What will energy production and consumption in the United States look like in 2050? There are two very different answers to that question.
On Side One are those who assert that we are facing a “climate crisis” that can only be solved by a rapid crackdown on fossil fuel production and use. As a result, some combination of government coercion, investor pressure, and voluntary institutional action will soon drive coal, oil, and natural gas out of energy markets, to be replaced by “renewable energy” has no carbon. And so by 2050, we will have reached an impossibly “zero” carbon emissions.
The people at Side Two say that Side One’s vision is a complete fantasy. Simple arithmetic shows that without huge energy storage it is not possible to build wind and solar generators that can make much of a difference in the use of fossil fuels to produce electricity; and adequate energy storage devices to fill the void don’t even exist as a technical problem, let alone remotely affordable. The result: regardless of what the giants say, fossil fuel production and use by 2050 will be at or above current levels.
Which side do you think is right?
At this point, all of the Great and the Good seem to have planted their flags on the One side. President Biden has no doubts about his position. Via Press release April 22, 2021Biden has committed the United States to a “net zero” economy by 2050:
On Day One, President Biden delivered on his promise to rejoin the Paris Agreement and set out a roadmap for the United States to address the climate crisis at home and abroad, reaching net zero emissions across the economy. by the end of 2050.
And by various Executive Orders, Biden has asked the entire federal administration to commit to a fossil fuel containment project, from stopping drilling to blocking pipelines to decommissioning plants. electric machine.
In the investment world, all the biggest banks and money managers are on board. This is a link to the website “The Road to Net Zero” of BlackRock, the nation’s largest mutual fund manager. Quote from Pithy:
We believe that the transition to a world that is not pure is the shared responsibility of all citizens, corporations and governments. . . . In January 2021, we pledged to support our goal of net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 or earlier – and announced several steps to help our customers navigate the transition.
And it goes without saying that the academic world joined Side One with complete unanimity. After all, these are the “smartest” people; and the “smartest” know that the “climate crisis” can only be solved by stopping fossil fuels. This is a representative statement by Yale University President Peter Salovey, June 24, 2021:
To avoid the most severe consequences of climate change, experts recommend immediate action to achieve net carbon neutrality worldwide over the next three decades. Yale will become a net zero carbon campus in less than half that time. On the path to net zero emissions by 2050, we expect to reduce real emissions by at least 50% below 2005 levels by 2035.
So surely then, with this kind of high-level consensus, backed by the full force of the federal government, fossil fuels will be completely gone by 2050.
Perhaps before we get too confident in that conclusion, we should check with the Energy Information Administration. The EIA is a division of the federal Department of Energy that provides data and statistics on U.S. energy production and consumption, both historical and projected. Once a year, usually in March, they release what they call their Annual Energy Outlook, or AEO. AEO2022 just launched on March 3rd. opening page of AEO2022 offers loads of links that can keep you busy for hours if you’re so inclined.
The amazing thing about this AEO is that it’s like no one told them that fossil fuels were about to go extinct. They basically treat the whole “net zero by 2050” noise as a lot of ambient noise. For example, what is the EIA’s view of U.S. natural gas consumption between now and 2050? It is in This chart:
Net no one? Instead, it looks like slow but steady growth continues throughout the forecast period.
How about US crude oil production? Surely that will plummet to zero by 2050. No according to EIA:
Essentially, they predict that US crude oil production will increase dramatically over the next few years, then level off and stay there until 2050.
To be fair, the two graphs above represent what they call the “reference case”. They have other charts showing high production/consumption cases and also low production/consumption cases. However, high cases are due to high prices, and low cases are due to low prices. There is no discernible impact in the EIA projections due to repression by regulators, let alone from sober investors or the flashy claims of academia.
One of my favorite charts is this includes expected “light vehicle” salesaka car.
And you think buying anything but an all-electric car will be illegal by 2030? EIA forecasts that even by 2050, all-electric vehicles will not capture 10% of the market, while all-gasoline vehicles will still account for about 75% of the market.
The many other links on the AEO2022 introduction page provide a fascinating read that essentially contradicts everything about our energy future coming out of the White House. for example “US Energy-Related CO2 Emissions Emissions in the US to decrease in the near term, then increase.” In other words, claims of “real zero” emissions by 2050 are a lot of hot air. Or yes “Petroleum and natural gas are the most used fuels in the United States through 2050.”
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