Tips, Trends, and Historical Tidbits for Picking a Breeders’ Cup Classic Winner

The $6 million Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic is the marquee race for the upcoming World Championships Nov. 5-6 at Del Mar. Since its inception in 1984, the 1 ¼-mile race has ascended to probably the most vital races on the worldwide racing calendar.

Horse racing superstars comparable to Ferdinand, Alysheba, Sunday Silence, Unbridled, A.P. Indy, Cigar, Skip Away, Tiznow, Ghostzapper, Invasor, Curlin, Zenyatta, American Pharoah, and Gun Runner helped cement their legacies with a victory within the Traditional whereas numerous different standouts tried and got here up quick on Breeders’ Cup day.

The Traditional frequently attracts one of the best dust horses from internationally because the anchor to the World Championships. Over the past 20 years (2001 by 2020), the Traditional has delivered a number of dominant performances by highly effective favorites in addition to 5 winners that paid at the very least $20 for a $2 win guess, together with $89 victor Volponi in 2002.

Let’s take a deep dive into the final 20 years of the Traditional to hunt out some traits and suggestions that may be useful when handicapping the 2021 version Nov. 6 at Del Mar.

Constant Excellence

If you’re wanting by the record of contenders for the 2021 Traditional in the hunt for a winner, the one factor you don’t need to see is a string of up-and-down performances. If there may be one lesson to be realized from the final 20 years of this race, it’s that the winner usually is a confirmed elite racehorse, one which’s very quick and constant.

• Twelve of the 20 received their remaining prep races – 14 in the event you depend 2019 winner Vino Rosso, who crossed the end line first within the Jockey Membership Gold Cup however was disqualified and positioned second. Ten of these 12 got here out of a Grade 1 win (11 counting Vino Rosso).
• Eighteen of the final 20 Traditional winners completed first or second of their remaining prep and none ran exterior of the highest three.
• Of the final 20 Traditional winners, 18 have been Grade 1 winners coming into the race (17 in a row coming into this yr) and the opposite two – 43.50-1 winner Volponi (2002) and 14.20-1 winner Pleasantly Good (2003) – had received a Grade 2 race.
• From June of the yr of their Traditional win by their remaining prep race, the final 20 Breeders’ Cup winners received 36 of 62 begins for a 58% win price and completed within the prime three in a outstanding 59 of their 62 mixed begins (95%) throughout the identical timeframe.

That Sounds Logical

Whereas solely 5 of the final 20 editions of the Traditional have been received by favorites, this race shouldn’t be usually received by an outsider, as you might need surmised primarily based on the statistics above in regards to the significance of impeccable credentials main into the Traditional. Certain, you possibly can’t fully rule out an upset, however the final 9 winners went off at single-digit odds and the highest-priced winner within the final six years (Vino Rosso in 2019) returned $11.20 on a $2 win guess.

• As talked about above, solely 5 of the final 20 editions of the Traditional have been received by post-time favorites, starting from 7-10 odds for American Pharoah in 2015 to 2.80-1 for Zenyatta in 2009.
• Nonetheless, 12 of the final 20 Breeders’ Cup Traditional winners prevailed at odds of 5.2-1 or much less and 15 of the final 20 received at 7-1 odds or much less. So 60% of the time from 2001 to 2020, the winner paid $12.40 or much less for a $2 win guess and 75% of the time the winner paid $16 or much less.
• The typical odds for the Breeders’ Cup Traditional winner from 2001 by 2020: 7.6-1 with median win odds of 4.5-1, which quantity to an $11 payout for a $2 win guess.
• Current historical past has been even much less promising for longshot seekers because the final eight winners went off at 6.10-1 odds or much less and 7 of the eight have been received by one of many prime three betting selections.

