The Week That Was: 2022-11-05 (November 5, 2022)
Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org)
The Science and Environmental Policy Project
Quote of the Week: “[W]e compare the result of [a theory’s] computation to nature…[and] compare it directly with observations, to see if it works. If it disagrees with experiment, it is wrong. In that simple statement is the key to science. — Richard Feynman, The Character of Physical Law, 1965 [H/t Happer & Lindzen]
Number of the Week: $1.3 Trillion a Year
THIS WEEK:
By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)
Scope: The following issues will be discussed following the concept that in physical science, physical evidence separates science fact from science fiction.
Carbon dioxide (CO2) is an extraordinary gas on this planet. Without it, all green life would cease. All complex life, which is dependent on green life, would cease. The EPA’s declaration that “the Administrator finds that greenhouse gases in the atmosphere may reasonably be anticipated both to endanger public health and to endanger public welfare” is extraordinary. It requires extraordinary physical evidence. The EPA has none. Instead, it relies on the opinions of government functionaries who are generally ignorant of how science works.
In submitting an Amicus Curiae (“friend of the court.”) brief (written argument), Professors William Happer and Richard Lindzen, and the CO2 Coalition believe that “the ‘science’ relied upon by the EPA in its Endangerment Findings is seriously flawed and not truly scientific.”
Last week, TWTW discussed a lecture by Professor Wyss Yim of Hong Kong University stating that there are two distinctively different events classified as El Niños, one incorrectly. Traditional El Niños occur when normal conditions in the Pacific change. By contrast, a Warm Pool El Niño occurs when a pool of warm water appears in the oceans, be it Pacific, Atlantic, or other. These apparently random events are the result of submarine volcanoes and may have a significant impact on global weather. Thanks to modern satellite instrumentation, these events can be tracked. This week AAAS Science published a paper stating that “January 2022 eruption of Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai volcano reached the mesosphere”, one of the submarine volcanoes discussed by Professor Yim.
Craig Idso has an essay on the dangers of reducing CO2 emissions, something which government entities and their supporters do not consider when calculating the supposed harmful effects of CO2 emissions.
The 27th annual conference to “save the planet” from lifegiving CO2 will start next week (COP 27). There is a typical outpouring of far-fetched studies on far-fetched harms.
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Government Endangerment Finding: Professors Happer and Lindzen and the CO2 Coalition assert:
“that the denial to reconsider the Endangerment Findings is without a valid scientific basis, arbitrary, and capricious. For several decades, Amici have studied the science and evidence purportedly underpinning the Endangerment Findings and are experts in the fields of physics and atmospheric sciences from which the EPA’s evidence is drawn.” (p 1)
Selected quotes applying to the scientific method are cited below. The page numbers apply to the page in the actual document, not the recorded page. For example, p 1 becomes page 11 of 47 in the recorded document. The citations are not given below.
“INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY OF ARGUMENT
The CO2 Coalition is a non-profit corporation comprised of more than 100 scientists, engineers, and energy experts, publishing on various aspects of climate change and related fields.
Professors Happer and Lindzen are career physicists who, for decades, have specialized in applying the scientific method to radiation physics and dynamic heat transfer.
Scientific knowledge is determined by the scientific method, through which theoretical predictions are validated or rejected by observations. If the theoretical predictions do not work, the theory is rejected. That’s real science. [Boldface added]
Scientific knowledge is not determined by government-controlled opinions, consensus, peer review, or theoretical models that do not work. Those are false science. This brief applies the scientific method to the Endangerment Findings and its supporting Technical Support Document and demonstrates both are scientifically corrupted and thus must be rescinded for the following reasons.
• IPCC Government-Controlled Opinions. The Endangerment Findings and the Technical Support Document extensively rely on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (“IPCC”) assessments as a “primary scientific and technical basis” for the Findings. The IPCC is government controlled and thus issues only government opinions, not real science as the picture below—of government representatives determining content at IPCC’s Summary for Policymakers’ writing meeting—shows.[Picture not shown here}
This is not how scientific knowledge is determined. Governments do not determine scientific knowledge; the scientific method does. [Boldface added]
The dangers of governmentally determined science were tragically demonstrated about a century ago when Stalin appointed Trofim Lysenko as the czar of Russian agricultural science in the former Soviet Union. Lysenko suppressed the scientific method and dictated instead that his agricultural theories be used. Lysenko’s government-dictated theories led to famine and millions of deaths through starvation and disease. It is a poignant reminder that the IPCC’s government-dictated ‘science’ must not be used in the Endangerment Findings and Technical Support Document.
• IPCC Theoretical Models Don’t Work. Both the Endangerment Findings and the Technical Support Document should be withdrawn because they fundamentally rely on IPCC theoretical models that predict catastrophic warming unless fossil fuel CO2 is eliminated. The IPCC climate models then and most recently have been proven conclusively by observations to fail by over-predicting warming. Therefore, they must be rejected and not used. See, infra, § IV.
• Peer Review and Consensus. Both the Endangerment Findings and Technical Support Document use peer review and consensus extensively, which, as noted, does not determine real science.
• Censorship of the Contradicting Real Science. By using “the scientific assessments of the IPCC, USGCRP, and the NRC” as “best reference” for science, 74 Fed. Reg. 66,511, the EPA inadvertently admits it censored the overwhelming evidence from real science that demonstrates there is no danger that fossil fuel CO2 will cause catastrophic global warming. See, e.g., infra, § V.
• The Endangerment Findings and Technical Support Document are Driving Disastrous Consequences. Contrary to common reporting, CO2 is essential to life by producing food through photosynthesis. Increasing CO2 in the atmosphere by burning fossil fuels will produce more food for people worldwide. Elimination of fossil fuels in response to the Endangerment Findings will be doubly disastrous by reducing the amount of food available to people worldwide and eliminating the major source of low-cost energy.
Thus, real science requires that all the false science be removed from the Endangerment Findings and Technical Support Document. This requires deleting all the government-dictated IPCC material, all IPCC theoretical climate models and scenarios, and all citations to consensus. As a result, the Endangerment Findings and Technical Support Document will be without adequate required real scientific support.
