Via Geoff Schwartz
FOX Sports NFL Analyst
Follow the trend of making money. That’s exactly the kind of weekend it’ll be in USFL.
We made money later Mangosteenfade away Panthers and passed some points, so I’m back on that winning road for this weekend.
We all know that in betting, the name of the game is taking risks. Well, I’m pretty excited about what has brought me success this USFL season, which is sticking to trends and using common sense. Hopefully that reduces the overall risk in our bets this week.
How to say go? Keep dancing with the people who brought you to where you are. It’s correct?
On that note, let’s dive into my best bets for Week 7 of the USFL, with all odds through FOX Bet.
Birmingham Stallions (6-0) vs. Pittsburgh Maulers (1-5), 2 p.m. Sunday ET, FOX
Repeat after me. Betting on Stallions is no problem. Betting on Stallions is no problem. The fishing…
You get the picture.
The Stallions are winning straight 6-0 and 6-0 against spread. They were a wheelchair on the road without anything standing in their way.
Stallions ranked second in the league in terms of attack and defense expectations added (EPA). They are on a year-over-year revenue margin, second best in the league. Birmingham also came in first for sacks and third for the most important situation for sustained success – third offense.
On the other side are the Pittsburgh Maulers 1-5 – a team that ranks last in the league in terms of offensive ability and efficiency. They scored just 76 points in six games and were also the last team in the league in yards per pass. They also rank last in yards per dash. Not great, Bob.
The Maulers are slightly better on defense, placing fifth out of eight confederate teams in the defensive EPA. They rank the middle of the pack according to the metric and the number of points allowed. However, they continued to lose and have lost three games by double digits. Look for that trend to continue this weekend.
This will be bad. Give me the thorn bridges.
PICK: Stallions (-12.5 at FOX Bet) for more than 12.5 points
New Orleans Breakers (4-2) vs. Michigan Panthers (1-5), 9 p.m. ET Saturday, FS1
Read it again with me. Fade Panthers head coach Jeff Fisher. Fade Panthers head coach Jeff Fisher.
Really, it’s as simple as that.
The Fisher’s Panthers team is 1-5 this season. And back to his final weeks as the coach of RamsFish’s record is 2-11-2 on the spread.
His team is terrible at attacking; they registered in seventh place in the EPA. They also lead the league in giveaways. Honestly, it’s really hard to find anything positive to say about this team’s offense.
they are trivial better on defense, as they only allow 17.5 points per game. They also came in third in projected points added.
On the other hand, the Breakers top the league in terms of defensive efficiency and only allow 16.85 points per game, which is the best in the USFL. The Panthers’ seventh-ranked scoring behavior won’t score too many points in this game.
The Breakers are third in the league for fouls, boast the best passing in the league and they have the best third foul.
Bottom line: Panthers attack badly and defend slightly better. This is not a good recipe for cooking a win against this all-out Breakers team.
Here is another gambling game for you. Teams with five or more points are 6-3 by the odds in the first six weeks of this season.
Simply put, the Breakers win big!
PICK: Breakers (-5.5 at FOX Bets) to win more than 5.5 points
New Jersey Generals (5-1) vs. Tampa Vịnh Bay Bandits (3-3), 12 p.m. ET Saturday, US
After a weekend where every game has passed, bookies have raised the total this weekend. While Unders will reappear in Week 7, I don’t see that happening in this game.
The Generals continue to lead the league in offensive efficiency, while Tampa Bay is fifth. Heroes don’t allow multiple points. However, their 7th ranked defense is less effective.
I would say it’s a mystery why the Generals don’t allow extra points. They are only required to have five legs and are five times behind in the tournament. Team no‘also doesn’t allow a ton of rulers, so it’s hard to explain why the effective number is different from the raw stats. Either way, Tai has hit four of their six games, so I’ll bet that trend will continue.
Bandits are only slightly better on defense; Their EPA ranks near the bottom, in sixth place. Unlike the raw stats of Heroes, Bandits allow points and metrics as their effectiveness rating indicates. They are sixth in defensive points per game, only forced to change three times and have seven eliminations. These are not good yardsticks against this New Jersey assault.
I see both of these teams scoring in groups, so I like Tai.
PICK: More than 42.5 points scored by both teams combined
Geoff Schwartz played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started playing in the right place for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was the second team on the All-Pac-12 selection team in his senior year. He is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.
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