IBHOF boxing and gambling expert Graham Houston seeks value in tonight’s IBF featherweight title clash between major boxer champion Kiko Martinez and former belt holder Josh Warrington .
Josh Warrington is a fan of bets (2/7 at Betfred) but Kiko Martinez must be seen as the underdog in tonight’s featherweight title fight in Leeds. (If you like Kiko, the chances of him being offered are 3/1.)
First of all, it seems risky to go back to Warrington at high prices. Yes, he is the younger man (31 to 36 years old Kiko) and he will receive rave reviews from fans in his hometown of Leeds. Also, he beat Kiko when they first met, also in Leeds, even though that match was almost five years ago.
However, Warrington suffered a heavy defeat when he was knocked out by Mauricio Lara in the 9th round in February last year.
During Warrington’s rematch with Lara last September, it was hard to say what would have happened if the fight hadn’t been stopped after two rounds, with the Mexican boxer being slashed in the eye during a head-on collision. . Neither of them established any kind of control. But Warrington looked uncomfortable during the six minutes the game dragged on.
One has to wonder if the knockout defeat was suffered against Lara, and the absorption penalty – he barely survived the fourth round – took something away from Warrington.
Kiko, meanwhile, appears to have gone back in time when he knocked out Kid Galahad to win the IBF title last November. It was not a lucky KO. Kiko knows what she’s doing. He was stepping down into the sleek boxer and slowly getting into position to land a blockbuster.
The Galahad-Kiko fight was deemed inappropriate for some quarters, but Kiko proved critics wrong. But will Galahad lose weight due to weight loss? He couldn’t put on weight on the first try, and that’s never a good sign.
What about the first fight between Warrington and Kiko? Any clues there? Although Warrington won the majority decision, it was a real struggle for him. I beat Warrington with a score of 115-113 but note that he couldn’t make it against the tough and tenacious Spaniard. It seemed to me that Warrington appeared more tired than the two men at the last ring.
So here we are, five years later. Kiko looks revived at 36 and we don’t know if Warrington’s KO loss to Lara has had any effect on his confidence and his ability to withstand punches.
Logically, one would expect to see Warrington use the moving, boxing style on Saturday while Kiko moves forward and looks for heavy hits. But I wouldn’t be shocked to see Warrington get to his feet and let go to try to hold Kiko and slow him down.
If this develops into a shootout, it opens up the possibility of the fight going nowhere. Of course, we saw Warrington taken down, but let’s not forget that Kiko was beaten, knocked down and stopped, with four losses on the recorded schedule.
If you want to stand a chance of hitting a fight that doesn’t go exactly 12 innings, Betfred offers 5/4 odds. Fighting to get the distance costs 8/13.
Many will feel that Kiko’s, perhaps only, path to victory is through a goal (given at 10/3). Warrington on points is considered the most likely outcome (4/5), but if you think the Leeds Warriors might be forced to stop, you might like Social boxing rate of price increase 7/2. Kiko on point has a hefty price tag of January 20, so it’s clearly considered the least likely outcome.
The “Happy” bet includes no fighter to be knocked down at 7/4.
This is really a “anything can happen” fight. If you’re struggling to decide where to put your money, joining the fight not to go too far might be the best way to go.
With the bets fully loaded this weekend, it’s quite a task to go through everything to find value. One line that caught my attention, however, was Louis Greene 7/4 against Harry Scarff in their British welterweight title match on Sky Sports at Wembley Arena.
Greene actually opened the favourite but bettors preferred Scarff with lower odds and flipped lines. Scarff is a clumsy Southpaw that can give anyone a rough night but I think Greene has that in place to win with pressure and readiness.
It’s worth noting that Scarff boxed at 160 and 154 pounds and now he’s at a welder. While he looked pretty good on the scales at Friday’s weigh-in, I’m not sure how Scarff would fit in the 147-pound weight class. We know that Greene will do her best to bring the heat back. It’s a really interesting clash of styles and maybe the judges will prefer Greene’s serious aggression to Scarff’s cute counter-punch. I’m seeing some value in Greene at a lower price point.
Main image: Mark Robinson / Matchroom Boxing.