Accordingly, it is Amici’s scientific opinion that the Endangerment Findings and Technical Support Document are based, in part, on government dictated material and must be withdrawn before they cause more disastrous reduction in the food supply worldwide and the end of affordable and reliable fossil fuel energy for people worldwide, future generations, and the United States.” (pp 7 to 11)
TWTW supports the view of Professors Happer and Lindzen that the Endangerment Finding endangers the integrity of American physical science itself, replacing physical evidence with government-controlled groupthink. The brief continues:
“ARGUMENT I. THE ENDANGERMENT FINDINGS AND TECHNICAL SUPPORT DOCUMENT ARE NOT BASED ON THE SCIENTIFIC METHOD
According to the Endangerment Findings, ‘the Administrator finds that greenhouse gases in the atmosphere may reasonably be anticipated both to endanger public health and to endanger public welfare.’ 74 Fed. Reg. 66,497.
Government-Controlled Opinions. The Administrator emphasized that three government organizations were the ‘primary scientific basis for the Findings:
The major assessments by the U.S. Global Climate Research Program (USGCRP), the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and the National Research Council (NRC) serve as the primary scientific basis supporting the Administrator’s endangerment finding.
The Technical Support Document…summarizes scientific findings from the major assessments of the USGCRP, the IPCC, and the NRC accompanies these Findings.
‘It is EPA’s view that the scientific assessments of the IPCC, USGRCP, and the NRC represent the best reference materials for determining the general state of knowledge on the scientific and 4 74 Fed. Reg. 66,497’ (footnote omitted). 5 Id. at 66,510. technical issues before the agency in making an endangerment decision.
Unintentionally, the Administrator made clear she chose to use government-determined opinions as ‘science,’ rather than scientific knowledge determined by the scientific method: [Boldface added]
‘The USGCRP, IPCC, and NRC assessments have been reviewed and formally accepted by, commissioned by, or in some cases authored by U.S. government agencies and individual government scientists. These reports already reflect significant input from EPA’s scientists and the scientists of many other government agencies.’
Id. at 66,511 (emphasis added).
Of the three, IPCC opinions are the dominant source of purported ‘science’ underlying the Endangerment Findings and Technical Support Document, and indeed all ‘Net Zero’ policies to eliminate fossil fuel CO2 emissions in the U.S. and worldwide.
However, contrary to the vigorous assertions by the IPCC that it provides the best climate science in the world, the IPCC is government-controlled and, therefore, the IPCC’s Summaries for Policymakers and assessment reports are government dictated opinions with little scientific value, all of which is elaborated on in section III. 6 Id. at 66,511 [Boldface added]
Theoretical Models Don’t Work. As noted, the Endangerment Findings and Technical Support Document fundamentally rely on IPCC theoretical models that predict catastrophic global warming unless fossil fuel CO2 is eliminated. The IPCC climate models used in support of the Endangerment Findings shown below are the most dominant models used to support the argument that fossil fuel CO2 must be eliminated and reduced to ‘Net Zero’ to avoid catastrophic global warming. Specifically, the Endangerment Findings assert: ‘According to climate model simulations summarized by the IPCC…[b]y the end of the century, projected average global warming… [will range] from 1.8 to 4.0 °C (3.2 to 7.2 °F).’ 74 Fed. Reg. 66,519. The Technical Support Document similarly relies on IPCC theoretical climate model predictions to assert that by the end of the century there will be ‘a warming range of 3.2°F to 7.2°F.’” (pp 11 to 13)
The brief then demonstrates the wild model results that are meaningless because the models are not tested against physical evidence. The brief has a section on “Real Science” which is determined by validating theoretical predictions with observations: “False Science” is determined by consensus, peer review, government opinion, fabricated data or models that don’t work. Another section is titled “The IPCC is government-controlled and thus only issues government opinions, not real science.”
The fourth section is titled “The IPCC theoretical models do not work and thus under basic scientific method must not be used.” Another section is titled “Censored Real science proves fossil fuel CO2 will not cause catastrophic global warming.” This section includes graphs of 600 million years of atmospheric CO2 and temperature data and a part titled Atmospheric CO2 is now “heavily saturated,” which in physics means more CO2 will have little warming effect.
The section before the brief conclusion is titled “The Endangerment Findings and Technical Support Document support of ‘Net Zero’ fossil fuel CO2 policies will disastrously reduce food worldwide and eliminate fossil fuels, the major source of low-cost energy for the US and people worldwide.”
This brief is the most effective, well-articulated, practical summation of the false science that went into the disastrous Endangerment Finding that TWTW has seen. The consequences of this ideological decision include the perversion of American physical science. All concerned readers and all citizens are encouraged to read it. See link under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
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Unprecedented Observation: On January 15, 2022, the submarine volcano with some islands, Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai, erupted forcefully. Its estimated Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) is six, similar to the land-based Mount Pinatubo in 1991. Thanks to modern satellite instrumentation the volcanic plume was measured to reach an altitude of 57 km (35 miles). It sent atmospheric shock waves, sonic booms, and tsunami waves around the world. NASA Goddard posted:
“Analyzing data from NASA’s Ionospheric Connection Explorer, or ICON, mission and ESA’s (the European Space Agency) Swarm satellites, scientists found that in the hours after the eruption, hurricane-speed winds and unusual electric currents formed in the ionosphere – Earth’s electrified upper atmospheric layer at the edge of space.”
NASA JPL posted:
“The underwater eruption in the South Pacific Ocean also blasted an enormous plume of water vapor into Earth’s stratosphere – enough to fill more than 58,000 Olympic-size swimming pools. The sheer amount of water vapor could be enough to temporarily affect Earth’s global average temperature.”
The article linked below stated:
“‘We’ve never seen anything like it,’ said Luis Millán, an atmospheric scientist at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Southern California. He led a new study examining the amount of water vapor that the Tonga volcano injected into the stratosphere, the layer of the atmosphere between about 8 and 33 miles (12 and 53 kilometers) above Earth’s surface.
“In the study, published in Geophysical Research Letters, Millán and his colleagues estimate that the Tonga eruption sent around 146 teragrams (1 teragram equals a trillion grams) of water vapor into Earth’s stratosphere – equal to 10% of the water already present in that atmospheric layer. That’s nearly four times the amount of water vapor that scientists estimate the 1991 Mount Pinatubo eruption in the Philippines lofted into the stratosphere.” [A teragram is about 1.1 US tons].
According to the plain language summary of the article:
“Unlike previous strong eruptions, this event may not cool the surface, but rather it could potentially warm the surface due to the excess water vapor.”
