2022
Amazon: https://www.amazon.com/Primacy-Doubt-Quantum-Uncertainty-Understand/dp/1541619714
State of the climate: How the world warmed in 2022
By Zeke Hausfather, Carbon Brief, Jan 18, 2023
“Ocean heat content: It was the warmest year on record for ocean heat content, which increased notably between 2021 and 2022.”
“A persistent triple-dip La Niña: The year ended up cooler than it would otherwise be due to persistent La Niña conditions in the tropical Pacific. Carbon Brief finds that 2022 would have been the second warmest year on record after 2020 in the absence of short-term variability from El Niño and La Niña events.”
[SEPP Comment: Amazing, ocean heat content increases with increasing cooling La Niñas?]
UN chief: Global commitment to limiting temperature rise ‘nearly going up in smoke’
By Julia Mueller, The Hill, Jan 18, 2023
Defending the Orthodoxy – Bandwagon Science
Three Climate Reports: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly
Some progress was made in 2022, but the forecast still looks bleak.
By Elizabeth Kolbert, The New York, Jan 11, 2023
https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/three-climate-reports-the-good-the-bad-and-the-ugly
Questioning the Orthodoxy
Do we truly know the cost of net zero?–Ross Clark
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That. Jan 17, 2023
“ESG Check in”: More details on the Securities & Exchange Commission’s Activist Role in the “Whole of Government” Push on ESG, “Climate Risk Disclosure”
By Staff, Government Accountability & Oversight (private group), Jan 16, 2023
Long live communism
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Jan 18, 2023
“At CDN we frequently find ourselves having to argue that climate alarmism isn’t a cynical plot. It’s a sincere and dangerous error pushed by fatuous but absolutely earnest people.”
Guest Post: Why Climate Skepticism Has Not Yet Succeeded
By Viscount Christopher Monckton of Benchley, Via Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, Jan 15, 2023
https://www.manhattancontrarian.com/blog/2023-1-15-guest-post-why-climate-skepticism-has-not-yet-succeeded
Climate Activism Isn’t About the Planet. It’s About the Boredom of the Bourgeoisie
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That. Jan 16, 2023
Energy and Environmental Review: January 16, 2023
By John Droz, Jr., Master Resource, Jan 16, 2023
After Paris!
It’s a cult: The WEF are the “select few” touched as saviors of the world to master the future
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Jan 20, 2023
Do Better, Peasants!
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That. Jan 19, 2023
Problems in the Orthodoxy
China Posts Record Fossil Fuel Output
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That. Jan 17, 2023
Intellectual Climate Debate: The Alarmists are Alarmed
By Robert Bradley Jr., Master Resource, Jan 18, 2023
Seeking a Common Ground
Climate Uncertainty and Risk: in press
By Judith Curry, Climate Etc. Jan 17, 2023
Rapid technological innovation – not harmful renewables policy – key to lighting our energy future
By Judith Curry, Climate Etc. Jan 20, 2023
“Here is the text of my latest oped for Australia’s Sky News:”
Models v. Observations
IPCC Climate Models Grossly Exaggerate ‘Global Warming’
By Jerome Corsi, American Thinker, Jan 18, 2023
https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2023/01/ipcc_climate_models_grossly_exaggerate_global_warming.html
Hyping Daily Maximum Temperatures (Part 1)
By Jennifer Marohasy, Her Blog, Jan 19, 2023
Urbanization Effects on GHCN Temperature Trends, Part I: The Urbanization Characteristics of the GHCN Stations
By Roy Spencer, His Blog, Jan 14, 2023
The On-Going Case for Abandoning Homogenization of Australian Temperature Data
By Bill Johnston, Former weather observer and NSW Department of Natural Resources research scientist., WUWT, Jan 15, 2023
Settled Science
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Jan 18, 2023
The California Drought is Over. Definitively.
By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, Jan 19, 2023
https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2023/01/the-california-drought-is-over.html
A Superfront Will Reach the Northwest Coast on Wednesday Morning
By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, Jan17, 2023
https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2023/01/a-superfront-will-reach-northwest-coast.html
“Most weather fronts that reach the Northwest coast are generally wimpy.
