By Edward Egros
FOX Sports MLB Betting Analyst
After what seemed like a slow start by Team USABy their standards – including a six-game defeat to Mexico – the Americans were in tears, looking as dominant as ever in the past few games. Now they only have one win to repeat like World Classic Baseball champion.
Standing on their path is Japan, love betting. It was a team with a highly regarded pitching staff and a group of players who were gritty enough to overcome a late-half shortfall in their semi-final to get this far.
This is the one a lot of us want to watch, and on Tuesday night we’ll be watching it at midnight. 7pm ET on FS1 and the FOX Sports App. Let’s dive into the classic match betting, with odds provided by Bet FOX.
[RELATED: Japan stuns Mexico with walk-off win]
Shohei Ohtani & Japan vs Team USA World Baseball Classic preview
Ben Verlander and Alex Curry bring you a preview of the Classic Baseball World Championship match between Japan and the United States.
USA vs Japan at LoanDepot Park, Miami, 7 p.m. ET Tuesday, FS1 and FOX Sports app
Running track: United States -1 (The US has priority to win by 1 or more runs, otherwise Japan will suffer)
Cash flow: USA -125 favorites to win (bet 10$ to win total 18$); Japan +100 weaker team to win (bet $10 to win a total of $20)
Total score over/under: 10 runs scored by both teams combined
Arizona Diamondbacks vase Merrill Kelly will start for Team USA. He seems like a strange relative as he may not be recognized as a Adam Wainwright or Lance Lynn.
However, his extensive pitching arsenal can keep Japan’s players guessing. Kelly throws his fast four-way ball most often, giving it some deceiving movement and motion, but he will go change, cut and sink more than 15% of the time each time. Last season, Kelly’s allowable hit rate ranked in the 62nd percentile among all MLB pitchers, a good indication that any impact made will not result in junior runners.
Japan will counterattack Yu Darvish, who competed in his country’s 2009 WBC Championship. More than a decade later, the Padres San Diego The hurdler still has one of the more deceptive fast balls in the MLB. Pair it with his cutter and Darvish can combine velocity with motion.
Darvish had inconsistent results with his cutter last season, with an expected batting average of 0.298, but his four-seam athlete has an xBA of 0.201. Although his allowable hit rate is slightly less than Kelly’s at the 58th percentile, not a single starting pitcher has a significant advantage.
However, one area with a distinct advantage is the bullpen.
After the Japanese victory, Shohei Ohtani speak Ken Rosenthal He’s ready to go on the pitch like a reliever. Again, Ohtani is Angel Los Angeles Opening day starts, so if he takes the mound, it will be limited.
Still, his 33.2% hit rate compared to last season would be needed against a dangerous American formation. Granted, the United States didn’t have to use too much pain medication in the semi-final against Cuba (Miles Mikolas eat all four rounds), but Japanese Samurai always have a pitching advantage in this tournament.
As for hitting the ball, you already know baseball is an average game. Munetaka Murakami was Japan’s home run king, but the tournament was largely quiet until bringing home the game-winning RBI on Monday night. But Murakami is one of the slows in Japan can handle both heaters and out-of-speed deliveries. Japan leads the WBC in percentage basis (.471) for a reason.
Team America also had a steep slide, especially at the end of the order. Nine-hole hitter Trea Turner clutched like anyone else in this tournament, but the one who hit eight holes Tim Anderson 4th in the MLB last season in expected hit average (0.302) and seven-hole hitters Pete Alonso hit 40 home by 2022. You don’t need to mention Mike the salmon or Mookie bet to make a convincing case that Team USA has the best offense in the field.
Finally, the invisible. Either way, the home field advantage in baseball tends to be overestimated, and when excitement levels in other countries are just as high, there doesn’t seem to be a need for adjustment there either.
The hype about the championship doesn’t always match the reality, but that’s what I’m looking forward to. Personally I think Japan will be favored, but even if you think it’s a close match, the value is betting on Team Japan, and that’s my bet. i’m taking Japanese Samurai to win a third WBC title.
For a smaller bet, the Japanese cowshed can do enough to keep this game a pitcher’s duel, so under 9.5 runs is the way of the game. I.
PICK: Japan (-1 run at FOX Bets) to win 1 run or more
Edward Egros is a sports analyst/writer, sports betting analyst, data scientist, and adjunct professor of statistics at Pepperdine University. These passions led him to become a cold beer enthusiast. Edward has previously worked in local television, particularly at Fox affiliates in Dallas including Rangers, Cowboys and high school football. Follow him tstupid @EdWithSports.
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