Here are five critical tests that Ukraine and its global partners and allies must deal with as Russian President Vladimir Putin’s criminal war reaches its most decisive stage.
Some are short-term, and others have generational consequences. What unites them is that the whole year is needed to turn Putin’s threat of murderous dictatorship into a historic opportunity for the civilized world to shape a better future.
- Can Ukraine’s friends, especially in Europe and North America, not only maintain but strengthen their solidarity and unity in the face of Putin’s growing brutality? With global energy prices and inflation increasedCan Ukraine’s friends avoid the inevitable fatigue among democracies and remain focused on what appears to be a distant threat?
- Will Ukraine’s arms suppliers continue to provide Kyiv with greater military capabilities, despite Moscow’s escalating threats, including the possible use of battlefield nuclear weapons. With this advanced weapon, Can the Ukrainian army not only keep, but also take it back? Their sovereign territory is occupied by the Russian army.
- Can NATO surpass Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan? Opposition – and potentially others – for the impending applications to join the allies of Finland and Sweden? Could it give Finland and Sweden protection status until they are full members, and speed up that process? Can the US Senate ratify Finland and Sweden’s NATO memberships before the summer break, creating an important impetus?
- Can Ukraine and its friends do more to establish globally the correct narrative of the fact that Putin is entirely responsible for this gratuitous and premeditated war? Could they more effectively reach the Russian people so that they would better understand that Putin waged a war on their behalf that was not in their favor?
- Ultimately, can the United States and its global allies and partners defeat Putin strategically and sufficiently weaken Russia’s military capabilities, so that Moscow cannot continue the Ukraine war or repeat it elsewhere? other places? Can NATO and its global partners strengthen themselves enough that they can more effectively deter this type of threat in the future?
It’s a long list, and it’s just the beginning.
The bottom line is that the unforeseeable resilience, resourcefulness, patriotism and bravery of Ukrainians have given the free world an opportunity not only to save Ukraine, but to reverse it. years of democratic drift and authoritarian rise.
If you want to avoid letting jungle rule replace the rule of law, now is the time to act.
It will be important in the coming years that the transatlantic community embraces Russia and the Russian people as part of President George H. W. Bush’s dream of “A Whole and Free Europe“One should design a way to make that happen. In the meantime, however, the friends of Ukraine, for now, must quell Putin’s historically misguided obsession with restoring some. misconception about”Ancient Rus“through any means necessary.
Last week highlighted the positive momentum towards the end of the year.
Finland and Sweden transition to NATO membershipUK tightening sanctions that cracked Putin’s wall of secrecy around his family and rumored girlfriend; The Russian military seems to have retreat from Ukraine’s second largest city Kharkivand the Ukrainian army has begun launch a counterattack east of the city of Izyum, targeting Russian supply lines to the Donbas region.
Finland and Sweden last week closer to NATO membership applicationswill become official in the coming days.
“Finland must apply to join NATO immediately,” Finnish President Sauli Niinisto and Prime Minister Sanna Marin said in a statement. declare on Thursday it is certain that Finland, with its 810-mile border with Russia, will do so in other steps in the coming days. “Becoming a NATO member will strengthen Finland’s security. As a member of NATO, Finland will strengthen the entire defense alliance.”
On Friday, all of Sweden’s political parties presented a revised assessment of the deteriorating security situation in their region. Six of the eight parties support conclusions in favor of NATO membership after 200 years of neutrality. Swedish Government is expected to make a formal decision on its application to join NATO on Monday.
For the misguided voices still claiming that NATO membership destabilizes instead of ensuring a more peaceful Europe, speak to the officials of these countries, who have witnessed three NATO’s Baltic member is safe while Russia overwhelms Ukraine, a non-NATO member.
Turkish President Erdogan is the NATO leader representing greatest opposition so far is an expansion of Sweden and Finland, building on what Turkey says is a long-standing Swedish haven for Kurdish terrorists. However, Erdogan’s language suggests this is more of a negotiating ploy than an immovable object.
“We are monitoring developments regarding Sweden and Finland, but we are not in a positive mood” Erdogan said. “On this point, we look positively also unlikely.”
Putin’s war not only failed to capture Ukraine, but also spurred global change far beyond Finland and Sweden.
Upon receiving the Atlantic Council’s Distinguished Leadership Award, Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi speak Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has caused “a paradigm shift in geopolitics.”
Draghi added, “It has strengthened the relationship between the European Union and the United States, isolated Moscow, and raised deep questions for China. These changes are still ongoing, but one thing is for sure. : they will definitely stay with us for a long, long time.
“We must continue to support the bravery of the Ukrainian people as they fight for their freedom and the security of all of us. There needs to be peace,” he argued, but added, “The Ukrainians will decide the terms of this peace, no one else. “
Historical threats have been clear since Putin began rallying his troops last year for the February 24 attack. Now, Draghi said, the opportunity is clearer.
“The war in Ukraine has the potential to bring the European Union closer together,” he said. “We must remember the urgency of this moment, the magnitude of the challenge. This is Europe’s hour, and we must seize it. The choices facing the European Union are simple. We can be masters of our own destiny or slaves to the decisions of others.”
What Draghi said makes him optimistic that Europe is not solving this problem alone but is underpinned by the “timeless interconnectedness” of Europe-US relations. “
The test now is whether the current solidarity and motivation of Ukraine’s friends can withstand Putin’s escalating brutality and their tiresome tendencies.
– Frederick Kempe is the President and CEO of the Atlantic Council.