“Only a slight change in temperature, a minor wind shift, and a modest change in humidity.
“Quite a contrast to the often-strong fronts of the central and eastern U.S.”
Winters may be about to get colder
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Jan 18, 2023
“Because so often in climate science we don’t hear predictions from scientists who are offering a theory about how the system works and a way of testing their theory against reality, instead we hear fatuous claims of being able to explain what happened last week from scientists who never say in advance what will happen but after it’s over claim that it’s all your fault.”
Changing Climate
We exist in the dim future.
By Meteorologist Art Horn, ICECAP, Jan 14, 2023
http://icecap.us/index.php/go/new-and-cool/we_exist_in_the_dim_future/
Link to: A Chronological Listing of Early Weather Events, 7th edition
By James A. Marusek, 2010
http://www.breadandbutterscience.com/Weather.pdf
Twelve centuries of snowfall severity in the Mediterranean region
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Jan 18, 2023
From the CO2Science archive
Changing Climate – Cultures & Civilizations
LIA Megadroughts In India
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That. Jan 18, 2023
Link to paper: A global context for megadroughts in monsoon Asia during the past millennium
By Manfred Mudelsee, Quaternary Science Reviews. 2011
https://www.academia.edu/25345390/A_global_context_for_megadroughts_in_monsoon_Asia_during_the_past_millennium?email_work_card=view-paper
Changing Seas
Observed vs. Imagined Sea Levels 2022 Update
By Ron Clutz, Science Matters, Jan 20, 2023
New Study Indicates North American Pacific Coast Sea Levels Declining From 1952-2014
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Jan 16, 2023
[SEPP Comment: The most recent study was along Peru, in South America.]
Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice
2,000 gigatons of plant wrecking CO2 and Icebergs around Antarctica are the same as the 1700s
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Jan 14, 2023
Here comes the pack ice for the Canadian East Coast
By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, Jan 17, 2023
Lowering Standards
Cooking With Gas
By Chuck Dinerstein, ACSH, Jan 17, 2023
https://www.acsh.org/news/2023/01/17/cooking-gas-16809
“So polluted that ‘more than 12% of current childhood asthma cases in the US can be attributed to gas stove use.’ Could that be true? Only if you believe in Mathmagic.”
[SEPP Comment: Mathmagic (conclusions based on using rigorous math on poorly conceived concepts) is the breeding ground for many government new regulations. There is no reason to believe that those who use it know what they are talking about.]
Stanford University’s Fickle Commitment To Science, Part 2
By Henry I. Miller, ACSH, Jan 17, 2023
https://www.acsh.org/news/2023/01/17/stanford-university%E2%80%99s-fickle-commitment-science-part-2-16755
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Yellow (Green) Journalism?
Wrong, Media and COP-27, Africa Is Not De-Carbonizing, Oil Exploration Is Expanding
By Linnea Lueken, Climate Realism, Jan 17, 2023
Hottest coldest driest wettest year ever
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Jan 18, 2023
Tears on TV: the living hell and horror of delivering a 40C forecast
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Jan 19, 2023
LA Times Flawed Year 2022 Climate Alarmist Propaganda Editorial
By Larry Hamlin, WUWT, Jan 20, 2023
Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.
BBC Caught Using Photoshopped Image
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That. Jan 18, 2023
Analysis: State anti-ESG laws could cost taxpayers hundreds of millions
By Zack Budryk, The Hill, Jan 13, 2023
Link to Executive: Memorandum
By Staff, The Sunrise Project, Jan 12, 2023
[SEPP Comment: False assumption, that the actions remove financial companies from the marketplace.]
Who To Believe? The BBC Or Your Lyin’ Eyes?
