Weekly Climate and Energy News Roundup #498 – Watts Up With That?
The Week That Was: 2022-04-02 (April 2, 2022)
Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org)
The Science and Environmental Policy Project
Quote of the Week: “Where the scare goes the money goes” – Larry Bell [H/t Jay Lehr]
Number of the Week: 63% more by 2030
THIS WEEK:
By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)
Scope: This Week will begin with a discussion of a March 3 post by Roy Spencer on the false precision associated with measurements by instruments on satellites. Satellites simply cannot measure things occurring on earth with the precision many modelers calculate. False precision is a problem in many studies ranging from sea levels to atmospheric radiation. Models used for long term forecasts that contain false precision are factually meaningless.
The model presented by Howard Hayden based on the work of William van Wijngaarden and William Happer will be discussed in this light. As Hayden insists, his analysis is not suitable for prediction.
Jennifer Marohasy presents evidence showing how the Australian Bureau of Meteorology has tampered with the surface temperature record entrusted to it. The city of Darwin is the most glaring example.
Questions arising from the launch of a new satellite to measure sea levels will be discussed. The records from previous satellite differ from those from tidal gages at geologically stable locations. Merging different data sets with diverging records is a serious error common to many studies in climate science.
The assumptions that wind and solar can easily and affordably replace fossil fuels are being challenged by experience. Yet government promoters continue to claim that storage of electricity is easy. But they have no examples of its success except pumped-hydro storage which requires massive scale that would not be permitted. TWTW will discuss certain concepts offered, that have not been physically defined. They are on the “pixie dust” level.
In light of significant errors common to climate “science” that are not corrected and electricity storage issues that are not realistic, it is ludicrous, but serious, that the Security and Exchange Commission (SEC) would announce new regulations to enforce climate policy on private corporations by requiring them to assess the risks they create in emitting greenhouse gases, particularly carbon dioxide. Reactions to these regulations will be discussed further.
The energy minister of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has stated that in 2021 western politicians were vilifying oil producers, now they are glorifying them. Such actions must earn the contempt of those so treated. This applies for the US administration as well and will be discussed.
The 2022 April Fools contest is announced.
******************
False Precision: Even though Roy Spencer writes:
Spencer explains why he thinks human causation is mostly a statement of faith. He writes:
“ALL temperature change in any system is due to an imbalance between the rates of energy gain and energy lost. In the case of the climate system, it is believed the Earth each year absorbs a global average of about 240 Watts per sq. meter of solar energy and emits about the same amount of infrared energy back to outer space.
“If we are to believe the last ~15 years of Argo float measurements of the ocean (to 2000 m depth), there has been a slight warming equivalent to an imbalance of 1 Watt per sq. meter, suggesting a very slight imbalance in those energy flows. [Boldface added]
One watt per sq. meter. [Italics in original]
“That tiny imbalance can be compared to the 5 to 10 Watt per sq. meter uncertainty in the ~240 Watt per sq. meter average flows in and out of the climate system. We do not know those flows that accurately. Our satellite measurement systems do not have that level of absolute accuracy.” [Boldface added]
Global energy balance diagrams (which you have seen) have the numbers massaged, on the basic assumption that all of the imbalance is due to humans.
“I repeat: NONE of the natural, global-average energy flows in the climate system are known to better than about 5-10 Watts per sq. meter…compared to the ocean warming-based imbalance of 1 Watt per sq. meter.
“What this means is that recent warming could be mostly natural…and we would never know it.
“But climate scientists simply assume that the climate system has been in perfect, long-term harmonious balance, if not for humans. This is a pervasive, quasi-religious assumption of the Earth science community for as long as I can remember. [Boldface added]
“But this position is largely an anthropocentric statement of faith.
“That doesn’t make it wrong. It’s just…uncertain.
“Unfortunately, that uncertainty is never conveyed to the public or to policymakers.” [Boldface added]
Two days before the above post, on March 1, Spencer reported the February 2022 update to the global average lower tropospheric temperature anomaly:
“The linear warming trend since January 1979 still stands at +0.13 C/decade (+0.12 C/decade over the global-averaged oceans, and +0.18 C/decade over global-averaged land).”
There is nothing dangerous about the warming occurring in the atmosphere and certainly no reason to declare a climate crisis, imposing severe government restrictions on the use of fossil fuels. The predictions/projections/forecasts of the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and its followers are a clear example of the importance of a comment by Richard Feynman:
“If there is something very slightly wrong in our definition of the theories, then the full mathematical rigor may convert these errors into ridiculous conclusions.”
Claiming the globe is experiencing a climate crisis is a ridiculous conclusion. See link under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
******************
A Better Way: As explained in last week’s TWTW. Atomic, Molecular, and Optical (AMO) physicist Howard Hayden has posted ten essays on Basic Climate Physics on the SEPP website. The approach used avoids the mess involved in trying to model the weather for long range forecasts. Unlike the slight energy imbalances noted by Spencer, the disagreement between radiative forcing by CO2 and the surface infrared radiation (IR) emission that would result from IPCC’s predicted temperature rise is very substantial.
The well-known Planetary Heat Balance equation applies to all planets that do not have a heat source. It says, that at equilibrium (which involves averaging over the complete orbit), the heat absorbed from the sun equals the heat radiated into space. An important consequence is that—at equilibrium—any change in outgoing IR must be caused by a change in either the solar intensity or the overall albedo. IPCC’s climate models often ignore this fact when calculating the Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity.
Of course, both the solar intensity (known as Total Solar Irradiance, TSI) and the albedo can change. IPCC’s climate models assume no change in solar intensity.
Since the radiative forcing by CO2 is entirely inadequate to capture the increased surface IR from IPCC’s predicted warming, IPCC could speculate that the albedo might decrease by enough to send the excess IR to space; however, IPCC’s models show slight increases in albedo. By contrast, Svensmark’s notion that the influence of the solar magnetic field on the cosmic ray flux, hence the albedo, gets the algebraic sign of the changes in albedo correct.
