IBHOF’s boxing and card expert Graham Houston looks for value in this weekend’s world championship showdown featuring Gervonta Davis vs Rolando Romero and Erislandy Lara vs Spike O’ Sullivan.
On a relatively quiet Saturday night for boxing, the biggest bout to date saw Gervonta “Tank” Davis defend his lightweight title.against Rolando Romero at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn.
Tanks are a big favorite in the clash of undefeated boxers, both with KO-fist reputations. He’s 1/8 (-800) at Betfred. If you feel like taking a chance with a somewhat crude but dangerous challenger, “Rolly” Romero costs 5/1 (+500).
Don’t want to bid high on the Tank but not sure that Romero has what it takes to upset the odds? Take a look at what is being offered in the proposed market.
Out of all the different props available in the betting industry, “6.5+ rounds” (essentially an even money bet) might be the way to go.
While Tanks have solid power, he doesn’t always get his opponents out of there early. Three of his last four games have come a long way. There was a round 12 make up match with a lackluster Yuriorkis Gamboa, a 11th round KO against Mario Barrios and a 12th round goal at full range against Isaac Cruz. If Tank feels danger he can choose to box carefully in the early rounds.
In fact, Davis’ 133¾lbs is his lightest since his October 2020 Leo Santa Cruz KO win and may suggest that he’s more planned on boxing and moving than staying in the bag. with Romero.
I see the value in playing the battle to get to the second half of the seventh round at evens.
This must be a fun fight, no matter how long it lasts. There can be little doubt that Romero is really “up” for the fight. He seemed confident to the point of complacency. Tank is the more talented one, with superior hand speed. His boxing skills are perhaps a bit underrated.
We don’t know what level Romero can reach. After all, he remains undefeated, although his unanimous decision to win over Jackson Marinez remains questionable. In theory, Romero looks a bit underpowered, but I don’t think he’s going to come out easily, and Tank’s south knockdown might not be a factor, as Romero handled Anthony with ease. Yigit was unruly in his last match.
Of course, the danger in betting “overkill” when you have two heavyweights in the ring, each capable of injuring the other, is that lightning can strike at any moment, but I think this one will go at least six-and-a-half rounds.
What about other bets?
“Distance – No” is the high fare at 2/11 (-550). Too tall for me. Sometimes, wars that seem certain to end soon but end updistance. (For example, see Yoelvis Gomes vs Jorge Cota and Alen Babic vs Adam Balski last weekend.)
I don’t like “Davis on round 7-12”, ratio 2/1 (+200). Davis by decision or technical decision at 11/2 (+550) was a long bet but strange things happened.
Erislandy Lara defended his WBA middleweight title against Spike O’Sullivan (pictured below, right) on Tank vs. Rolly and this is a contest I’ve never seen before. I guess O’Sullivan is being rewarded for his effort against Jaime Munguia two years ago, when he surprised a lot of people by making it to round 11. Lara was last seen blowing away the invincible Thomas LaManna in the first round. We know that O’Sullivan will join the fight with Lara and try to bully him and bring him down to the body. Lara, the Cuban southern sniper with the long-range skills to defeat Spike.
These are old warriors. Lara is 39 years old, O’Sullivan is 37 years old. I wonder if we’ll see Lara put her feet up and try to hurt Colorful Irish warriors. We think of Lara as a fighter who prioritizes safety but he can hurt opponents when his mood is up. He has actually taken down two of his last three opponents.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see Lara dive and tee off on O’Sullivan and possibly knock him out late in teamfights. However, the Lara KO/TKO proposition is priced quite high at 4/9 (-225).
If you think the fight plays out like Lara’s win over serious but limited Greg Vendetti, Lara’s proposal to decide at around 5/9 (+180) can be appealed. But, who knows what we’ll see from Lara? (Or from O’Sullivan, go there.)
I think “Above 7.5 rounds” at 5/6 (-120) looks promising. Spike will give his all and never give up.
Main image: Bitter rivals Davis (left) and Romero lock horns tonight in Brooklyn (Image: Amanda Westcott / Showtime). Secondary image: Cuban stylist Lara (left) meets Irish boxer O’Sullivan in the main supporting contest (Image: Amanda Westcott / Showtime).