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That. Jan 20, 2023
“Gaslighting is defined as manipulating someone so as to make them question their own reality:”
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda
Wrong, Washington Post – History and Data Contradict Claims of Worsening ‘Atmospheric Rivers’
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Jan 19, 2023
“Geologists at the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) have drilled to get core samples in San Francisco Bay and in lake and marsh sediments throughout California. They positively identified the stream gravels deposited by the Great Flood of 1862. They also discovered that similar and even more devastating flooding occurred in AD 212, 440, 603, 1029, 1418, and 1605 — roughly every 200 years.
“In that publication, the USGS said research on past atmospheric river events has found: “The geologic record shows 6 megastorms more severe than 1861-1862 in California in the last 1800 years, and there is no reason to believe similar events won’t occur again.”
Whatever you do, don’t mention the climate
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Jan 18, 2023
“Because in the world of one-sided climate science, hot weather is proof the theory is correct while unusually cold weather doesn’t mean anything and doesn’t even need to be discussed.”
No more WEF backroom deals for Sir David Attenborough?
By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, Jan 18, 2023
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda on Children
A Critical Examination of the Six Pillars of Climate Change Despair
By Doug R. Rogers, WUWT, Jan 19, 2023
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Children for Propaganda
Greta’s Arrest Was A Stunt
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That. Jan 19, 2023
Expanding the Orthodoxy
Big Brother Keeps Getting Bigger: Smart Meters In Germany Mandatory Beginning 2025!
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Jan 17, 2023
The Fed’s Jay Powell Is Trying to Have It Both Ways on Climate Change
By Rupert Darwall, Real Clear Energy, Jan 15, 2023
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2023/01/15/the_feds_jay_powell_is_trying_to_have_it_both_ways_on_climate_change_875366.html
Questioning European Green
Britishvolt’s collapse signals economic disaster for Britain’s Net Zero plans
Press Release, Net Zero Watch, Jan 17, 2023
Questioning Green Elsewhere
Green Champion Jacinda Ardern Resigns as New Zealand PM
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Jan 19, 2023
If only it were that easy
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Jan 18, 2023
“If you’re trying to give away money to get people to do something, going over budget means even greater uptake that you hoped for, which is good. But would they buy them without the free money? And how will they feel when they discover that, by his government’s own calculations, Canada’s EV mandate is going to cost citizens at least $99 billion while, apparently, secretly making them all richer.”
Green Jobs
[Battery start-up] British Volt Collapses Into Administration
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That. Jan 17, 2023
“So much for all those green jobs promised:”
“This whole saga is a reminder that you don’t create jobs through government diktat. Promises of hundreds of thousands of green jobs are simply a mirage.”
Parliamentary Inquiry – UK Green Jobs Narrative Unravelling
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Jan 18, 2023
Non-Green Jobs
Oil giant blames windfall tax as it cuts hundreds of jobs and investment
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That. Jan 19, 2023
This won’t hurt a bit
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Jan 18, 2023
“The latest fad here in Canada is the so-called ‘Just Transition’ in which Justin Trudeau’s government, determined to add to its already long list of failed policy schemes, intends to socially engineer the transition of the Alberta workforce out of high-paying skilled jobs in oil and gas production into low-paid and largely imaginary jobs in the ‘clean economy’. But don’t think they haven’t been thinking through the coming challenges.”
“They have learned nothing from the last half-decade in power, the last half-century on industrial policy, or the last century on central planning. Nothing.”
[SEPP Comment: We will impoverish all but ourselves justly?]
Funding Issues
Fed directs big banks to disclose how they are preparing for climate change risks
By Jeff Cox, CNBC, Jan 17, 2023
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/17/fed-directs-big-banks-to-disclose-how-they-are-preparing-for-climate-change-risks.html
Subsidies and Mandates Forever
The Gift of the Gabbard
By Andrew Montford, Net Zero Watch, Jan 17, 2023
“At 500MW, Greater Gabbard is a mid-sized offshore unit. Commissioned in 2012, it has been entirely uneconomic, making an underlying loss averaging £70 million each year. However, thanks to generous subsidies, of an average of £170 million per year, it has been able to hand back a handsome profit to its shareholders.”