Some studies have shown correlations of climate with solar activity, the most notable of which is that the Little Ice Age coincided with the Maunder Minimum (of sunspots).
Hayden’s application of basic physics provides a good guide from which we can evaluate climate models. Use the model’s own numbers to see whether they make sense. For the essays, see links under http://sepp.org/science_papers.cfm
******************
Betrayal of Trust: Jennifer Marohasy reviews 224 temperature series, which have been “homogenized” (altered) by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. Fortunately, some datasets have been preserved as entered. The most glaring example of alteration is for Darwin, which was bombed during World War II. Marohasy writes:
“The extent of their remodeling is mind boggling, including for Darwin, where in the most recent iteration temperatures in the historical record are artificially cooled including for the period of World War 2.
“Darwin was bombed 64 times by the Japanese during World War 2. The first air raid destroyed the weather station at the post office and killed the postmaster, but Darwin also had a weather station at the airport that had been in operation almost a year.
“The Australian War Memorial would never change important historical war records, yet the Australian Bureau of Meteorology has remodeled Darwin’s temperature record dropping down maximum temperatures during World War 2 by on average 1°C for 1941 and on average 0.5 °C for 1942. The Bureau has done this by changing daily temperatures.”
She then gives other examples of fiddling with the data. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
******************
New, Improved Data? Writing in WUWT, Kip Hansen describes the fanfare surrounding a new U.S.-European satellite to estimate sea levels. He presents graphs showing results from previous satellites, starting in late 1992. There is significant variation in the rate of rise. There are many adjustments to the data. Yet, for some reason government agencies reporting sea levels ignore periods during which the data shows the rate of rise has fallen. Among his conclusions, Hansen writes:
“There is a new satellite up that, among other things, will measure sea level rise. It is in reality no more accurate than the previous sea level rise monitoring satellites, the Jason series, but it will continue the long-term effort begun in late 1992.
“Sea Level changes measured by satellite and reported in single digit millimeters are the result of computational hubris:
Hansen then defines the term: “Computational Hubris: An inordinate and unjustified trust, or faith if you like, in the power of advanced computational machines and processes to produce highly accurate and extremely precise results from relatively inaccurate and imprecise, highly uncertain data using techniques and methods that have not been tested nor verified to be suited to, or sufficient for, the purpose.”[Boldface in original]
Also, in WUWT, Larry Hamlin goes through many of the false claims made about sea level rise since 1990, the beginning of the IPCC. US agencies, such as NOAA, USGS, and the Corps of Engineers have contributed to these false claims. In the long post, he discusses the report “Global and Regional Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the United States” endorsed by NOAA, EPA, DOD, Corps of Engineers, USGS, and FEMA. Hamlin writes:
“The 2022 Global Sea Level Rise study ‘extrapolations’ and ‘trajectories’ used for assessing sea level rise during the 30-year period between 2020 and 2050 rely upon speculative and methodologically inadequate and uncertain claims of accelerating tide gauge measurements that are not supported by other well established global tide gauge data analysis. These inadequacies result in flawed claims of higher rates of global sea level rise during this 2020 to 2050 period asserted in the latest year 2022 GMSL [Global Mean Sea Level] study.”
Perhaps the most absurd part is the discussion of uncertainties. As Hamlin writes:
“Specifically identified under Process Uncertainty is the following ‘For example, the sensitivity of the Antarctic ice sheets is not yet fully understood, (even though this process is the ‘dominant source’ of longer term global mean sea level rise as noted in both the 2017 and 2022 NOAA studies) leading to a substantial uncertainty in how sea level reacts to forcing changes.
“Additionally, the future conditions from processes, such as changes in ocean circulation and VLM, that impact RSL change more locally have uncertainty’.
“Emissions Uncertainty is noted as ‘Various forcing scenarios describe possible GHG emission pathways, which range from quick emissions reductions to unmitigated future emissions.’
‘The uncertainty in the future pathway is referred to as emissions uncertainty.’
“Under Natural Variability it is noted that ‘Next to sea level changes caused by changes in GHG forcing, many physical processes cause natural variation (e.g., ENSO). The scenarios and uncertainty ranges for each scenario and for the observation-based trajectories in this report do not include variations due to natural variability.’
“The updated GMSL values in 2050, 2100, and 2150 relative to a 2000 baseline are shown for each of the five scenarios in Table 2.3.” [Table not shown here, Boldface in original]
In section 3, “Emissions Matter”, the report itself states:
“Current and future emissions matter. About 2 feet (0.6 meters) of sea level rise along the U.S. coastline is increasingly likely between 2020 and 2100 because of emissions to date. Failing to curb future emissions could cause an additional 1.5 – 5 feet (0.5 – 1.5 meters) of rise for a total of 3.5 – 7 feet (1.1 – 2.1 meters) by the end of this century.”
The government cannot produce climate models that are capable of describing what is occurring in the atmosphere today, where the greenhouse effect occurs. Yet, it produces reports with projections all the way to 2150 on what may happen? This truly is an example of using mathematics to convert small errors into ridiculous conclusions. See links under Defending the Orthodoxy and Changing Seas.
******************
Imaginary Reliability? As government entities expand false claims in “scientific” reports, green organizations intensify their false claims that solar and wind power can be affordable and reliable. For example, National Public Radio claims that misinformation is delaying wind and solar projects and reports
“Climate change is killing people, but there’s still time to reverse the damage.”
“In reaction to the [latest UN] report, U.N. Secretary-General, António Guterres doubled down on that message, calling fossil fuels ‘a dead end.’
“’Coal and other fossil fuels are choking humanity,’ Guterres says. Fossil fuel companies, banks and investors are all complicit, he argues. ‘Those in the private sector still financing coal must be held to account. Oil and gas giants – and their underwriters – are also on notice.’”
If there is any source of misinformation it is the UN, and its Secretary-General is flopping like a fish out of water in its reaction to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Why trust any organization that claims results of climate studies are scientific when they ignore the great advances made in atmospheric science over the past 50 years?
