By J. Keeler Johnson (“Keelerman”) Twitter: @J_Keelerman
Five weeks on from the Kentucky Derby (G1), the prep action for the race is heating up a lot. The critical trio of 100-40-20-10 qualifying for the top four finishers will take place Saturday at Oaklawn Park, Gulfstream Park and Turfway Park.
Let’s explore the entries and plan our picks:
Arkansas Derby (G1) at Oaklawn Park
How talented is a filthy #6 Secret Vow (5-2), who are the morning favorites to win the 1/8 Arkansas Derby? There’s no way to know yet, because no one can beat her in the three games that start at Oaklawn this winter.
I loved Secret Oath’s performance in Honeybee S. (G3) on February 26. After slowing down in fifth place, Secret Oath headed inside and found itself boxed in behind the leaders. . She had to wait in the traffic and even settle while trying to find her way through, but when a loophole appeared along the inside, Secret Oath shot through and dashed off to win in 7 and a half seconds. .
Secret Oath’s performance is visually impressive, but it’s also very fast. She finished the 1/16 mile race in 1:44.74, almost a second faster than # 5 Un Ojo (6-1) must win Rebel S. (G2) late afternoon. And the fact that Secret Oath had to wait before unleashing her victory suggests she could have run even faster with an unhindered journey.
I’m excited to see what Secret Oath can achieve in the Arkansas Derby. Brisnet Speed’s ratings rank Secret Oath as the fastest horse in the field, so don’t be surprised if she rallies to win.
Florida Derby (G1) at Gulfstream Park
There are plenty of possible contenders to choose from in the 1/8 mile Florida Derby, and narrowing them down is tough. #3 Simplify (3-1) was as impressive as it could have been at the Fountain of Youth S. (G2) at Gulfstream last month, launching a sweeping outside rally to the win in a span of 3 and a half. But # 7 White Abarrio (3-1) defeated Simplification 4 and a half ago at Holy Bull S. (G3) two months ago, albeit on a day where Simplification had to go through a rough patch. How about the recent Tampa Bay Derby (G2) hero #2 The Classic Way (7-2), who finished 2 3/4 of the length ahead of White Abarrio when he finished second in the Kentucky Jockey Club S. (G2) at Churchill Downs last fall?
You can choose any of the proven graded bet winners and feel confident in your chances. But I’ll take a conceded risk outside the box and win #6 Charge it (7-2) instead.
I loved the Charge It’s first win of a mile at Gulfstream on Feb. 12. Tapit’s son strode quickly from the outpost, clearing the field by scores: 24.24,: 47.47 and 1:11.45. Considering the run-up distance for the one-mile race at Gulfstream is so short, the pace is said to be a bit faster than at first glance.
In any case, Charge It ran all the way down to people’s houses. Under the helm of brilliant jockey Luis Saez, Charge It made it to the penultimate finish with: 11.80 and finally lasted: 12.30 to win 8 1/2 lengths, completing the race in a flash of 1:35.55.
From a pedigree perspective, Charge It was bred to be a star. His daughter is I’ll Take Charge, the daughter of three-time First Division champion Take Charge Lady and half-sister with notable names like Florida Derby winner Take Charge Indy , three-year-old male champion Will Take Charge, Beholder Winner Mile S. (G1) As Time Goes By, and Graceful. The second just happened to be smashing Take Charge champion Brandi, two-year-old, and three-time Class 1 champion Omaha Beach.
Suffice it to say, the Charge It was bred to race excellently around two turns, so he qualifies to run even better while stretching over 1 1/8 mile in the Florida Derby. Reality coach Todd Pletcher has won five of the most recent eight editions of the Florida Derby adding to the appeal.
Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) at Turfway Park
I can’t argue with anyone who wants to support # 7 Tiz the Bomb (2-1) on this 1/8 mile Tapeta test. Don’t like what? Tiz the Bomb had a strong underage campaign, winning two bets before finishing second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (G1), and he showed a fondness for Turfway when fought the ancient victory at the John Battaglia Memorial S. a month ago.
The only problem is, Jeff Ruby has attracted a large and competitive playing field, and Tiz the Bomb’s early morning 2-1 odds aren’t particularly appealing. He’s certainly the horse to beat, but I find it appealing to play one of the many other talented runners who offer a higher price tag.
Finally, I would love to support # 5 Port Tawny (5-1). Led by two-time Eclipse Award-winning coach Brad Cox, Tawny Port kicked off his career with a couple of lengthy wins at Turfway. After smashing a mile-long special maiden scale with 6 and a half lengths, Tawny Port earned a $50,000 grant option claimant the same neck distance.
Tawny Port managed to successfully turn his Tapeta into dirt during the Risen Star S. (G2) at Fair Grounds on February 19, and he didn’t run bad by any means, passing a few. horse late to finish fifth. The only athletes to beat Tawny Port were followed by the Louisiana Derby (G2) 1-3, Epicenter and Pioneer of Medina, Kentucky Jockey Club S. (G2) Smile Happy winner, and runner-up Zandon Remsen S (G2).
Competitive caliber is arguably easier at Jeff Ruby, and a return to Turfway should trigger a strong performance from Port Tawny. With a score of 6-1, I’m willing to bet he can make it past Tiz the Bomb to a homestead.
Now it’s your turn! Who’s your favorite in this week’s Kentucky Derby prep?
*****
Want to test your beating skills against other Unlock Winners readers? Check Unlock the Winner contest page—There is a new challenge every week! (Please note: older entries can be found here.)
J. Keeler Johnson (also known as “Keelerman”) is a writer, cinematographer, voice actor, amputee, and horse racing enthusiast. A huge fan of racing history, he considers Dr Fager the greatest racehorse ever made in America, but considers Zenyatta his all-time favorite.