Duke Energy’s Rolling Blackouts: Remember Jim Rogers’ CO2 Politics
By Robert Bradley Jr., Master Resource, Jan 17, 2023
“James Eugene “Jim” Rogers Jr. (1947–2018) was a notable political capitalist (rent seeker) of the late 20th/early 21st century electricity market. He did his work after leaving Enron Corp in 1988 to head a Midwest electric utility, Public Service of Indiana, later Cinergy (1994–2006), then Duke Energy (2006–13).”
[SEPP Comment: Duke Energy support of Virginia’s offshore wind turbines is another effort to profit from decades of subsidies regardless of costs to the consumer.]
Energy Issues – Non-US
Europe looks to challenge US, China with green industrial revolution
By Saul Elbein, The Hill, Jan 17, 2023
“Then a miracle occurs…”
Scotland’s “Energy Strategy and Just Transition plan” is a disaster in the making.
By Richard Lyon, The State of Britain, Jan 18, 2023 [H/t WUWT]
https://richardlyon.substack.com/p/then-a-miracle-occurs
World Energy Wake Up Call
By Ron Clutz, Science Matters, Jan 20, 2023
German electricity to be rationed as EVs and heat pumps threaten collapse of local power grids
By Staff, Business Insider Deutschland, Via New Zero Watch, Jan 19, 2023
Labour will end North Sea oil investment
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That. Jan 20, 2023
Energy Issues – Australia
Surprise! Australia’s Green Transition Energy Price Caps are Causing Supply Side Chaos
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Jan 16, 2023
The government waved a magic wand and turned the Gas industry into a stone
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Jan 18, 2023
Energy Issues — US
Some inconvenient truths about the energy transition
By Benard Weinstein, The Hill, Jan 9, 2023
Where’s the electricity?
By Ronald Stein, Cornwall Alliance, Jan 18, 2023
On Energy and Climate, the Solution Is Here
By Mike Sommers, President and CEO of the American Petroleum Institute (API), Via Real Clear Energy, Jan 15, 2023
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2023/01/15/on_energy_and_climate_the_solution_is_here_875361.html
The Costly Fantasy of Closing Coal Plants
By Frank Lasee, Real Clear Energy, Jan 12, 2023
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2023/01/12/the_costly_fantasy_of_closing_coal_plants_875331.html
Washington’s Control of Energy
The Biden Administration Finally Admits Its Mistake in Canceling the Keystone XL Pipeline
By Tom Harris, Real Clear Energy, Jan 19, 2023
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2023/01/19/the_biden_administration_finally_admits_its_mistake_in_canceling_the_keystone_xl_pipeline_876557.html
Oil and Natural Gas – the Future or the Past?
Global LNG Imports Hit A Record High In 2022
By Tsvetana Paraskova, Oil Price.com, Jan 12, 2023
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Global-LNG-Imports-Hit-A-Record-High-In-2022.html
Nuclear Energy and Fears
Like It Or Not, New Nuclear Reactors Are Coming To The U.S. Waterfront
By Craig Hooper, Forbes, Jan 17, 2023
https://www.forbes.com/sites/craighooper/2023/01/17/like-it-or-not-new-nuclear-reactors-are-coming-to-the-american-waterfront/?sh=7a720a384c79
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Vehicles
The real winners of Net Zero: China’s cheap EVs will swamp Europe’s car market
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That. Jan 19, 2023
There Likely Will Be Stranded Assets
By Donn Dears, Power For USA, Jan 17, 2023
https://ddears.com/2023/01/17/there-likely-will-be-stranded-assets/
California Dreaming
Back to California
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Jan 18, 2023
Environmental Industry
Greenpeace slams billionaires over private jet ‘hypocrisy’ at Davos summit
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That. Jan 18, 2023
Other News that May Be of Interest
Daisy-Chained Uncertainties
By Kip Hansen, WUWT, Jan 17, 2023
Two dead in fatal polar bear attack in Alaskan village of Wales on the Bering Strait
By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, Jan 18, 2023
“Polar bear attacks in winter are almost always associated with a bear that has not been able to resume feeding in the fall. More bears and restricted hunting mean more young bears (as well as old bears or sick ones) become food stressed because they can’t compete with big mature males for food. Mature bears often steal any seals that young bears are able to kill, making the youngsters desperate for food.”
BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE
Al Gore goes on ‘unhinged’ rant about ‘rain bombs,’ boiled oceans, other climate threats at Davos
Gore claimed climate change could ultimately end mankind’s ability for ‘self-governance’
By Gabriel Hays, Fox News, Jan 18, 2023
https://www.foxnews.com/media/al-gore-goes-unhinged-rant-about-rain-bombs-boiled-oceans-other-climate-threats-davos
Heavy snowfalls and ice storms: what the IPCC Atlas has to say
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Jan 18, 2023
[SEPP Comment: Completely blank on Jan 18, 2023, at 8:51 am EST.]
Climate conundrum: Study finds ants aren’t altering behavior in rising temperatures
Press Release, North Carolina State University, Via WUWT, Jan 17, 2023
Link: Can behaviour and physiology mitigate effects of warming on ectotherms? A test in urban ants
By Elsa Youngsteadt, et al, Journal of Animal Ecology, Jan 15, 2023
https://besjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1365-2656.13860
“We worked in eight urban and eight non-urban forest sites in North Carolina, USA; sites experienced a 1.1°C range of mean summer air temperatures.”
Greenland Melting At -65F
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Jan 19, 2023
ARTICLES
1. John Kerry Lays It All Out on Climate Change
Biden’s envoy calls for a World War II-like mobilization.
By The Editorial Board, WSJ, Jan 19, 2023
https://www.wsj.com/articles/john-kerry-lays-it-all-out-on-climate-davos-11674170143?mod=opinion_lead_pos3
“John Kerry is President Biden’s climate envoy to the world, and let it never be said that he lacks enthusiasm for the cause. This week in Davos, in front of the world’s elite climateers, Mr. Kerry gave a speech that everyone should read for its candid declaration of what he thinks it is going to take to save the planet from fossil fuels. To wit, an all-out militarization by government and private industry comparable to fighting the Nazis.
“The world needs to treat climate change like World War II when ‘in order to win the war that we had to organize ourselves to take control of the skies and take control of the seas and be able to smash the battlements that had been built along the coastline of France and Belgium and the Netherlands,’ Mr. Kerry said.
“This isn’t exactly Winston Churchill vowing to fight on the beaches, fields and streets, but you get the idea. Give the former Secretary of State credit for acknowledging the steep costs and other barriers to expunging fossil fuels that most climate catastrophists would rather not admit in public.
“‘Let’s face it, a whole bunch of companies in the world have chosen to say, ‘I’m going to be net zero by 2050,’’ he said. ‘And you and I, we know they don’t have a clue how they’re going to get there. And most of them are not on track to get there.’
“Maybe that’s because no one else knows either, because with current technology it isn’t possible. That’s certainly true of governments in the U.S. and Europe, which have committed to zeroing out their CO2 emissions by 2050 but haven’t implemented the policies or developed the technologies to get there. Not that it would make much difference if they did as long as China and India continue to build coal plants to fuel their economic growth.
“China emits two-thirds more CO2 than Europe and the U.S. combined. Even if all countries met their existing net-zero commitments, the world would exceed the warming of 1.5 degrees Celsius above temperatures in the 19th century. The world has already warmed 1.1 degrees.
“Mr. Kerry complained about ‘wads of bureaucracy’ such as permitting regulations that require ‘10 years to get a siting plan for a wind farm or solar’ plant. Has he mentioned this to Mr. Biden and the climate left? And how will turning over more of the economy to government central planners speed up any of this?
“His answer seems to be that what the world needs most to fight climate change is ‘money, money, money, money, money, money, money.’ By which he means other people’s money.”
After discussing forms of other people’s money the editorial concludes:
“All of this goes a long way to explaining why the climate elites of Davos keep meeting resistance from the common folk who would bear the economic burden. No one wants to enlist in, or pay for, a war that its generals have no clue how to win, much less the means to do it.”
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