Francis Menton gives a good overview of many of the false claims that solar and wind power can be made affordable and reliable. In “The People Promising Us “Net Zero” Have No Clue About The Energy Storage Problem” Menton covers ambitious plants in California, Australia, and New York. He summarizes the problem as:
“It is (or certainly should be) obvious that wind and solar generators have substantial periods when they generate nothing (e.g., calm nights), and other times when they generate far less than users demand. Get out a spreadsheet to do some calculations based on actual historical patterns of usage and generation from wind and solar sources, and you will find that to have a fully wind/solar generation system and make it through a year without a catastrophic failure, you will need approximately a three-times overbuild (based on rated capacity) of the wind/solar system, plus storage for something in the range of 24 – 30 days of average usage. For these purposes “usage” at any given moment is measured in gigawatts, but usage for some period of time is measured in gigawatt hours, not gigawatts. California’s average electricity usage for 2020 was about 31 GW; Australia’s was about 26 GW; and New York’s was about 18 GW.
“To calculate how much storage you need in gigawatt hours, multiply average usage in GW by 30 days and 24 hours per day. So, California will need about 22,302 GWH of storage, Australia about 18,720 GWH, and New York about 12,960 GWH. That is to supply current levels of demand. For the “everything electrified” case, triple all of these numbers: 66,906 GWH for California, 56,160 GWH for Australia, and 38,880 GWH for New York. Price that out at current costs of Tesla-type lithium-ion batters (~$150/KWH) and you will get around $10 trillion for California, $8.4 trillion for Australia, and $5.8 trillion for New York.” [Boldface added]
Menton then describes how an independent analyst, Roger Caiazza, discovered how New York will address its storage problem.
“Here’s Caiazza’s big discovery. Rather than proposing a massive build of batteries, New York’s ‘experts’ think they have a better idea: the ‘DEFR’. That stands for ‘Dispatchable Emissions Free Resource.’ And what exactly is that? As far as Caiazza can determine, it’s something that hasn’t been invented yet. Caiazza links to this March 24 Report from New York’s Independent System Operator, title ‘System and Resource Outlook Update.’ Plow your way through 17 pages of incomprehensible gibberish and you will come to this on page 18:
“’DEFR Builds Allowed Starting in 2030
“’Input Assumption Adjusted:
“’First allowable year for DEFR builds advanced to 2030
“’• Caveats:
• Significant uncertainty related to cost / availability of DEFR technologies, as well as regulatory definition of “zero-emissions” compliant technologies
• Assumption is not based on estimate of realistic timeline for first potential DEFR additions
“’• Observations:
* DEFR capacity build earlier on in model horizon, although comparable capacity builds by 2040
* Decreased fossil capacity (i.e., primarily earlier retirements and less new builds) offset by earlier DEFR capacity additions
“Yes, we are to be completely dependent on so-called ‘DEFR’ technologies, which have not been invented yet and as to which ‘significant uncertainties’ exist. Could this get any more ridiculous?”
New York politicians believe that the imaginary climate crisis is real and will address the real electricity storage problem with imaginary storage. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy, Defending the Orthodoxy and Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind.
******************
Can It Pass Its Regulations? The declaration by the SEC that it will regulate carbon dioxide emissions for climate impacts has prompted a number of responses. Energy analyst Donn Dears writes:
“Americans rely on savings and investments to provide for their future, whether it be to buy a home or ensure a safe retirement.
“They should be terrorized by this SEC proposal, whose premises cannot be supported by the facts.
“The SEC document says, ‘68 out of 77 industries are likely to be significantly affected by climate risk.’
“If 90% of all industries are to be affected by GHG emissions and efforts to achieve net zero, then a huge percentage of people’s savings are going to be threatened by the SEC proposal. Resources used to eliminate GHG emissions will detract from a company’s ability to pursue its purpose.”
In Master Resource, Richard Fulmer writes:
“In her response to the announcement, SEC Commissioner Hester M. Peirce offered objections to the proposal, citing its lack of:
“A credible rationale for such a prescriptive framework when our existing disclosure requirements already capture material risks relating to climate change.
“A materiality limitation.
“A compelling explanation of how the proposal will generate comparable, consistent, and reliable disclosures. [Boldface added]
“An adequate statutory basis for the proposal.
“A reasonable estimate of costs to companies; and
“An honest reckoning with the consequences to investors, the economy, and this agency.
The following are highlights of Pierce’s statement:
“The proposal turns the disclosure regime on its head. Current SEC disclosure mandates are intended to provide investors with an accurate picture of the company’s present and prospective performance through managers’ own eyes.… The proposal, by contrast, tells corporate managers how regulators, doing the bidding of an array of non-investor stakeholders, expect them to run their companies. It identifies a set of risks and opportunities—some perhaps real, others clearly theoretical—that managers should be considering and even suggests specific ways to mitigate those risks. It forces investors to view companies through the eyes of a vocal set of stakeholders, for whom a company’s climate reputation is of equal or greater importance than a company’s financial performance.…”
The Biden Administration has failed to produce physical evidence that there is a physical climate crisis caused by use of fossil fuels. Yet, it is using this imaginary crisis to cause real harm to the American public. See links under Expanding the Orthodoxy and Below the Bottom Line.
******************
SEPP’S APRIL FOOLS AWARD – THE JACKSON
SEPP is conducting its annual vote for the recipient of the coveted trophy, The Jackson, a lump of coal. Readers are asked to nominate and vote for who they think is most deserving. The entire Biden Administration won in 2021, so individuals in it are still eligible.
The voting will close on July 30. Please send your nominee and a brief reason why the person is qualified for the honor to [email protected]. The awardee will be announced at the annual meeting of the Doctors for Disaster Preparedness on August 14 to 16.