Some years ago, Joe D’Aleo and Joe Bastardi (now with WeatherBell Analytics) separately identified warm spots in the oceans, called warm pool La Niños by Professor Yim. They are created by underseas (submarine) volcanoes. Last week on his Saturday Summary, Bastardi spent 20 minutes presenting an array of charts supporting his claims that these eruptions are causing a warming of the atmosphere particularly over the Arctic. They occur before the peaks shown in atmospheric temperature trends shown over the past ten years. (Before then, detailed ocean temperature measurements did not exist.) The water vapor from the January volcanic eruption may cause another peak in atmospheric temperature trends in late 2022 and 2023.
See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy, Measurement Issues – Atmosphere, https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/2022/sun/nasa-mission-finds-tonga-volcanic-eruption-effects-reached-space and https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/tonga-eruption-blasted-unprecedented-amount-of-water-into-stratosphere
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Urban Heat Island Effect: The surface-air temperature data used by the IPCC and its followers has a notorious defect in that it is not adjusted for urbanization that is occurring worldwide. The Urban Heat Island effect reflects the warming caused by replacing greenery with pavement and using drainage to eliminate wet areas. Roy Spencer presents a beginning of what is needed to adjust the surface data. In the overview he states:
“A relatively new global dataset of urbanization changes over the 40-year period 1975-2014 based upon Landsat data is used to determine the average effect urbanization has had on surface temperatures. A method is presented to compute the magnitude of the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect on temperatures using the example of summertime 09 UTC (early morning) Integrated Surface Database (ISD) hourly data (mostly from airports) over the period 1973-2022 by comparing urbanization differences to temperature differences from closely-spaced weather stations. The results for the eastern U.S. lead to a 50-year warming trend 50% less than that from the official NOAA homogenized surface temperature dataset. It is likely that the daytime reductions in temperature trends will be less dramatic.” [Boldface added]
Spencer describes his effort and concludes, in part:
“The urbanization effect on surface temperature trends for August at 09 UTC (near the time of daily minimum temperature) results in a 50% reduction in those trends over the last 50 years. From some preliminary looks I have had at the data from other months and times of day I’d say this will likely be the upper limit of de-urbanization adjustments. So, it is likely that trends in daytime temperature near the time of the daily maximum will not be reduced nearly as much as 50%.
“But given the fact that all CMIP6 climate models produce U.S. summer temperature trends greater than the NOAA observations means the discrepancy between climate models and observations is even larger than currently suspected by many of us. John Christy and I believe it is time for a new surface temperature dataset, and the methodology outlined above looks like a viable approach to that end.” [Boldface added]
Indeed, it is past time to remove this travesty of physical science. See link under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
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Benefits of CO2: Over the years, Craig Idso of CO2 Science has written about the benefits of CO2 fertilization of plants. Writing for Master Resource, he addresses a different issue – the harm that will occur by reducing CO2. For this he cites an experiment of plant bulbs that were a major source of carbohydrates for humans 75 thousand to 125 thousand years ago. Plants grown under reduced CO2, including the IPCC’s claim of pre-industrial CO2 of a concentration of 280 parts per million (ppm), did poorly compared with a concentration of 390 ppm. Today’s concentration is about 420 ppm. So, the programs to reduce atmospheric CO2 may truly endanger human health and welfare. See link under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
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Saving the Planet: The drumbeat to save the planet is intensifying and all the IPCC followers are lining up. The Lancet produced possibly the worst of health studies. It emphasized the deaths due to heat. However, it ignored that most of the populated world experiences a winter, and more people die of exposure to cold than heat. But in saving the world, there is apparently no reason to understand the world. See link under Defending the Orthodoxy and Article # 1
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Number of the Week: $1.3 Trillion a Year. Paul Homewood shows that according to the Wall Street Journal, China, India, and other developing nations going to COP 27, seek $1.3 Trillion a year for the supposed damage that carbon dioxide emissions have caused and to build alternative energy projects. Since the UN IPCC reports of harmful CO2 emissions are a counterfeit physical science, will the UN pay them in in counterfeit money? See link under Funding Issues.
Challenging the Orthodoxy — NIPCC
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science
Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2013
Summary: https://www.heartland.org/_template-assets/documents/CCR/CCR-II/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Biological Impacts
Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2014
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/climate-change-reconsidered-ii-biological-impacts/
Summary: https://www.heartland.org/media-library/pdfs/CCR-IIb/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels
By Multiple Authors, Bezdek, Idso, Legates, and Singer eds., Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change, April 2019
http://store.heartland.org/shop/ccr-ii-fossil-fuels/
Download with no charge:
Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming
The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus
By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), Nov 23, 2015
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/
Download with no charge:
https://www.heartland.org/policy-documents/why-scientists-disagree-about-global-warming
Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate
S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008
http://www.sepp.org/publications/nipcc_final.pdf
Global Sea-Level Rise: An Evaluation of the Data
By Craig D. Idso, David Legates, and S. Fred Singer, Heartland Policy Brief, May 20, 2019
Challenging the Orthodoxy
Brief of Amici Curiae Dr. William Happer, Dr Richard Lindzen, and the CO2 Coalition in Support of Petitioners and Reversal
USCA Case #22-1139, Filed Oct 21, 2022
Scientists identify the highest-ever recorded volcanic plume
By Staff Writers, Oxford UK (SPX), Nov 04, 2022
https://www.terradaily.com/reports/Scientists_identify_the_highest_ever_recorded_volcanic_plume_999.html
Link to paper: The January 2022 eruption of Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai volcano reached the mesosphere
By Simon Proud, et al, AAAS Science, Nov 3, 2022
https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abo4076
The Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai Hydration of the Stratosphere
By L Millan, et al, Geophysical Research Letters, July 1, 2022
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2022GL099381
De-Urbanization of Surface Temperatures with the Landsat-Based “Built-Up” Dataset
By Roy Spencer, His Blog, Nov 2, 2022
The Dangers of Low Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations
By Craig D. Idso, Master Resource, Nov 1, 2022
Eco-extremists are leading the world towards despair, poverty, and starvation–Jordan Peterson
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 29, 2022
Interview with climatologist Bjorn Stevens
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Nov 2, 2022
“The interview contains a lot of other valuable material including surprises like a cloud the size of a building only holds a litre of water and that in consequence ‘If you distributed all the condensed water in the atmosphere evenly around the globe, you would get a water film that is only two tenths of a millimeter thick.’ And some pointed observations about the unsettled nature of climate science. So again we recommend that you check it out.”
