By Paul Homewood
h/t Paul Kolk
The usual threat from the BBC:
Researchers have created a detailed “future flood map” of England – simulating the impact of flooding caused by climate change.
It has revealed that the annual damage caused by floods could increase by more than a fifth of present levels over the next century.
That could be reduced if commitments to reduce global carbon emissions are met.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-64866058
While going back to the real world, flood experts actually analyzed historical flood trends and found that the percentage of the population at risk has actually decreased since 1870 in the UK:
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-04253-1
The same study concludes that normalized economic damage has fallen sharply since the 1950s across Europe, as has the number of people affected in the UK:
And a 2014 study by Stevens et al. found no long-term flood trends in the UK, after subsidies were made for new home construction on floodplains; There was indeed a marked decline in the incidence of the most severe floods:
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/02626667.2014.950581
But the BBC prefers artificial computer simulations!
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