******************
Number of the Week: 63% more by 2030: According to reports:
“Union Minister of Coal, Mines and Parliamentary Affairs Pralhad Joshi said on Monday the country’s coal demand is likely to increase to 1.5 billion tonnes by 2030, which will be around 63 per cent higher from the current level.”
Tonnes are metric tons or about 1.12 US tons (2,240 lbs.). According to Our World in Data, India emitted about 2.44 billion tons of CO2 in 2020, the US 4.71 billion, and China 10.67 billion. In 2006, China emitted more than the US for the first time; 6.49 tons compared with 6.05 tons. Assuming US emissions do not change and no great improvements in technology, India is on track to exceed the US in emissions shortly after 2030.
Despise all the dire warnings from the UN and the US, India and China do not believe the Himalayas will melt or that there is a climate crisis. Just like China, India will not go back to extreme poverty. See link under Return of King Coal?
Censorship
Illegal To Criticize Politicians In Germany
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Mar 31, 2022
Challenging the Orthodoxy — NIPCC
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science
Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2013
Summary: https://www.heartland.org/_template-assets/documents/CCR/CCR-II/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Biological Impacts
Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2014
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/climate-change-reconsidered-ii-biological-impacts/
Summary: https://www.heartland.org/media-library/pdfs/CCR-IIb/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels
By Multiple Authors, Bezdek, Idso, Legates, and Singer eds., Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change, April 2019
http://store.heartland.org/shop/ccr-ii-fossil-fuels/
Download with no charge:
Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming
The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus
By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), Nov 23, 2015
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/
Download with no charge:
Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate
S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008
http://www.sepp.org/publications/nipcc_final.pdf
Global Sea-Level Rise: An Evaluation of the Data
By Craig D. Idso, David Legates, and S. Fred Singer, Heartland Policy Brief, May 20, 2019
Why Blaming Recent Warming on Humans is Largely a Matter of Faith
By Roy Spencer, His Blog, Mar 3, 2022
Total Least Squares Bias when Explanatory Variables are Correlated
By Ross McKitrick, EssoAr, Mar 24, 2022
The People Promising Us “Net Zero” Have No Clue About The Energy Storage Problem
By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, Mar 27, 2022
CRISIS: Soaring Costs of Energy in UK/Europe – A Video Interview with Dr. Benny Peiser of GWPF
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Mar 30, 2022
The “100,000-Year Problem” and Earth’s Chaotic Non-Linear Climate
By Mike Jones, WUWT, Mar 28, 2022
Link to paper: The inter-glacial cycle is not a 100,000-year cycle, it is a shorter cycle with missing beats
By Michael Oldfield Jonas, World Journal of Advanced Research and Reviews, Mar 22, 2022
Comprehensive European Study Finds Warmer Climate Periods Do Not Lead To More Conflict, War
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Mar 27, 2022
Link to paper: A Song of Neither Ice nor Fire: Temperature Extremes had No Impact on Violent Conflict Among European Societies During the 2nd Millennium CE
By W. Christopher Carleton, et al, Frontiers in Earth Science, Nov 17, 2021
All 224 Homogenised Temperature Series – Including the Bombing of Darwin
By Jennifer Marohasy, Her Blog, Mar 31, 2022
Atmospheric Physicist: CO2 Explains 0.1°C Of 1975-2000 Warming – ‘One Fifth Of The IPCC Assumption’
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Mar 28, 2022
Link to paper: On the importance of the natural components in climate change study: Temperature rise in the study of climate change
By Syun Ichi Akasofu & Hiroshi L Tanaka, Physics & Astronomy International Journal, Aug 27, 2021
http://gpvjma.ccs.hpcc.jp/~tanaka/web/papers/PAIJ-05-00236.pdf
PERSPECTIVE: Inconvenient truths about energy
By Chris Wright, The Gazette (Denver), Mar 29, 2022
Defending the Orthodoxy
2022 Sea Level Rise Technical Report
Updated projections available through 2150 for all U.S. coastal waters.
By Staff, NOAA, NASA, EPA, USGS, Department of Homeland Security, FEMA, Corps of Engineers, and DOD, 2022
Misinformation is derailing renewable energy projects across the United States
By Julia Simon, NPR, Mar 28, 2022
Link to story: Climate change is killing people, but there’s still time to reverse the damage
By Rebecca Hersher, NPR, Feb 28, 2022
5 New Reports Show Wind And Solar Power Can Cripple Putin, Secure Climate Goals
By David Vetter, Forbes, Mar 30, 2022
Link to one such report: Global Electricity Review 2022
By Dave Jones, EMBER, Mar 30, 2022
[SEPP Comment: The report addresses capacity, but not reliability. Capacity means little without reliability.]
Energy: No Time for Half Measures
By Carl Pope & Robbie Diamond, Real Clear Energy, March 30, 2022
“The real solution to overpriced fuel is to end oil’s chokehold on our transportation system and economy. That means transitioning our ground transportation fleet to electric vehicles (EVs), powered by a domestic, stable, and diverse portfolio of energy resources instead of being dependent on one fuel source.”
Questioning the Orthodoxy
A Brief Summary Of How ‘Global Warming’ Science Has Changed Since 1998
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Mar 31, 2022
[SEPP Comment: The claims of certainty become more intense, as data shows results are diverging greatly from reality.]
Climate Past Far From Settled: 7 Major Temperature Reconstructions Find No Agreement
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Mar 29, 2022
[SEPP Comment: Proxy reconstructions are difficult and often have major errors. Also, the surface temperature records by NOAA and NASA-GISS have unknown errors introduced by those entrusted for their safekeeping.]
The ‘Religiofication’ of Climate Change
By Scott Sturman, American Thinker, Apr 1, 2022
[SEPP Comment: Instead of Eric Hoffer’s term of ‘Religiofication’ one can call it ideological zealotry.]
A new assessment of extreme weather trends: natural disasters
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Mar 30, 2022
Energy and Environmental Review: March 28, 2022
By John Droz, Master Resource, Mar 28, 2022
After Paris!