Inflation By Design
By Daniel Turner, Real Clear Energy, Oct 31, 2022
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2022/10/31/inflation_by_design_862216.html
“Pencils and gas are both marvels of free market capitalism, as are countless petrochemical products, from plastics and rubber to laundry detergent and cosmetics. The only non-market force capable of disrupting this well-oiled machine is government.”
“As Pete Buttigieg, Biden’s Transportation secretary, said at a Senate hearing, “the more pain from the high price of gas,” the more it benefits the switch to the Democrat-preferred electric vehicle. How much of your pain will be enough for Mayor Pete? Not enough yet.”
Defending the Orthodoxy
Global heating: an urgent call for action to protect health
Editorial, The Lancet, Nov 5, 2022
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(22)02028-1/fulltext?dgcid=raven_jbs_etoc_email
“If you are a regular reader of Nature or Science, you will have seen with growing alarm reports pointing to the accelerating collapse of some of the most important planetary systems underpinning human survival. The Antarctic ice-shelf has contracted by almost 2% since 1997; further loss and thinning could lead to substantial sea-level rises. Climate change is causing rapid acidification of the Arctic Ocean, risking long-lasting damage to the region’s ecology.”
The missing risks of climate change
By James Rising, Nature, Oct 26, 2022
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-022-05243-6
From the abstract: “The risks of climate change are enormous, threatening the lives and livelihoods of millions to billions of people. The economic consequences of many of the complex risks associated with climate change cannot, however, currently be quantified.”
Defending the Orthodoxy – Bandwagon Science
Degrowth – what’s behind the economic theory and why does it matter right now?
By Victoria Masterson, World Economic Forum, Jun 15, 2022
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2022/06/what-is-degrowth-economics-climate-change/
Classified under Economic Progress?
“If economic growth continues to be the default goal, it will lead to climate catastrophe, the argument goes, with no hope of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees.”
Elevated CO2 levels cause mineral deficiency in plants resulting in less nutritious crops
Press Release, Phys.org. Nov 3, 2022
https://phys.org/news/2022-11-elevated-co2-mineral-deficiency-resulting.html
Link to paper: The decline of plant mineral nutrition under rising CO2: physiological and molecular aspects of a bad deal
By Alain Gojon, et al. Trends in Plant Science, Nov 3, 2022
https://www.cell.com/trends/plant-science/fulltext/S1360-1385(22)00247-3
Comment by Richard Courtney: It says, “For years, scientists have seen enhanced photosynthesis as one of the only possible bright sides of increasing levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2)—since plants use carbon dioxide for photosynthesis, it is anticipated that higher levels the gas will lead to more productive plants.”
“NO! The benefits of higher CO2 are undisputed; they are not ‘anticipated’. Indeed, it is so clear an effect that horticulturists pump CO2 into their greenhouses because the benefit is worth the cost.”
Transforming our world: the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development
By Staff, UN, Department of Economic and Social Affairs: Sustainable Development, Accessed Nov 1, 2022
https://sdgs.un.org/2030agenda
UNESCO says a third of World Heritage glaciers will vanish by 2050
By Sharon Udasin, The Hill, Nov 3, 2022
“To help save the remaining glaciers at World Heritage sites, UNESCO is calling for the creating of an international fund for monitoring and preservation.”
[SEPP Comment: Bring back the glacier in Manhattan?]
Questioning the Orthodoxy
The global climate change cult and the war on the mind – 1
By Stephen McMurry, TCW, Oct 31, 2022
UN’s Imaginary Planet
By Ron Clutz, Science Matters, Nov 4, 2022
WSJ Editorial Board Mocks the COP27 Global Warming Flagellants
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Nov 2, 2022
Up Under
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Nov 2, 2022
“As with reporting on climate, and much else besides, the overall impression is that the world is drastically short of adults nowadays, and far too well endowed with petulant grown children whose self-esteem was boosted at the expense of their capacities. Which is a very serious thing when trouble comes.”
“The idea that Canada’s capital, with its infamous winters, was really going to stop emitting CO2 in three decades wasn’t something promised by someone with a bad plan. It was promised by someone with no plan at all.”
A Consensus Of One
Video by Tony Heller, His Blog, Nov 2, 2022
https://realclimatescience.com/2022/11/a-consensus-of-one-3/
“’Historically, the claim of consensus has been the first refuge of scoundrels; it is a way to avoid debate by claiming that the matter is already settled. Whenever you hear the consensus of scientists agrees on something or other, reach for your wallet, because you’re being had.’ ― Michael Crichton”
Scientists Identify More Locations Where It Is Colder Today Than Anytime In The Last 10,000 Years
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Oct 31, 2022
Link to study of eastern Canada: Climate-driven Holocene ecohydrological and carbon dynamics from maritime peatlands of the Gulf of St. Lawrence, eastern Canada
By Léonie Perrier, et al. The Holocene, 2022
https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/09596836221095978
After Paris!
Good COP, bad COP
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Nov 2, 2022
COP27 Scams (Part 1)
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Nov 3, 2022
https://realclimatescience.com/2022/11/cop27-scams-part-1/
As the UN holds annual meetings to save the world from CO2, CO2 emissions double.
Britain Missed a £260 Million Climate Finance Payment Deadline
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Nov 4, 2022
Four issues to watch at the COP27 global climate summit
By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, Nov 5, 2022
China is the luminous elephant floating in the kitchen at COP27: the developing nation that builds space stations
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Nov 2, 2022
African countries to push for more fossil fuel projects at COP27
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 1, 2022
Alok Sharma Still In La La Land
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 4, 2022
“The window to limit global warming to 1.5C is ‘closing fast’, Alok Sharma, the Cop26 president [Glasgow], has warned as he called on Rishi Sunak to step up plans to reduce domestic emissions.”
“So either Sharma is lying, or he is utterly incompetent.
