By Vijay Jayaraj
Since the signing of the Paris climate accord, Vietnam has shown an interest in reducing its dependence on fossil fuels, in recent years introducing a series of measures to cut consumption.
However, in what is seen as a major turning point, the Vietnamese government announced last month that it will increase coal imports over the next 13 years.
Criticisms of fossil fuels, including most of the mainstream media, do not match the energy realities of the world. They are always early in the celebrations of emission reduction promises by developing countries like Vietnam only to see commitments deliver on the need to meet growing energy demand with coal, oil and gas. nature. Even advanced economies like Germany and the UK have abandoned – or suspended – grandiose plans for “carbon-free” utopias to combat social unrest or economic collapse. .
In a newly drafted strategy to develop the coal industry, Ministry of Industry and Trade says it will increase its annual coal imports to 83 million tonnes between 2025-35.
The decision is a marked departure from the ambitious emissions reduction plans the country seems to want to implement, thus dealing another blow to the international campaign against fossil fuels.
Vietnam’s coal consumption has grown rapidly over the past decade largely for power generation – from 27.8 million tonnes in 2011 to 38.77 million tonnes in 2015 and 53.52 million tonnes in 2021. coal is expected to peak at 125-127 million tons by 2030, mainly due to growing demand in power generation and in the cement, metallurgy and chemical industries.
For countries like Vietnam, there is no choice but to increase fossil fuel consumption in the coming decades. Coal, oil and gas together represent the most affordable, reliable and abundant source of energy. In fact, most of the world’s primary energy comes from these fuels.
Climate alerters’ preferred technologies – wind and solar – cannot meet the energy needs of large populations. What they produce less electricity is intermittent and expensive. Therefore, developing countries cannot reduce fossil fuel consumption without significant compromises on the reliability of electricity and economic growth. The consequences of energy shortages due to an anti-fossil fuel stance are even greater in developing countries, where poverty is still rampant.
Coal consumption is strongly correlated with Vietnam’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate. Consumption doubled between versions 2011-21 with a steady increase in growth rate in the same time period.
While correlation does not necessarily mean causation, we do have observations that worldwide GDP growth is driven by the energy sector’s growing dependence on fossil fuels. Vietnam recognizes this and knows that only coal can sustain the expected growth in the future.
According to the World Bank’s most recent economic assessment, “Vietnam’s GDP growth is projected to accelerate from an estimated 2.6% in 2021 to 7.5 percent by 2022. Vietnam, the Philippines and Indonesia are forecast to be the fastest growing economies in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).
If the projected growth rate becomes a reality, Vietnam will need to continue to use fossil fuels without restrictions. In fact, being a top performing economy in ASEAN is a feat that cannot be achieved unless fossil fuels are used.
The case of Vietnam is just one of many stories emerging around the world. Russia’s gas shortage caused many European countries to turn back to coal. The UK leadership said it would soon end the ban on natural gas extraction. Both China and India announced new increases in coal production. Many countries in South America and Africa are expected to start producing oil and gas from new fields in the coming years.
Worldwide, the use of fossil fuels is not increasing.
This comment is the first published at Real clear energyOctober 17, 2022 and can be accessed here.
Vijay Jayaraj is a Research Associate at CO2 Alliance, Arlington, VA. He holds a master‘holds a degree in environmental science from the University of East Anglia, UK and resides in India.
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