UAE Energy Minister: Stop Vilifying And Then Venerating Oil Producers
By Tsvetana Paraskova, Oil Price.com, Mar 28, 2022
• Al-Mazrouei: I think in COP 26 all the producers felt they were uninvited and unwanted but now we are again superheroes.
• The oil and gas industry needs long-term planning and investments every year despite the global push for renewables.
• Al-Mazrouei: politics around sanctioned countries should not interfere with OPEC’s broader mission.
[SEPP Comment: The hypocrisy of western politicians is clear.]
Change in US Administrations
Biden Promised Europe More LNG From US… Forgot to Check With Industry First
By David Middleton, Mar 26, 2022
“Biden promised to deliver something he doesn’t control and was probably going to happen anyway.”
Biden announces largest-ever oil reserve release
By Rachel Frazin and Morgan Chalfant, The Hill, Mar 31, 2022
Canadian official knocks Biden, says asking Iran, Venezuela for oil is ‘absolutely senseless’
Fox News poll shows only 33% of voters agree with getting oil from Iran and Venezuela
By Nikolas Lanum, Fox News, Mar 25, 2022
[Finance Minister Sonya] “Savage said during an appearance on ‘America’s Newsroom.’ ‘And yet we see them going to Venezuela, Iran, Saudi Arabia, for more energy. It’s absolutely senseless. We’re right next door.’
“Savage, who is also the leader of the Alberta Legislative Assembly, added that the thought of asking for oil from those countries was ‘utterly ridiculous’ and asserted North America and many European countries have been ‘funding’ Russia’s war on Ukraine through ‘dysfunctional energy policy.’”
Energy Efficiency under Biden’s DOE: An Update
By Mark Krebs, Master Resource, Mar 30, 2022
Problems in the Orthodoxy
Vexing Truths About Energy
By Ron Clutz, Science Matters, Apr 1, 2022
“The energy transition is not happening. Or not nearly at the pace that everyone believes or wishes. At current rates the ‘transition’ is set to finish in the mid-2600s.”
“[CO2] Emissions are at an All Time High”: UN Admits they are Losing
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Apr 1, 2022
Leading Environmental Group NABU Now Vigorously Opposes Wind Parks In German Forests
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Mar 26, 2022
Seeking a Common Ground
10 Types of Scientific Misconduct
By Enago Academy, Nov 26, 2022
Office of Research Integrity
US Department of Health & Human Services Accessed Mar 31, 2022
Science, Policy, and Evidence
Eric Nuttall: What Canadian policymakers can learn from Europe’s energy woes
It should be obvious: the world needs more, not less, of Canada’s abundant and ethically produced energy
By Eric Nuttall, Financial Post, Canada, Mar 1, 2022
Models v. Observations
Inside Climate News Confuses Models with Reality
By Linnea Lueken, Climate Realism, Mar 31, 2022
Model Issues
‘Earth is transitioning’: Models suggest more megadroughts
By Blaine Friedlander, Cornell Chronical, Mar 24, 2022 [H/t Jim Buell]
Link to paper: Twenty-first century hydroclimate: A continually changing baseline, with more frequent extremes
By Samantha Stevenson, et al. Mar 14, 2022
From significance: “Using large climate model ensembles, we remove the background trend and find that the risk of droughts and pluvials relative to that (changing) baseline is fairly similar to the 20th century risk.”
Measurement Issues — Surface
North America Sees Coldest Winter In Years While NOAA Guesses Temperature Where Thermometers Are Sparse
By Christian Freuer, EIKE, Via No Tricks Zone, Mar 30, 2022
Millions of historical monthly rainfall observations taken in the UK and Ireland rescued by citizen scientists
By Ed Hawkins, et al. Geoscience Data Journal, Royal Meteorological Society, Mar 24, 2022 [H/t WUWT]
Weather Records Shattered–180 Years Ago
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Mar 26, 2022
Measurement Issues — Atmosphere
NASA Science Enables First-of-its-Kind Detection of Reduced Human CO2 Emissions
By Jessica Merzdorf Evans, NASA, Mar 31, 2022 [H/t WUWT]
The Beauty of Atmospheric Water Vapor
By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, Mar 27, 2022
Changing Weather
A Super Jet Stream Will Cross the Pacific this Weekend.
By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, Mar 29, 2022
Where Would a Toxic Release over Ukraine End Up? The Pacific Northwest Would Be In the Downstream Plume
By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, Mar 31, 2022
US Largest Tornado Outbreak
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Mar 31, 2022
March 31, 1962, Florida Tornado
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Mar 31, 2022
March 31, 1973, Tornado And Floods
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Mar 31, 2022
“On March 31, 1973, there were deadly tornadoes in Georgia and 600 miles of the Mississippi River were flooded.”
34 Years of Flawed, Failed & Grossly Misrepresented Global Sea Level Rise Speculation
By Larry Hamlin, WUWT, Mar 29, 2022
Sentinel-6: New International Sea Level Satellite
By Kip Hansen, WUWT, Mar 31, 2022
[SEPP Comment: Good cautions in how sea levels are reported such as: “Sea Level changes measured by satellite and reported in single digit millimeters are the result of computational hubris:”]
Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice
Solar energy explains fast yearly retreat of Antarctica’s sea ice
Press Release by University of Washington, Via WUWT, April 1, 2022
Link to paper: Asymmetry in the seasonal cycle of Antarctic sea ice driven by insolation
By L. A. Roach, et al. Nature Geoscience, Mar 28, 2022
From the abstract: “The mean seasonal cycle of Antarctic sea-ice extent is asymmetric, with the period of ice retreat being approximately two months shorter than the period of ice advance. This feature is largely consistent in observations from year to year and across different satellite products.”
Antarctic Sea Ice Minimum is Nothing Unusual
By David Whitehouse, Net Zero Watch, Mar 31, 2022
Antarctic Heatwaves?