“As for his demand that the UK government spends tens of billions insulating homes when it is already broke, as well as not exploiting oil and gas reserves, it is a good job he is no longer in charge at BEIS.” [Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy]
Change in US Administrations
How OPEC Outplayed Biden
By Robert Rapier, Oil Price.com, Nov 1, 2022
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/How-OPEC-Outplayed-Biden.html
Biden threatens oil companies with ‘higher tax’ if they don’t increase production
By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, Oct 31, 2022
Biden seizes on high oil profits ahead of the midterms
By Karl Evers-Hillstrom and Rachel Frazin, The Hill, Nov 1, 2022
Biden says he will talk directly to oil companies soon about high gas prices
By Alex Gangitano, The Hill, Nov 4, 2022
[SEPP Comment: Is this the ACTION plan?]
Biden administration providing $13B to help lower Americans’ energy bills
By Zack Budryk, The Hill, Nov 2, 2022
“In addition to the LIHEAP funding, provided through the Department of Health and Human Services, the White House announced $9 billion in Inflation Reduction Act funds for energy efficiency upgrades to low-income households.”
Biden administration identifies ‘game-changing’ climate technology for priority investment
By Zack Budryk, The Hill, Nov 4, 2022
“The administration also announced plans to put $1.5 billion in funds from the Inflation Reduction Act toward modernizing and upgrading laboratory infrastructure across agencies, distributed through the Department of Energy.”
Problems in the Orthodoxy
Few corporations on pace to reach long-term net zero emissions targets: research
By Zack Budryk, The Hill, Nov 3, 2022
Link to report: Accelerating global companies toward net zero by 2050
New research shows progress and key steps necessary to speed efforts
By Staff, Accenture, 2022
“To date, only 34% of the Accenture Global 2000 companies (G2000)* have publicly stated net zero targets —a slight improvement on last year.
However, unless they accelerate progress, 93% of companies with net zero commitments will miss their targets.”
[SEPP Comment: Seven percent of 34 percent is a whopping 2.4 percent success rate. The three regions are Europe with 507 companies, North America with 600 companies, and Rest of World with 893 companies. What is the success rate in China??]
China Is Doubling Down on Coal Despite Its Green Ambitions
Nation could add more new coal capacity than the rest of the world combined, even as it prepares to relegate the fossil fuel to a backup role.
By Bloomberg News, Oct 30, 2022
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-31/china-wants-more-coal-power-and-to-hit-climate-change-targets
Good Citizen China carelessly crashes 23 tons of space junk on Earth, gets lucky, but 300 flights in Spain delayed
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Nov 5, 2022
Seeking a Common Ground
The climate ‘crisis’ isn’t what it used to be
By Judith Curry, Climate Etc. Nov 2, 2022
Red metal, green demand: Copper’s critical role in achieving net zero
By Nick Pickens, et al. Wood Mackenzie, October 2022
file:///C:/Users/Owner/Downloads/Horizons_October_2022_Whitepaper.pdf
The Most Important Climate Paper I’ve Read this Year
Climate policy cannot succeed if it requires perpetuating global inequity
By Roger Pielke Jr., The Honest Broker, Nov 4, 2022
https://rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/the-most-important-climate-paper?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=119454&post_id=82486049&isFreemail=true&utm_medium=email
Science, Policy, and Evidence
How 1970s conservation laws turned Australia into a tinderbox
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 2, 2022
Model Issues
Modelling both water and ice clouds: how goes the worthy effort?
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Nov 2, 2022
From the CO2Science archive:
Measurement Issues — Surface
Tokyo Mean October Mean Temperature Has Been Falling For Decades
By P Gosselin, Charts produced by Kirye, No Tricks Zone, Nov 4, 2022
“There was no warming, until that is NASA tampered with the data to produce a ‘warming’ trend. NASA’s trend starts to look like forgery and fakery.”
Measurement Issues — Atmosphere
UAH Global Temperature Update for October 2022: +0.32 deg. C
By Roy Spencer, His Blog, Nov 2, 2022
“The linear warming trend since January 1979 now stands at +0.13 C/decade (+0.12 C/decade over the global-averaged oceans, and +0.18 C/decade over global-averaged land).”
Changing Weather
Modelers/ Forecasters Can’t Even Agree On Europe’s Upcoming Winter
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Oct 29, 2022
Super Rainshadow and the Snow Situation Becomes Clearer
By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, Nov 3, 2022
https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2022/11/super-rainshadow-and-snow-situation.html
Changing Climate
Megadroughts In Asia In The Little Ice Age
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 30, 2022
Link to paper: A global context for megadroughts in monsoon Asia during the past millennium
By Ashish Sinha et al. Quaternary Science Reviews, January 2011
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0277379110003598
From the abstract: “Proxy reconstructions of precipitation from central India, north-central China, and southern Vietnam reveal a series of monsoon droughts during the mid 14th–15th centuries that each lasted for several years to decades. These monsoon megadroughts have no analog during the instrumental period. They occurred in the context of widespread thermal and hydrologic climate anomalies marking the onset of the Little Ice Age (LIA) and appear to have played a major role in shaping significant regional societal changes at that time.”
Scotland In The Little Ice Age
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 3, 2022
Changing Seas
New York Times prediction BUST: 1995 article cited climate ‘experts’ warning ‘most of the beaches on the East Coast of the U.S. could be gone in 25 years’
By Marc Morano, Climate Depot, Nov 1, 2022 [H/t WUWT]
https://www.climatedepot.com/2022/11/01/new-york-times-climate-prediction-bust-1995-article-cited-experts-warning-most-of-the-beaches-on-the-east-coast-of-the-u-s-could-be-gone-in-25-years/
Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice
Dramatic Cooling And Recent Ice Shelf Advance Over The Antarctic Peninsula
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Nov 3, 2022
Link to latest paper: Antarctic ice-shelf advance driven by anomalous atmospheric and sea-ice circulation
By Frzaer D.W. Christie, et al. Nature Geoscience, May 2022
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/360402431_Antarctic_ice-shelf_advance_driven_by_anomalous_atmospheric_and_sea-ice_circulation
From the Abstract: “… yet, in the ~20 years since these events, documented knowledge of frontal change along the entire ~1,400-km-long eastern Antarctic Peninsula is limited. Here, we show that 85% of the seaward ice-shelf perimeter fringing this coastline underwent uninterrupted advance between the early 2000s and 2019, in contrast to the two previous decades.”