Let’s Speak Upset Winners

• 5 of the final 20 Traditional winners paid $20 or extra for a $2 win guess: Volponi ($89, 2002), Pleasantly Good ($30.40, 2003), Raven’s Go ($29, 2008), Drosselmeyer ($31.60, 2011), and Fort Larned ($20.80, 2012).
• Wanting nearer on the $20 winners over the previous 20 years, three of the 5 profiled as nearer or nearer/stalker sorts.
• Not surprisingly, the 2 runners who didn’t enter the Traditional as established Grade 1 winners – Volponi in 2002 and Pleasantly Good in 2003 – got here from this group of longshots.
• Solely one of many 5 $20 winners got here out of a Grade/Group 1 win, and that was European invader Raven’s Go who received the Traditional on an artificial predominant monitor after successful his remaining prep race on the grass. One longshot winner (Pleasantly Good, 2003) got here out of a Grade 2 win and the opposite three completed within the prime three however didn’t win their remaining prep.
• The 5 $20 winners didn’t boast practically as sturdy latest type as different winners, combining to win six of 18 begins from June by their remaining prep for a 33% strike price in contrast with 58% for the group as an entire. However they have been persistently very aggressive, having run within the prime three in 16 of 18 begins (89%) throughout this timeframe.
• The profile of a longshot appears to be an off-the-pace sort who may not have many latest wins on the resume however nearly all the time finishes within the prime three.

Fascinating Nuggets

I usually prefer to spend a very good section of those historic blogs taking a look at working fashion, however the Traditional doesn’t appear to favor any fashion specifically over the past 20 editions, so I’ll embody a few of that right here together with a number of different traits I believed have been attention-grabbing.

• Seven horses who most well-liked to race on or close to the lead have received within the final 20 editions of the Traditional with 4 devoted closers successful throughout that span. I labeled three as stalker/press-the-pace sorts coming into the race, 4 as stalkers, and the opposite two I pegged as closers/stalkers. It’s a various group of Breeders’ Cup Traditional winners.
• Alongside these traces, the median place of the Traditional winner has been fourth/fifth (4.5) and about three lengths again after the opening quarter-mile and fourth/fifth and about 3 ¾ lengths again after a half-mile.
• The deep closers skewed the averages solely a bit with the common winner sitting a bit higher than fifth (4.8) and about 4 to 4 ¼ lengths again after the primary quarter-mile and 4 ¼ lengths again on common after a half-mile.
• By early stretch, nevertheless, the winner was by median a half-length in entrance and on common between one-quarter of a size to a half-length in entrance.
• Six of the final 20 Traditional winners have been 3-year-olds taking over older horses, together with 4 of the final seven editions.
• Not one of the final 20 Traditional winners was older than 5. Actually, the Traditional has by no means been received by a horse older than 5 years previous. Zenyatta came the closest when a head short to Blame throughout her 6-year-old season in 2010.
• Sixteen of the 20 made their remaining prep race in both New York or Southern California, with 11 Traditional winners popping out of a New York prep.
• The typical successful Equibase Velocity Determine for the Breeders’ Cup Traditional from 2001 by 2020 was 121 with a median of 120.5. The successful determine ranged from a 113 for Bayern in 2014 to a 130 for Gun Runner in 2017.
• 4 of the final 20 editions of the Traditional have been determined by a neck or much less with three determined by a nostril (Tiznow over Sakhee in 2001; Mucho Macho Man over Will Take Cost in 2013; and Bayern over Toast of New York in 2014).
• Seventeen of the final 20 Traditional winners have been bred in Kentucky with one bred in California, one in Florida, and the opposite in Argentina.

Which 2021 Contenders Match the Profile?

Let’s begin with possible favourite Knicks Go, who’s unbeaten in races round two turns this yr, rides a three-race successful streak into the Traditional, and is a confirmed Grade 1 winner with velocity figures that point out he’s quick sufficient to win. The 2 considerations are that he’s by no means competed in a race longer than 1 1/8 miles and devoted front-runners who want the lead have received solely two of the final 20 editions of the Traditional. He additionally ought to face some early strain with a number of others anticipated who additionally choose to set the tempo. Nonetheless, Knicks Go’s tactical velocity is an asset and Gun Runner led from begin to end in the one earlier version of the Traditional held at Del Mar.

After Knicks Go, I believe you need to look subsequent at a rock-solid group of 3-year-olds in Important High quality, Scorching Rod Charlie and Medina Spirit.

If Knicks Go doesn’t begin as the favourite, I’ve little question the choice the betting public can be drawn to is Essential Quality. Briefly, he’s a tenacious beast of a racehorse who was a champion at 2 and has received eight of 9 profession begins. His lone defeat was a fourth, crushed by a size, within the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve and all he’s achieved since then is win the Belmont Stakes Presented by NYRA Bets, the Jim Dandy Stakes, and the Runhappy Travers Stakes. He’s ultra-consistent with Equibase Velocity Figures of 109-109-109-107-109 in his final 5 races, however there lies the one main concern: Is he quick sufficient? Based mostly on Equibase Velocity Figures, he would wish to enhance, which is all the time a chance within the fall of a 3-year-old’s season. A number of different speed-figure makers have Important High quality proper there together with his competitors, and he’s proved he can win a battle within the stretch.