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Mar 28, 2022
[SEPP Comment: Homewood presents data from KNMI, of the Netherlands. “KNMI provides meteorological and seismological products and services that support various government organizations in their public tasks and responsibilities in the field of public order and safety. KNMI is an agency of the Ministry of Infrastructure and Water Management.”
Can’t get enough of that Arctic ice
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Mar 30, 2022
Newfoundland polar bear sighting two days ago: why my novel was set on Fogo Island in March
By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, Mar 31, 2022
Thermodynamics and ice melt flows
By Dan Hughes, Climate Etc. Mar 31, 2022
Lowering Standards
CNN lost half its audience in the last year
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Mar 31, 2022
Heatwave temperature threshold raised in England by Met Office
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Mar 29, 2022
Renewable energy agency head says only ‘radical action’ will accomplish transition
By Zack Budryk, The Hill, Mar 29, 2022
Rowlatt [of BBC] Facing Two Complaints Over Panorama
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Mar 30, 2022
Communicating Better to the Public – Exaggerate, or be Vague?
Climate leadership
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Mar 30, 2022
Climate History Began Eight Years Ago
By Tony Heller, His Blog, March 26, 2022 [H/t Paul Homewood]
Video
Mere security
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Mar 30, 2022
The Economist: “’As we show in this week’s issue, the new era will not end the curse of energy crises and autocrats…. As Western firms stop producing oil because of greenery and costs, the market share of OPEC plus Russia will grow, giving them more clout. And the transition will give rise to new electrostates providing green metals such as copper and lithium, where production will still be dangerously concentrated. Building a cleaner and safer energy system is essential, but it is also an epic, risky and daunting task.’”
Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.
Ice shelf collapses in previously stable East Antarctica
By Seth Borenstein, AP, Mar 25, 2022
“The collapse, captured by satellite images, marked the first time in human history that the frigid region had an ice shelf collapse.” [Boldface added]
[SEPP Comment: It didn’t happen during the warming that ended the last glaciation, about 18,000 years ago? Who know what collapse means? If it is floating, it makes no difference to sea level. But the entire article adds nothing.]
Communicating Better to the Public – Do a Poll?
70% of Australians don’t even want to spend $1 a week on “Net Zero”
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Mar 29, 2022
[SEPP Comment: A poll that asks to a real question.]
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda
Jetting off to save the world
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Mar 30, 2022
[SEPP Comment: These “world leaders” have nothing to offer but propaganda.]
Unpacking the claim that photos from 1950 are Soviet soldiers feeding ‘starving’ polar bears
By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, Mar 28, 2022
[SEPP Comment: Our tanks come in peace?]
Communicating Better to the Public – Protest
SMH: “Disruptive action on climate only preaches to the converted”
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Mar 30, 2022
Expanding the Orthodoxy
The SEC’s Power Grab Attempt: A Powerful Dissent
By Richard W. Fulmer, Master Resource, Mar 25, 2022
SEC Goes Woke On Climate, Abandons Mission to Protect Investors & Markets
By H. Sterling Burnett, Human Events, Mar 22, 2022
“The SEC’s role in these matters should be limited to ensuring ‘truth in advertising,’ a policing function.”
[SEPP Comment: Wind and solar promoters would fail.]
The SEC tries its hand at climate policy
By Rupert Darwall, The Hill, Mar 30, 2022
SEC Promotes Net Zero
By Donn Dears, Power For USA, Mar 29, 2022
The SEC climate rule: 7 things investors need to know
By Greg Iacurci, CNBC, Mar 24, 2022
[SEPP Comment: Everybody is demanding it???]
U.S. Treasury’s “Climate Hub” (on the road to serfdom)
By Robert Bradley Jr., Master Resource, Apr 1, 2022
[SEPP Comment: The US Treasury is a leader of Washington’s War on Reliable Energy?]
The Ukraine Tragedy as Political Opportunism
By Benjamin Zycher, Real Clear Energy, March 28, 2022
“This opportunism has taken two forms. The first is the laughable attempt to blame high gasoline prices on anyone, everyone other than the Biden administration. High gasoline prices represent ‘Putin’s price hike,’ a stance not consistent with the reality that gasoline prices have been rising since December 2020. The oil companies are engaged in ‘price gouging’ and ‘profiteering,’ an argument not consistent with the failure of overseas gasoline producers to drive prices down by exporting ever-more gasoline to the U.S. market, thus capturing those profits for themselves.”
Questioning European Green
Radical plan to end the energy crisis
By John Constable and Andrew Montford, Net Zero Watch, Mar 27, 2022
Link to report: Taking Back Control: Addressing Britain’s Energy Crisis
By John Constable and Andrew Montford, Net Zero Watch, 2022
“Renewables have been ‘a catastrophic error’”
Madness of our worship of wind:
They despoil our glorious countryside, add £6 billion a year to our household bills and are arguably the most inefficient solution to our energy crisis. So why is the Government planning to make it even easier to build them?
By Matt Ridley, Daily Mail, [UK] Mar 27, 2022 [H/t Paul Homewood]
“Four per cent of total primary demand for energy was supplied by wind power
“Wind industry has been fattened on subsidies of more than £6billion a year
“Turbines to be given easier planning process ride than housing or gas drilling.”
Questioning Green Elsewhere
Op-Ed: The Rich Are Taking the Poor to the Cleaners on ‘Green’ Energy in Countries That Can Least Afford It
By Vijay Jayaraj, The Western Journal, Mar 30, 2022
Funding Issues
Statement by NSF Director Sethuraman Panchanathan on the President’s Fiscal Year 2023 budget
Press Release, NSF, Mar 28, 2022
“The President’s budget, which includes $10.5 billion for the U.S. National Science Foundation, details his vision to expand on the historic progress the country has made over the last year and deliver the agenda he laid out in his State of the Union address — to build a better America, reduce the deficit, reduce costs for families, and grow the economy from the bottom up and middle out.” [Boldface added]
“’We are excited about the Fiscal Year 2023 budget request which reflects the confidence that the President is placing in our agency and the critical role that NSF plays to keep our country at the forefront of science, engineering and education research and innovation,’ said NSF Director Sethuraman Panchanathan.”