Glaciers To Disappear By Mid-Century
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Nov 3, 2022
https://realclimatescience.com/2022/11/glaciers-to-disappear-by-mid-century/
No glaciers on Kilimanjaro by 2050
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 3, 2022
Acidic Waters
The Miraculous Resilience of the Great Barrier Reef
By John Dawson, Quadrant, Nov 1, 2022
“It takes a brave and self-confident participant in a ‘collegial’ groupthink to step out of its protection to become its target. But until someone has the integrity to do so, and the means of surviving with a voice, misdirecting groupthinks will be self-perpetuating—see the ABC and the universities.”
Agriculture Issues & Fear of Famine
Battling models
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Nov 2, 2022
“The UN estimates that some four million people in Haiti face ‘acute food insecurity’ which we imagine is how sociologists and bureaucrats say “starvation”. And note that there are fewer than 12 million Haitians.”
Lowering Standards
Third world Australian Met Bureau cuts back on weather balloons. Scientists say it’s “kind of horrific”.
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Nov 1, 2022
“It’s hard to believe, but instead of releasing two weather balloons from each site every day like the rest of the modern world, the BoM has decided to cuts costs and reduce many regional sites to just one or even none each day. This is in breach of the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) standards. Weather balloons are the prize “unrivaled” meteorological instrument. In roughly 900 places all over the world, weather balloons are launched twice a day, every day of the year. These radio back temperature, humidity and wind and pressure data as they rise up as high as 30 kilometers (20 miles) into the atmosphere.”
[SEPP Comment: The readings are ignored by the IPCC, the WMO, and BoM, so why have data that contradicts their beliefs?]
WSJ Promoting BEVs
By Donn Dears, Power For USA, Nov 1, 2022
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Yellow (Green) Journalism?
Bloomberg Don’t Understand Why China Needs Coal
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 2, 2022
Media bias smoked out
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Nov 2, 2022
“Whereas the people behind this article (the author, unsurprisingly, is a ‘Journalism Apprentice’ with a degree in Fine Art, presumably the appreciating of it not the trashing though these days one never knows, and her editors seem to hold PhDs in misleading hysteria) instead quote UN Alarmist-General Antonio Guterres that ‘Human health, livelihoods, household budgets and national economies are being pummelled as the fossil fuel addiction spirals out of control’.”
Hysterical Headlines Debunked: Pollution Doesn’t Cause Obesity
By Cameron English, ACSH, Nov 2, 2022
https://www.acsh.org/news/2022/11/02/hysterical-headlines-debunked-pollution-doesnt-cause-obesity-16639
Communicating Better to the Public – Exaggerate, or be Vague?
A warm bath at the Hotel Climate
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Nov 2, 2022
“We have cut expected warming almost in half in just five years by fiddling the computer models. Despite oft-repeated claims of plunging renewables costs, driven mostly by subsidies not real technological improvements, hydrocarbons still account for almost exactly as much of world energy usage as they did 20 years ago and there’s no sign of significant change. What’s more, and despite the remarkably silly if soothing notion of ‘a truly global political mobilization’ that didn’t include China, India, Russia, the Middle East, Africa or Latin America, human output of ‘greenhouse gases’ continues to rise.”
Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.
Now climate change makes fossil fuels “unreliable”, the lamest excuse for grid failure, yet
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Oct 29, 2022
“Extreme weather events – high winds, heatwaves, freezing rain, and loss of glaciers and snowpack mean once reliable sources of power can fail.”
Renewable records tumble? How the ABC turns a grid headache into a glorious solar achievement
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Nov 3, 2022
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda
King Charles & David Attenborough parrot WWF activist nonsense they naively accept as ‘science’
By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, Nov 1, 2022
The top issues liberal media outlets have blamed on climate change, from ISIS to hate speech
The Washington Post blamed climate change for ‘hate speech’ in a recent piece
By Nikolas Lanum, Fox News, Oct 27, 2022
https://www.foxnews.com/media/the-top-issues-liberal-media-outlets-have-blamed-climate-change-isis-hate-speech
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda on Children
Students suffering ‘grief’ over climate change offered support sessions
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 1, 2022
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Children for Propaganda
Greta Thunberg Calls For “Overthrow Of Whole Capitalist System”
By Paul Joseph Watson, Via Zero Hedge, Nov 1, 2022
Questioning European Green
UK Trapped In The Green Energy Cul-de-Sac
By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, Oct 30, 2022
https://www.manhattancontrarian.com/blog/2022-10-30-uk-trapped-in-the-green-energy-cul-de-sac
UK chaos: It’s almost like Fracking was the biggest threat?
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Oct 31, 2022
German Energy-Driven Food Inflation Skyrockets 20.3% In October, Year-On-Year!
By P Gosslin, No Tricks Zone, Nov 1, 20222
Questioning Green Elsewhere
Joel Kotkin: Biden, Trudeau choose green war on oil and gas over working class
Debut column: In the U.S. midterm elections, green obsessions could help the Republicans beat even attractive Democratic candidates
By Joel Kotkin, National Post, Oct 31, 2022
https://nationalpost.com/opinion/joel-kotkin-biden-trudeau-choose-green-war-on-oil-and-gas-over-working-class
Developing Nations Want $1.3 Trillion A Year
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 30, 2022
“With the midterms almost certain to lead to a GOP majority in the House, and probably in the Senate as well, it is likely that no more money will be approved during the rest of Biden’s term.
“Without big money from the US, it is unlikely even the $100 billion target will be met.”
Subsidies and Mandates Forever
Rishi Sunak must resist pressure to bail out green ‘losers’ like Britishvolt
Press Statement: Net Zero Watch, Nov 1, 2022
“Stunningly high energy costs resulting from nearly two decades of failed low carbon energy policy clearly haven’t helped Britishvolt, but the government’s attempt to pick a green winner was probably doomed from the outset. Like all planned economies, a planned Green economy is almost certain to fail, and in spite of the best of intentions.”
Energy Issues – Non-US
U.S. LNG Cannot Replace The Russian Natural Gas That Europe Has Lost
By Tsvetana Paraskova, Oil Price.com, Oct 28, 2022
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/US-LNG-Cannot-Replace-The-Russian-Natural-Gas-That-Europe-Has-Lost.html
IEA World Energy Outlook 2022
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 29, 2022
Link to report: World Energy Outlook 2022
By Staff, IEA, October 2022
“And that is why even the IEA have been forced to accept that the world will still be heavily reliant on fossil fuels for many decades to come.”
