US intelligence officials informed senior military and government officials on Wednesday that Yevgeny Prigozhin, leader of the Wagner Mercenary Corporation, was preparing to take military action against the officials. senior Russian defense officials, according to officials familiar with the matter.
Officials said U.S. spy agencies had indications a few days earlier that Prigozhin was planning something and had worked to refine that document into a complete review.
The information suggests that the United States was aware of impending events in Russia, similar to the intelligence agencies that warned at the end of 2021 that Vladimir V. Putin was planning an invasion of Ukraine.
But unlike the original invasion, when American officials declassified the intelligence and then released it to try to prevent Mr. Putin’s invasion, intelligence agencies have kept quiet about his plans. Mr. Prigozin. American officials felt that if they said anything, Mr. Putin could accuse them of orchestrating a coup. And they clearly have little interest in helping Putin avoid a major and embarrassing rift in his support.
In this case, it is reported that the long-standing feud between Mr. Prigozhin, who started out as “Putin’s chef” in St. Petersburg, and Russian defense officials about to turn into a conflict are seen as both certain and alarming. Mr. Prigozhin is known for his brutality and if he succeeds in toppling officials, he will likely be an unpredictable leader. And the possibility that a major nuclear-armed US adversary could fall into internal turmoil entails a new set of risks.
While it’s unclear exactly when the United States first learned of the plot, intelligence officials conducted briefings on Wednesday with administration and defense officials. On Thursday, as further confirmation of the plot became available, intelligence officials briefed a narrow group of congressional leaders, according to officials familiar with the briefings, who spoke to CNN. sued anonymously because they were not authorized to speak publicly. By Friday night, Mr. Prigozhin had escalated his feud significantly, launching a march in Moscow that the Russian government described as a coup plot. On Saturday, he called his fighters and agreed to flee to Belarus.
CNN previously reported that the United States has informed congressional leaders of their concerns that Prigozhin is preparing to challenge Russia’s military leadership.
For many years, Prigozhin hated Defense Minister Sergei K. Shoigu and General Valery Gerasimov, Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, and the feelings were mutual, US officials said. But officials said earlier this year the war in Ukraine had sparked hostilities, often expressed by Mr. Prigozhin in nasty posts on Telegram, a social media platform.
In recent months, intelligence officials have been monitoring the growing animosity between Prigozhin and the leaders of the Russian Defense Ministry and spent a lot of time analyzing it.
The intelligence agency concluded that it was a clear indication of the internal tensions caused by the war in Ukraine, a product of Russia’s struggle to adequately supply its military.
It was an indication of how badly the fighting was going for both Wagner and the regular army, one official said.
Intelligence reports published as part of the Discord leak also shows that the US has blocked communication debate among senior leaders of the Russian military how to handle Mr. Prigozhin’s constant need for more ammunition.
In interviews before the current crisis, US officials said not only the Wagner forces faced supply shortages but the entire Russian military. Those problems have plagued the Russian military for months, but US officials said earlier this week they became more apparent as Ukraine’s counteroffensive began.
Mr. Putin may also have misled Prigozhin into believing that he can overcome public criticism to act against his military allies. During the battle for the city of Bakhmut, the US government assessed that Putin most likely ordered regular Russian units to reinforce Wagner forces.
After capturing Bakhmut, the Russian Ministry of Defense moved to reduce Wagner’s power. Russia forces all volunteers for its forces to sign a contract with the Ministry of Defense. Tatiana Stanovaya, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said the move kept Wagner out of employment and meant letting the mercenaries return to the battlefield in Ukraine, said Prigozhin. would have to be subordinated to its forces to the Ministry of Defense.
“Putting the Wagner force under Shoigu’s control is ‘impossible’ for Prigozhin,” Stanovaya said.
Many of Prigozhin’s tensions with the military have been exposed to the public. He used interviews and Telegram posts to criticize Shoigu and General Gerasimov, calling them incompetent and accusing them of misleading Putin about the progress of the war with Ukraine.
US officials acknowledge that there is a theatrical element to Prigozhin’s public complaints but it remains helpful to Mr Putin, who himself has privately criticized his military leader for being too passive in the Ukraine war.
Still, U.S. officials concluded that Prigozhin’s public statements were not controlled by Putin. Officials said earlier this year his fight with the Defense Ministry was real, not political, fueled by the massive casualties Russia suffered in Bakhmut.
Mr. Prigozhin’s critique goes beyond the necessary supply argument. He accused the military leadership of corruption and incompetence. For their part, some military leaders envy his influence over Mr. Putin, US officials said earlier this year.
But only in recent days have intelligence officials received initial warnings that Prigozhin might act.
Officials say intelligence agencies do not yet know what the outcome of Prigozhin’s actions might be, but they are immediately concerned about how it could affect nuclear arms control by the United States. Russia. President Biden, speaking in October, spoke of the dangers Mr. Putin would pose if he felt cornered and said the United States was seeking “get off the ramp” for Mr. Putin.
Since Mr. Prigozhin’s action on Friday, US officials have been in lockdown, saying little publicly about his intentions or what they know about events on the ground. Officials were on alert, both because events were moving quickly and because they didn’t want to give Putin any reason to blame the West for Prigozhin’s actions. But some officials said they fully expected that Mr. Putin would eventually say the uprising was the result of a foreign conspiracy.
Mr. Prigozhin is being prosecuted in the United States for his role in attempting to influence the 2016 presidential election in favor of Donald J. Trump.