[SEPP Comment: Is using computer modeling to design an imaginary atmosphere part of science and engineering innovation?]
Minnesota Attorney General claims Ignorance When Pressed on Donor Influence
By William Allison, Energy in Depth, Mar 21, 2022
[SEPP Comment: Another corrupted AG.]
Cap-and-Trade and Carbon Taxes
Turns out carbon taxes aren’t free after al
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Mar 30, 2022
“Part of the green mirage now vanishing due to the Ukraine War is this idea that somehow getting rid of affordable reliable energy would make us wealthier as well as cleaner and more elegant. Including in Canada the government’s claim that as the carbon tax climbs towards its target of $170 per tonne most households would be better off, getting more back than they paid into it.”
“Which reminds us that there is no limit to the incompetence of people in government, not least because unlike people in business they do not pay a high price for delay, error and arrogance.”
Subsidies and Mandates Forever
The ‘Sustainability’ Business: A Gathering of Rent-Seekers
By Andrew Stuttford, National Review, Mar 24, 2022
Why negative subsidies don’t mean lower bills
By Andrew Montford, Net Zero Watch, Mar 30, 2022
EPA and other Regulators on the March
Biden budget proposal includes nearly $2 billion increase for EPA
By Zack Budryk, The Hill, Mar 28, 2022
Statement by EPA Administrator Regan on the President’s Fiscal Year 2023 Budget
The President’s Fiscal Year 2023 budget requests $11.881 billion for the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)’s essential work to protect people from pollution.
Press Release, EPA, Mar 28, 2022
“…and deliver the agenda he laid out in his State of the Union address—to build a better America, reduce the deficit, reduce costs for families, and grow the economy from the bottom up and middle out.” [Boldface added]
EPA revives Obama-era rule removing emergency liability protection for polluters
By Zack Budryk, The Hill, Apr 1, 2022
[SEPP Comment: Using models, EPA conclusions are often ridiculous.]
Energy Issues – Non-US
Gas Rationing? Germany Paying a Horrible Price for Decades of Green Energy Insanity
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Mar 31, 2022
Fossil Fuels v Renewable Energy
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Mar 31, 2022
“The alternative is green hydrogen, which is made by electrolysis. It is usually suggested that surplus wind power is used for this. However, the amounts of hydrogen which could be produced this way would be tiny, as well as extremely costly given the intermittency of the process.
“The bottom line is that we will still need gas, and lots of it, to back up a renewable heavy grid. Indeed, the more renewable capacity we build, the more backup we need.
“And that is only considering electricity. We need lots more gas for heating and industrial use.”
“The simple reality is that we will continue to need fossil fuels for many years to come.”
[SEPP Comment: Technical breakthroughs in keeping fractured wells flowing and in directional drilling were needed to end the claim that the world was about to run out of oil and gas. Technological breakthroughs are needed in storage to make wind and solar generation reliable and affordable. There seems to be none except pumped-hydro storage, which is not suitable for much of the world.]
The EU’s Increasing Reliance on Oil and Gas Imports
By Roger Pielke Jr. The Honest Broker, Mar 31, 2022
Has renewable energy reduced our dependence on natural gas?
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Mar 30, 2022
Link to GB energy use and EU electricity prices: The Energy Current
By Staff, LCP Enact, Accessed April 1, 2022
“In fact, in terms of electricity, the share of gas generation has risen from 29% to 44% between 2015 and 2019, suggesting that intermittent wind and solar power have increased the reliance on gas, rather than reducing it.”
“As for being ‘better off’, we need to take account of the cost of subsidies paid out over the years for renewables already.”
Boris Johnson warned Kwarteng’s renewables drive would precipitate cost crisis and ‘ruin lives’
Press Release, Net Zero Watch, Mar 30, 2022
Ross McKitrick: The 2030 emissions plan: Canada’s gift to Putin
The sad reality is that the federal government does not care what its climate plans will cost people
By Ross McKitrick, Financial Post, Apr 1, 2022
Energy Issues – Australia
Victorian windfarm loses court case on noise, must turn off turbines at night!
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Mar 27, 2022
Energy Issues — US
Only America can ensure global energy security
By Bernard Weinstein, The Hill, Mar 27, 2022
[SEPP Comment: It will take North America, not just the US.]
Waging War on American Energy
By John Horvat II, American Thinker, Mar 31, 2022
Gas Executive’s Attack On Coal Reveals Naïveté
By Gregory Wrightstone, Human Events, Mar 28, 2022
“Perhaps the most fundamental error of the likes of Messrs. Rice and Roberts is their failure to recognize that the most ardent of the climate cult care not a whit about carbon dioxide or the environment. They want control of energy markets and of the world’s people who need them. And no amount of appeasement will change that.
“Such captains of labor and industry would do well to mind the words of German theologian Martin Niemöller, who recalled that, after coming for the socialists, unionists and Jews, the Nazis ‘came for me — and there was no one left to speak for me.’ They will be coming after you and your company in due time, Mr. Rice.”
[SEPP Comment: Proof that bureaucratic fools can be found in private companies as well as governments. Mr. Rice is CEO of EQT Corp, a $3 Billion (revenues 2020) natural gas company that is involved in exploration and pipeline transport, which is based in Pittsburgh. Its CEO should realize that natural gas companies are already being offered for sacrifice to the greens, as coal was. Try building a pipeline from Pennsylvania to New England, which desperately needs more natural gas from Pennsylvania.]
New York Climate Act: Cost Estimate Sleight of Hand
By Roger Caiazza, WUWT, Mar 26, 2022
“The Draft Scoping Plan was written to prove the desired conclusion that the benefits were greater than the costs. In order to make that case both benefits and cost estimates have been perverted. I have shown elsewhere that the benefits are uniformly exaggerated, and the largest benefit is dependent upon an incorrect application of the social cost of carbon.”