Hot Rod Charlie has likewise been persistently glorious this yr. He’s crossed the end line first in three of six begins with a second and two thirds. He was disqualified from first and positioned second for inflicting interference within the TVG.com Haskell Stakes, however Scorching Rod Charlie’s effort in that race was terrific. He earned a 113 Equibase Velocity Determine for the Haskell after which received the Grade 1 Pennsylvania Derby by 2 ¼ lengths in his remaining prep for the Breeders’ Cup Traditional, incomes an eye catching 120 Equibase Velocity Determine. The Oxbow colt is in terrific type. He’s on the precise trajectory, quick sufficient to win, and versatile sufficient to run properly from on or off the tempo. He appears to be like like a severe win candidate.

Final yr, Corridor of Fame coach Bob Baffert received the Breeders’ Cup Traditional with front-running Kentucky Derby Offered by Woodford Reserve winner Genuine, so it will be silly to not give sturdy consideration to this yr’s Derby winner Medina Spirit, who shares the identical coach and working fashion. Baffert has received the Traditional 4 occasions within the final seven years and Medina Spirit has been constant in opposition to elite competitors all season, successful 4 of eight begins and by no means ending exterior the highest three. He’s 2-for-2 since June and enters off a dominant, five-length win in opposition to older males within the Grade 1 Awesome Again Stakes. He tied his profession greatest Equibase Velocity Determine within the Superior Once more, matching the 110 he earned for successful the Kentucky Derby. The main concern right here is that Medina Spirit probably should run considerably sooner than he has to win whereas battling to set the tempo with Knicks Go, Scorching Rod Charlie, and Artwork Collector on this area.

Which brings us to … Art Collector. A really good 3-year-old in 2020, he has actually come on this summer time and fall as a 4-year-old in successful the Alydar Stakes, Grade 2 Charles Town Classic, and Grade 1 Woodward Stakes in his final three races, all victories by 1 ½ lengths. He can set or press the tempo and, on paper, he’s quick sufficient to win with a 110-115-120 string of Equibase Velocity Figures in his final three races. Artwork Collector is a confirmed Grade 1 winner popping out of a prep race in New York for a coach in Corridor of Famer Bill Mott who has received the Traditional twice.  The possible area for this Breeders’ Cup Traditional may be very aggressive on the prime as all 5 I’ve talked about so far profile as reputable win candidates. Distance is the one hurdle Artwork Collector should clear to win the $6 million race – he pale late within the Preakness Stakes a yr in the past in his one try going longer than 1 1/8 miles.

For these searching for a possible upset candidate, Max Player may very well be a $20 winner given the energy on the prime. He’s confirmed on the distance having received the Grade 2 Suburban Stakes and Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup, each at 1 ¼ miles, in his final two begins. His 113 Equibase Velocity Figures for these two wins make him aggressive and he’s most likely going to be someplace round 10-1 to 12-1 odds, which is stable worth. For a much bigger longshot, I like Express Train. He’s positioned 4 occasions in Grade 1 races and received the Grade 2 San Diego Handicap on this Del Mar predominant monitor in July. He enters off a third-place end within the Superior Once more Stakes for coach John Shirreffs, who received the Traditional in 2009 with Zenyatta, however Categorical Prepare needs to be coming from properly off the tempo and will get a greater setup than he did within the Superior Once more.

This yr’s Breeders’ Cup Traditional is a troublesome race to investigate. Important High quality is, in my view, the probably winner, however I actually just like the probabilities of Scorching Rod Charlie and Artwork Collector as properly, which implies I’ll be ready to look at the tote board in relation to making my bets. I’m fairly agency on my longshot decide although as I believe Categorical Prepare has a terrific probability to outrun his odds and boost the payouts for bets just like the trifecta and perhaps even exacta. Who is aware of? Perhaps a multiple-horse tempo duel will arrange the race for a deep nearer and Categorical Prepare rolls previous to win in a surprising upset.