The $1.5 million Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks (G1) dates back to 1875 and boasts an impressive list of winners. The 150th running of the 1/8 mile race is scheduled for May 3 at Churchill Downswhere a group of insightful and talented 3-year-olds will battle for a historic victory.
Handicappers looking to pick the 2024 Kentucky Oaks winner should review the past 20 years of Kentucky Oaks history before placing a bet. Doing so will reveal some prominent trends that can help identify key competitors.
Here are eight trends to keep in mind when handicapping the Kentucky Oaks:
Prioritize fillings with early speed
It pays to bring early speed to the Kentucky Oaks. Nine of the past 20 Kentucky Oaks winners are racing in first or second place after the opening half-mile and 14 of the past 20 winners have raced within 3 1/2 lengths of the leader early.
Truly profound winners are uncommon in the Kentucky Oaks. Secret oath rally from midfield in 2022, but only in the last 20 years Abel Tasman (2017), Princess of Sylmar (two thousand and thirteen), Blind luck (2010), and lemon forever (2006) rallied from behind or near the rear to gain the upper hand.
One reason may be the typically modest pace of the Kentucky Oaks. A really fast pace took place in 2004, but since then, the fastest half-mile fraction is: 46.24 and the fastest time for 3/4 mile is 1:11.25—both modest distances according to level 1 standards.
Pletcher, Cox formidable coach
Trainers Todd Pletcher and Brad Cox have enjoyed much success in recent renewals of the Kentucky Oaks. Pletcher scored four Oaks wins with the help of Ashado, Rags to Riches, Princess of Sylmar and Malathaat while Cox won twice with Single girl And Shedaresthedevil .
Even if Pletcher and Cox don’t win the Oaks, they’re still likely to get the fillies right in everything. Pletcher won the Oaks runner-up and Gambling Girl Nest in 2023 and 2022, while Cox finished third and fourth with Alys’s look And Wet paint in 2023.
Fair Grounds is the best place to prepare
Racetracks & Slots at Fair Grounds has been an important proving ground for future Kentucky Oaks winners. Exactly half of the past 20 Kentucky Oaks winners raced at Fair Grounds during the winter of their 3-year-old seasons. That includes six runners since 2012 who have competed in the grade 2 Rachel Alexandra Stakes and eight runners since 2004 who have competed in the grade 2 Fair Grounds Oaks.
Rachel Alexandra’s recent record is particularly impressive: quite mischievous (2023), Queen Serengeti (2019), Monomoy Girl (2018) and Untouchable (2014) won both the Rachel Alexandra and the Kentucky Oaks, while Lovely Marie (2015) et Believe you can (2012) defeated Rachel Alexandra to win the Kentucky Oaks.
Horse escape failure should not be underestimated
You might think that drivers who have flashy wins have the best record of success in the Kentucky Oaks, but truth be told they have no advantage over drivers who lost in the final prep race. . Over the past 20 years, 10 Kentucky Oaks winners have won and 10 have lost, so winning overall is not a prerequisite for success in the Kentucky Oaks.
Favorites work fine, but so do double-digit long shots
The favorites have a high success rate in the Kentucky Oaks. Since 2004, they have gone 7-for-20 (35%), with Ashado, Rags to Riches, Proud Spell, Rachel Alexandra, Blind Luck, Untapable and Malathaat delivering for favourites.
But long shots also work well in the Kentucky Oaks. In just the past dozen years, we’ve seen Believe You Can, Princess of Sylmar, Serengeti Empress, Shedaresthedevil and Pretty Mischievous deliver double-digit wins. Throw in a 47-1 loss to Lemons Forever in 2006, and long-term winners are almost as common as favorite winners.
It’s worth noting that 23 of the past 60 Kentucky Oaks trio finishers (38.3%) started at double-digit odds. Even if you play a favorite at the top, looking for direct long shots to finish second or third is a sound strategy.
The winner of the bet has the advantage
When looking for head-to-head long-term matches, it’s best to avoid those who haven’t had success against the holding company. The last Kentucky Oaks winner who had not previously won a stakes race was Lemons Forever in 2006, and since then, 15 of the 17 Kentucky Oaks winners have entered with graded stakes winnings over the decade. their race record. If you’re going to make a long bet, choose one that has the winnings credited to her credit.
Lesson 10 and above are favorable
Fillies placed in wide post positions have performed well in the Kentucky Oaks. Since 2004, 20 of the 60 fillies to finish in the Kentucky Oaks trifecta (33%) started 10th or wider, including 2023 winner Pretty Mischievous, who edged out the position 14th.
This is quite a remarkable stat because the Kentucky Oaks are not always fully attended. On three occasions since 2004, fewer than 10 runners have started in the Kentucky Oaks, meaning no runner has finished 10th or wider.
In other words, since 2004, 20 of 70 fillies (29%) who started on post 10 or better have finished in the Kentucky Oaks trifecta, compared with 40 of 176 fillies (23%) who broke from lesson 1-9.
Lessons 1 and 2 are harmful
Not surprisingly given the data point above, post positions 1 and 2 are slightly disadvantaged in the Kentucky Oaks. While Secret Oath and Ashado took wins from the track, they are the only two in the last 20 years to have pulled off the Kentucky Oaks trifecta from post 1. And in the same time frame, post 2 has produced just four times finished in the top three.
Conclude
Last year, our historical analysis pegged Pretty Mischievous as the most likely winner of the 2024 Kentucky Oaks, and historical bettors landed a $22.74 payout on the bet $2 as Pretty Mischievous fights to win by a neck.
While waiting for the next position draw, history is quite decisive in sorting out this year’s Oaks candidates. Tarifa , whose 3-for-3 record this season includes wins in the Rachel Alexandra Stakes and Fair Grounds Oaks, looks formidable for two-time Kentucky Oaks-winning trainer Brad Cox. She has shown tactical speed in all three of her starts this year, and as long as she keeps the outside position there is nothing not to like about Tarifa from a historical standpoint.
Leslie’s Rose is another reasonable contender. Coming from the home of Todd Pletcher, Leslie’s Rose compiled a 3-for-4 lifetime record, highlighted by a three-length victory in the Ashland Stakes (G1) at Keeneland. She hasn’t raced at Fair Grounds during the winter, but Leslie’s Rose offers outstanding tack speed and is a pretty solid match for a Kentucky Oaks winner.
What about telephoto shots? Our beautiful woman has yet to win a stakes, but she finished just three-quarters of a length behind Tarifa when she finished second in the Fair Grounds Oaks. Our Pretty Lady set the pace in the Fair Grounds Oaks, just as she did when wiring the 1/16-mile allowance at Fair Grounds twice back-to-back, so we know she has tactical speed to make a smooth ride in Kentucky Oaks.
Overall, Our Pretty Woman fits many of the historical trends noted above. The fact that she beat Tarifa last time out suggests Our Pretty Woman is an attractive long-term candidate for Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen, a two-time Kentucky Oaks winner.
Good luck with your handicap and enjoy the racing!