Natural Gas: Essential for American’s Cleaner Energy Future
By The Editors, Real Clear Energy, March 25, 2022
Washington’s Control of Energy
Shale Growth Constrained By Supply Chain Bottlenecks
By Tsvetana Paraskova, Oil Price.com, Mar 29, 2022
“’Washington’s immature “finger-pointing” attitude of blaming the oil industry is sickening and tiring. I wish our administration would wake up and start doing some of the right things. We could use some leadership,’ another E&P executive said.”
The Impending Climate “Crisis” in the Gulf of Mexico and Other Biden Frack Ups
By David Middleton, WUWT, Mar 31, 2022
Saving America from planet-threatening fossil fuels
By Paul Driessen, Eurasia Review, Mar 28, 2022
“By sacrificing our economy, environment, living standards, freedoms and security
Presidential candidate Joe Biden repeatedly promised to end fossil fuels in America. There’ll be ‘no more drilling, including offshore,’ he said. ‘No ability for the oil industry to drill. No more pipelines.’”
White House announces Defense Production Act will be invoked for EV battery materials
By Zack Budryk, The Hill, Mar 31, 2022
Oil and Natural Gas – the Future or the Past?
Saudi energy minister says oil alliance OPEC+ will leave politics out of output decisions
By Elliot Smith, CNBC, Mar 29, 2022
Oil Will Still Dominate The U.S. Energy Market In 2050
By Tsvetana Paraskova, Oil Price.com, Mar 24, 2022
Return of King Coal?
India’s coal demand likely to touch 1.5 billion tonnes by 2030
By Staff, The Print, Mar 28, 2022
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind
Wind Power Down To 3% In Past Week
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Mar 29, 2022
“It is abundantly clear that we cannot rely on importing power from Europe in our Net Zero future, as they will be as badly off as us.”
£36 Billion For Solar Panels (That Don’t Work In Winter!)
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Mar 30, 2022
[SEPP Comment: But they can work in the deserts of the US Southwest, except during the winter rainy season.]
Wind Turbines Out West-Part 1
By Kevin Kilty, WUWT, Mar 30, 2022
Wind Projects Rejected in California and Ohio, NBC Reports ‘At Least 40’ Communities Have Rejected Big Solar Since 2021
By Robert Bryce, Real Clear Energy, March 30, 2022
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Other
Environmentalists Shouldn’t Be So Quick to Tank Blue Hydrogen
By Kelsey Grant, Real Clear Energy, March 30, 2022
“One of those solutions was blue hydrogen — that’s natural gas-derived hydrogen paired with carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) technology that keeps emissions from the production process out of our atmosphere.”
Green hydrogen is the means to an end, not an end in itself
The goal should be rapid movement down the cost curve in a competitive industry ..
By Ajay Shankar, Energy World.com, Mar 28, 2022
“Green hydrogen is the means to an end, not an end in itself.”
[SEPP Comment: At least he understands that hydrogen may be a form of energy storage, not a form of energy generation. The global warming disaster is fear mongering.]
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Vehicles
EV race ignores Russian, Chinese mineral speed traps
By Larry Bell, CFACT, Mar 18, 2022
The Lobbyist’s War on Motorists
By Connor Tomlinson, Net Zero Watch, Mar 28, 2022
[SEPP Comment: Close lanes for bicycles! In California it is called a “Road Diet.” Ask those who burnt in their vehicles as they tried to flee the Paradise Fire how well it works.]
Environmental Industry
Who Are The ECIU?
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Mar 27, 2022
“In short, money from billionaires in the US is funding a massive propaganda effort in Europe, designed to radically restructure our society regardless of the wishes of the public.
“I find it ironic that left wing organisations are now happy to collaborate with billionaires, who act against the wishes of the working classes they are supposed to represent.”
Other News that May Be of Interest
Thomas Sowell, Monument to Intelligent Insight
By John Dale Dunn, American Thinker, Mar 30, 2022
Quantum complexity grows linearly for an exponentially long time
By Staff Writers, Berlin, Germany (SPX), Mar 29, 2022
Link to paper: Linear growth of quantum circuit complexity
By Jonas Haferkamp. Nature Physics, Mar 28, 2022
[SEPP Comment: How about linearly with inverse exponentially, called by some as logarithmically?]
BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE
Longer, more intense allergy seasons could result from climate change
Pollen emissions could begin 40 days earlier in the spring
By century’s end, spring pollen emissions could begin 40 days earlier.
Press Release, NSF, Mar 28, 2022
Link to paper: Longer, more intense allergy seasons could result from climate change
Rising temperatures, increased CO2 will drive trees, grasses, weeds to produce more pollen.
By: Jim Lynch, Michigan Engineering News, Mar 16, 2022
[SEPP Comment: NSF deplores the flourishing of nature?]
The sunburnt lands up north: Nanisivik, Baffin Island
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Mar 30, 2022
Tellurian’s Driftwood LNG Begins Construction
By Staff, Business Wire, Mar 28, 2022
“CAUTIONARY INFORMATION ABOUT FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS
“This press release contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of U.S. federal securities laws. The words ‘anticipate,’ ‘assume,’ ‘believe,’ ‘budget,’ ‘estimate,’ ‘expect,’ ‘forecast,’ ‘initial,’ ‘intend,’ ‘may,’ ‘plan,’ ‘potential,’ ‘project,’ ‘proposed,’ ‘should,’ ‘will,’ ‘would,’ and similar expressions are intended to identify forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements herein relate to, among other things, the capacity, timing, and other aspects of the Driftwood LNG project, financing and construction activities relating to Driftwood LNG and the timing of delivery of LNG from the Driftwood LNG project. These statements involve a number of known and unknown risks, which may cause actual results to differ materially from expectations expressed or implied in the forward-looking statements.”
[SEPP Comment: The statement drones on.]
WP: Ukraine War Helps with “Communicating the Need for [Climate] Sacrifice”
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Mar 28, 2022
ARTICLES
No Articles This Week