IEA Expects Demand For All Fossil Fuels To Peak In The Next Decade
By Tsvetana Paraskova, Oil Price.com, Oct 27, 2022
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/IEA-Expects-Demand-For-All-Fossil-Fuels-To-Peak-In-The-Next-Decade.html
OPEC forecasts fossil fuel surge through midcentury
By Sharon Udasin, The Hill, Oct 31, 2022
Fossil Fuel Investment Has Dropped By A Third Since 2015
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 30, 2022
“The IEA’s naively oversimplistic projections simply assume that building wind and solar farms will do the trick. But the world is a complex place and does not work like that.
“The Russian invasion of Ukraine has given us a warning. We had better not ignore it.”
Oil Shortage Forecasts Clash With Grim Economic Projections
By Irina Slav, Oil Price.com, Nov 1, 2022
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Oil-Shortage-Forecasts-Clash-With-Grim-Economic-Projections.html
Energy Issues — US
Seriously low diesel supply threatens to worsen inflation
By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, Oct 30, 2022
The Democrat War on Fossil Fuels
By William Manning, American Thinker, Nov 3, 2022
https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2022/11/the_democrat_war_on_fossil_fuels.html
Washington’s Control of Energy
How Biden’s abuse of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to win votes harms our energy security
Instead of using the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) to protect America’s oil security, the Biden administration is abusing the SPR to harm America’s oil security.
By Alex Epstein, His Blog, Nov 2. 2022
https://alexepstein.substack.com/p/how-bidens-abuse-of-the-spr-to-win
Banning Hydrofluoric Acid Won’t Eliminate Risk, But It Will Threaten Fuel Supplies
By Tim Shepperd, RealClear Energy, Oct 30, 2022
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2022/10/30/banning_hydrofluoric_acid_wont_eliminate_risk_but_it_will_threaten_fuel_supplies_861603.html
“These policymakers—most of whom I would venture to say have never visited a refinery—are essentially claiming that safer alkylation technologies exist even though that’s not the case. One alternative—sulfuric acid—isn’t safer, it just poses different risks and is subject to many of the same regulations as HF.”
Gas Furnaces and Big Brother Revisited
By Mark Krebs, Master Resource, Nov 3, 2022
[SEPP Comment: Washington’s one-size-fits-all mentality will be disastrous for those living where winters get cold!]
Return of King Coal?
King Coal-Cat Meows, I Got a Few Lives Left!
By Duggan Flanakin, Real Clear Energy, Nov 1, 2022
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2022/11/01/king_coal-cat_meows_i_got_a_few_lives_left_862442.html
Oil Spills, Gas Leaks & Consequences
LNG Emissions Are Ten Times Piped Gas
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 4, 2022
“I don’t think anybody outside of McGrath’s little circle of eco-loons give two hoots about how much carbon dioxide is being emitted. Instead, they are worried about the price of energy and its availability.”
[SEPP Comment: Now, New England is pleading to eliminate the 1920 Jones Act to allow LNG from the Gulf Coast, because it and New York have prevented pipelines from Pennsylvania and the Gulf Coast?]
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind
America’s Offshore Wind Farms Face Headwinds
By Josh Saul and Will Wade (Bloomberg), gCaptain, Nov 1, 2022
[SEPP Comment: Not enough subsidies for “lowering costs?”]
Energy cost curbs are impeding Europe’s renewables rollout, Vestas warns
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 4, 2022
Massachusetts wind power project ‘no longer viable’ without contract adjustments, says developer
By Emma Newburger, CNBC, Oct 31, 2022
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/31/massachusetts-wind-power-project-no-longer-viable-developer.html
“The Commonwealth Wind project, which would supply 1,200 megawatts of offshore wind power starting in 2028, ‘is no longer viable and would not be able to move forward’ under the terms of contract, according to a motion recently filed by the developer.”
[SEPP Comment: Not enough subsidies for this “declining cost” industry?]
Massachusetts offshore wind project “no longer viable”
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 2, 2022
“But surely wind power is now the cheapest source of electricity? So how comes it’s not viable?”
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Other
Is Hydrogen The Answer?
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 29, 2022
“The cheapest way to make hydrogen in bulk is steam reforming gas, known as grey hydrogen. But this process emits a lot of carbon dioxide, and is also much more expensive than just using gas in the first place.”
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Storage
Concerns raised over an energy storage project along the Missouri River
By Joshua Haiark, South Dakota Searchlight, Nov 3, 2022
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Vehicles
Electric Cars–Magical Thinking
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 1, 2022
“An easy to watch video by John Stossel:”
‘Zero Emissions’ From Electric Vehicles? Here’s Why That Claim Has Zero Basis
By John Murawski, Real Clear Investigations, Oct 27, 2022
https://www.realclearinvestigations.com/articles/2022/10/27/zero_emissions_from_electric_vehicles_heres_why_that_claim_has_zero_basis_860938.html
Why Your First Electric Car Might Be Chinese
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 4, 2022
“However, as Bloomberg point out, EVs are a new technology, and by banning conventional cars, we are giving away that dominance.”
Carbon Schemes
This simple material could scrub carbon dioxide from power plant smokestacks
By Staff Writers, Washington DC (SPX), Nov 03, 2022
https://www.spacedaily.com/reports/This_simple_material_could_scrub_carbon_dioxide_from_power_plant_smokestacks_999.html
Link to paper: Aluminum formate, Al(HCOO)3: An earth-abundant, scalable, and highly selective material for CO2 capture
By Hayden Evans, et al. AAAS Science Advances, Nov 2, 2022
https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.ade1473
California Dreaming
California’s climate crisis is intensifying quickly and taking a heavy toll on residents, new data reveals
By Stephanie Elam, CNN, Nov 2, 2022
https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/02/us/california-climate-crisis-impact-report/index.html
Link to report: Indicators of Climate Change in California Report
By Staff, Office of Environmental Health Hazard Assessment, Nov 2022
Health, Energy, and Climate
‘Biggest threat facing humanity’: Canada’s public health agency pivots from COVID to ‘climate change’
By Kennedy Hall, Lifesite, Oct 28, 2022 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
https://www.lifesitenews.com/news/biggest-threat-facing-humanity-canadas-public-health-agency-pivots-from-covid-to-climate-change/
Link to report: Mobilizing Public Health Action on Climate Change in Canada
Chief Public Health Officer of Canada’s Report on the State of Public Health in Canada 2022, October 2022
BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE
Energy Experts
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Nov 4, 2022
https://realclimatescience.com/2022/11/energy-experts/
Government created disasters.
