My new podcast (see below for access), reviews the key changes happening in the tropics and what they mean for our future weather.
Our long (3-year) La Nina is over, with sea surface temperatures in the Nino3.4 region now almost completely normal (see below)
Pacific sea surface temperature has dropped from about 1 degree Celsius above normal in December to near normal today
The latest forecast from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) is that the probability of an El Niño event is more than 50% next fall.
As described in the podcast, the typical atmospheric configuration with El Nino is an area of low pressure over the Gulf of Mexico, warmer than normal conditions in the Northwest and wetter than normal conditions in southern and central California (see side below). But as demonstrated this year, long-term projections have significant uncertainties, with El Nino/La Nina-based guidance more like atmospheric dice weighing.
To listen to my podcast, use the link below or access it through your favorite podcast service.
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