China will continue to strive to become more self-sufficient, but don’t expect the President Xi Jinping Analysts said to attack Taiwan by force.
Their comments followed Mr. Xi’s speech at the opening of the Chinese communist party’s national congress on Sunday.
There were some minor surprises in Xi’s nearly two-hour speech, where he outlined his vision for the country for the next five years, analysts said. Mr. Xi is expected to cement his leadership role for an unprecedented third term during the week-long meeting.
However, there was one key highlight of Xi’s speech, said Dylan Loh, a professor of foreign policy and China expert at Singapore’s Nanyang Technological University. Unlike previous speeches, Mr. Xi has made it clear that China must brace itself against growing external challenges, Mr. Loh said.
In addition, the Chinese leader’s call for the party to “build a modern socialist power by 2049” shows “his determination to resist external pressures and direct China follows the party’s own path,” said political risk consultancy, Eurasia Group.
Self-reliance
Eswar Prasad, a professor of economics and international trade at Cornell University, told CNBC on “Squawk Box Asia” on Monday that the importance of self-reliance was reinforced after Mr. The so-called “dual circulation” policy.
The dual traffic strategy first emerged in 2020 when a meeting of China’s Politburo called for a greater focus on the domestic market, or “internal circulation,” to support China’s growth. The strategy involves placing less reliance on export- or trade-related growth without completely abandoning it.
In a nearly two-hour speech, Chinese President Xi Jinping outlined his vision for the country for the next five years. The Chinese leader is expected to cement his leadership role for an unprecedented third term during the week-long meeting.
Lintao Zhang | Getty Images News
“Certainly, the Chinese leaders have taken very careful note of what happened in the Ukraine war and what kind of drag the West can put on Russia and, of course, there is a sense of So is the great power competition between the US and China,” Prasad said.
“So this concept of self-reliance, especially in the context of technology … tries to become less dependent on the rest of the world, for export markets or for technology or imports. password in any way. That will obviously be a mainstay.”
Xi Jinping has made his intentions very clear: he wants a controllable, manageable private sector.
Eswar Prasad
Professor of Economics & International Trade, Cornell University
To that end, Prasad said Beijing’s control over China’s private sector will increase rather than head towards the other end of the spectrum, i.e. allowing for more market-oriented reforms.
He said Xi’s speech, in line with Beijing’s comments in recent months, showed that the government views the state-driven economy more as a path to stability.
“Xi Jinping has made his intentions very clear: he wants a controllable, manageable private sector.”
That strategy is working well due to Beijing’s past interference in Chinese education and property sectors.
As a result, there is likely to be a reshuffle in Xi’s cabinet by the end of this week’s meeting, including possible changes at the People’s Bank of China, in addition to a slated to replace Premier Li Keqiang Prasad said he will retire in March.
But it doesn’t matter who the new prime minister or cabinet member is because Mr. Xi has made it clear that he will be pull all the ropes, according to Prasad.
China-Taiwan tensions
Other observers such as Bilahari Kausikan, former permanent secretary of Singapore’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, said Mr. Xi did not want to use force, although he did say in his speech that Mr. China “will never promise to renounce the use of force.”
China considers Taiwan autonomous as part of its territory and tensions between the two have flared recently when US House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited the island in August despite warnings from Beijing.
“I really don’t think the Chinese are very eager to start something to unify Taiwan by force … because if you start you have to win,” Kausikan said.
“I don’t think any Chinese leader can survive the attempt to defeat Taiwan when Putin defeats Ukraine. And I don’t believe they can.”
Lyle J. Morris, senior fellow on foreign policy and national security at the Center for China Analysis of the Asian Institute of Social Policy, agrees.
“Xi did not signal to the international community that he wanted to invade Taiwan or that he was running out of patience for political reconciliation,” he said, pointing out that peaceful reunification is still his phrase. Practice using.
“He mentioned external forces very early in his speech, so it’s clear that the American element is central to his mind.
Sticking to China’s zero-Covid policy
Asked if he was surprised that Mr. Xi stood firm on China’s zero-Covid policies to the desperation of businesses hoping the country would reopen, Bilahari said that Mr. motivated by political and partisan logic, which are secondary to economic logic.
Bilahari told CNBC: “If it suddenly gave up it would have to admit that it was a mistake…
Loh from Singapore’s NTU says compliance with zero-Covid policies has other realities. China’s medical infrastructure needs to be reformed before it can cope with the higher number of infections.
“The easiest, fastest and surest method to prevent Covid deaths from getting out of control is the zero-Covid policy. I would expect some implementation-level tweaks but probably nothing. exceeded,” he said.