And when the glacier goes, you go
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Nov 2, 2022
Climate change to produce more rainbows, study finds
By Marcie Grabowski, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Phys.org, Oct 31, 2022 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
https://phys.org/news/2022-10-climate-rainbows.html
Link to paper: Global rainbow distribution under current and future climates
By Kimberly M.Carlson, et al. Global Environmental Change, November 2022
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S095937802200142X?via%3Dihub
ARTICLES
1. Climate Change and the Lancet’s ‘Heat Death’ Deception
With COP27 approaching, the journal claims rising temperatures have killed people but ignores that they appear to have saved far more.
By Bjorn Lomborg, WSJ, Nov. 4, 2022
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-lancets-heat-death-deception-united-nations-cop-27-cold-study-population-growth-technology-energy-climate-11667580996?mod=hp_opin_pos_3#cxrecs_s
TWTW Summary: The President of the Copenhagen Consensus writes:
“As the United Nations’ annual global climate summit, COP27, nears, it’s important to look with skepticism at the academic reports many news outlets cite as evidence supporting radical climate policies. Too often, they use highly skewed data that seem to have been carefully selected to support aggressive environmental regulations. One recent and much-cited Lancet report appears deliberately deceptive.
The study offers a frightening statistic: Rapidly rising temperatures have increased annual global heat deaths among older people by 68% in less than two decades. That stark figure has been cited all over, from the BBC and Time to the Washington Post and the Times of India, the world’s largest-selling English-language daily. U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres publicized the report, tweeting a link with a grave statement of his own, ‘The climate crisis is killing us. #COP27 must deliver a down-payment on climate solutions that match the scale of the problem.’
But while their model for heat deaths is based on solid academic research, the report commits an amateur statistical fallacy by blaming the increase in heat deaths on ‘rapidly increasing temperatures.’
Annual heat deaths have increased significantly among people 65 and older world-wide. The average deaths per year increased 68% from the early 2000s to the late 2010s. But that is almost entirely because there are so many more older people today than there were 20 years ago, in no small part thanks to medical innovations that keep us alive longer. Measured across the same time span the Lancet maps heat deaths, the number of people 65 and older has risen by 60%, or almost as much as heat deaths. When the increase in heat mortality is adjusted for this population growth, the actual rise that can be attributed to rising temperatures is only 5%.
It is hard not to see the Lancet study’s failure to adjust this figure as a deliberate act of deception. Any academic who works with statistics would know to adjust the deaths to account for population growth. I’ve actually raised this issue to the Lancet before.”
Lomborg details his prior correction that The Lancelet ignored, then writes:
“This year’s study also cherry-picks data by discussing only heat deaths. Around the world, far more people die each year from cold than heat. In the U.S. and Canada between 2000 and 2019, an average of 20,000 people died from heat annually and more than 170,000 from cold. This omission matters even more because cold deaths are decreasing with rising temperatures. Modeling from the Global Burden of Disease replicates the relatively small increase in heat deaths shown by the Lancet, but shows a much larger decline in cold deaths from rising temperatures. Based on today’s population size, the current temperatures cause about 17,000 more heat deaths in older people, but also result in more than half a million fewer cold deaths. Reporting one finding without the other is misleading about the true effect of climate change.
“This dishonesty leads to worse policy outcomes. While activists push for extreme and expensive climate policies that threaten economic growth, those aren’t the only or even the best ways to help. Temperatures rose throughout the 20th century, but the U.S. nonetheless saw a decrease in heat deaths, largely thanks to air-conditioning. Policies that focus on lifting people out of poverty and providing affordable, reliable sources of energy would allow the rest of the world to reduce heat deaths and live more comfortable lives. They would also help stave off the much greater threat of cold deaths.”
*****************
2. An Energy Education for Democrats
Biden’s climate policies have raised prices, and he’s mad as hell about it.
By The Editorial Board, WSJ, Oct. 30, 2022
https://www.wsj.com/articles/an-energy-education-for-democrats-oil-majors-profit-drilling-fossil-fuel-gas-permitting-inflation-midterms-biden-11667155465?mod=hp_opin_pos_1
“Continental Resources founder Harold Hamm said this month he is taking his company private to have the ‘freedom to explore.’ ‘We have all felt the limits of being publicly held over the last few years, and in such a time as this, when the world desperately needs what we produce, I have never been more optimistic,’ Mr. Hamm wrote to employees.”
*****************
3. Biden Calls for Penalties on Oil-and-Gas Companies’ ‘Windfall’ Profits
Head of one oil and natural gas industry trade group says raising taxes would discourage investment in new production
By Andrew Restuccia and Collin Eaton, WSJ, Updated Oct. 31, 2022
https://www.wsj.com/articles/biden-calls-for-penalties-on-oil-and-gas-companies-windfall-profits-11667252343?mod=business_minor_pos13
“’Their profits are a windfall of war,’ Mr. Biden said Monday at the White House. ‘At a time of war, any company receiving historic windfall profits like this has a responsibility to act beyond the narrow self-interest of its executives and shareholders.’ World energy prices have risen in the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.”
[SEPP Comment: The price of US crude rose throughout 2021, before Russia invaded Ukraine. https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/prices.php.]
*****************
4. Why Buy Municipal Bonds if the World Is Ending?
States and cities seem much less sure about climate change in their disclosures than in their lawsuits against energy companies.
By R.A. Moss, WSJ, Nov. 2, 2022
https://www.wsj.com/articles/municipal-bonds-world-end-honolulu-new-jersey-general-obligation-judicial-climate-activism-esg-energy-companies-lawsuit-11667398983?mod=hp_opin_pos_6#cxrecs_s
“New Jersey reverses its position with specific language in its legal complaint. Among many allegations, the state claims that ‘oceans are acidifying at an alarming rate because of fossil-fuel burning, endangering New Jersey’s coastal ecosystems and economy.’ An especially shrill line reads, ‘As a result of the fossil fuel industry’s lies and deceit, the State has paid billions of dollars to clean up climate change-induced disasters like Superstorm Sandy.’”
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