US will shut down 14.9 GW of coal-fired and add 46.1 GW of utility-scale solar by 2022 – Up with that?
David Middleton’s “You Can’t Fix Stupid” Guest
JANUARY 11, 2022
Coal will make up 85% of US power generation capacity retired by 2022Operators planned for 14.9 gigawatts (GW) of generating capacity to retire in the U.S. in 2022, according to our latest information generator inventory. The majority of scheduled retirees are coal-fired power plants (85%), followed by natural gas (8%) and nuclear (5%).
Coal. After significant shutdowns of US coal-fired generation capacity between 2015 and 2020, averaging 11.0 GW a year, coal capacity decommissioning rates drop to 4.6 GW in 2021. However, we expect coal-fired generator outages to pick up again this year; 12.6 GW of coal capacity is expected to be decommissioned in 2022, or 6% of coal-fired power generation capacity operating by the end of 2021.
Most of the plants that make up the US coal fleet in operation are built in the 1970s and 1980s. U.S. coal plants will shut down as coal fleets age, and as coal-fired power plants face increasing competition from natural gas and renewables.
The largest coal power plant scheduled to be decommissioned in 2022 is the 1,305 megawatt (MW) William H. Zimmer (MW) plant in Ohio. Morgantown Power Station in Maryland plans to decommission two coal-fired units (1,205 MW combined) in June, followed by two of the plant’s six smaller oil-fired units in September.
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JANUARY 10, 2022
Solar will account for nearly half of US new generation capacity by 2022By 2022, we expect 46.1 gigawatts (GW) of new utility-scale generating capacity to be added to the US grid, according to Monthly preliminary generator inventory. Nearly half of the additional capacity expected by 2022 is solar, followed by natural gas at 21% and wind at 17%.
Power plant developers and owners report additional plans to us in annual and monthly generator survey. In the annual survey, we ask respondents to provide expected online dates for generators that will be online in the next five years. Monthly survey that monitors the status of online generators based on reported business days.
Solar system. We expect US utility-scale solar generation capacity to grow by 21.5 GW by 2022. This planned new capacity will surpass the 15.5 GW of additional solar capacity. of last year, an estimate based on reported additions through October (8.7 GW) and expected additions at the end of the two months of 2021 (6.9 GW). Most of the projected solar additions in 2022 will be in Texas (6.1 GW, or 28% of the national total), followed by California (4.0 GW).
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Not all power generation is created equal. No power plant can continuously operate at 100% of its nameplate capacity. All power plants require maintenance. Theoretical power factor is the percentage of generating capacity that the power plant can supply at 100% utilization. The performance factor is driven by utilization rate. Nuclear power plants in general have a theoretical capacity factor of 95% and a utilization efficiency close to 100%. Therefore, their realized power factor is typically >90%. Solar and wind power plants also reach nearly 100% capacity; however they have very low theoretical power factor because they depend on time of day and weather.
The theoretical capacity factor of coal-fired power plants is about 85%. The net capacity factor is variable and tied to the price of natural gas. The higher the price of natural gas, the greater the efficiency of coal-fired power plants.
The EIA forecasts that natural prices will average around $4/mmBTU in 2022.
The average capacity factor of coal-fired power plants is likely to be in the 55-60% range by 2022.
Utility-scale solar power plants achieve an average capacity factor of 25%.
The theoretical output of 14.9 GW of coal-fired power capacity is greater than the average achieved power factor of solar power. And the actual output of solar power is generally the maximum that can be achieved.
| No. of capacity | GW | GWh/year | |
| Coal | 85% | 14.9 | 110,945 |
| Solar PV | 25% | 46.1 | 99,747 |
Remember that coal-fired power plants can run 24/7/365…even at night and on cloudy days. Even using the capacity factors expected at a natural gas price of $4/mmBTU, the 14.9 GW coal-fired capacity soon to be phased out will generate 71-78% of electricity as 46, 1 GW of solar power.
| No. of capacity | GW | GWh/year | ||
| Coal | 60% | 14.9 | 78,314 | 78% |
| Solar PV | 25% | 46.1 | 100,959 | |
| No. of capacity | GW | GWh/year | ||
| Coal | 55% | 14.9 | 71,788 | 71% |
| Solar PV | 25% | 46.1 | 100,959 |
Worse yet, solar tends to provide maximum output when demand is at its lowest. The Southwest region includes Arizona, southern Nevada, and much of New Mexico. Thermal and nuclear power plants provide about two-thirds of the very stable base load. Natural gas provides most of the rest of the baseline and rises during peak demand hours (8-9am and 7-9pm). Solar power surges when demand decreases from mid-morning to mid-afternoon.
When you replace your reliable 24/7/365 base load with:
You get one “duck curve“…
The moral of the story…
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