Three Heating Up, Three Cooling Down for Feb. 21

This feature provides a capsule look at three horses who are heating up on the Triple Crown trail and three horses whose chances for the Kentucky Derby (G1) are not quite as strong as they were a few weeks ago.

In this fourth edition of this blog for the Run for the Roses, the focus is on the key Derby prep races from the last two weeks of racing as well as a promising 3-year-old generating some buzz.

THREE HEATING UP

1. Sierra Leone 

There were four candidates for three spots on the Heating Up list, but really there was one clear standout in my eyes: Sierra Leone. He bucked recent history by winning the Risen Star Stakes (G2) Feb. 17 at Fair Grounds Race Course & Slots off an extended layoff of 11 weeks, joining only sire Gun Runner   in the last 16 editions of the race to win the Risen Star off a break of seven weeks or longer. Doing some math using the Equibase chart, I have his final three-eighths of a mile in roughly :36.97 and final furlong in :12.23. That is real racehorse time for a 1 1/8-mile race even though it was aided by a leisurely pace and, perhaps, the sloppy (sealed) main track. Given Sierra Leone was at least 10 wide entering the stretch, his final three furlongs very likely is even better than it looks. The dark bay or brown Gun Runner colt was one point off pairing both his career-best Equibase and Beyer Speed Figures with a 98 and a 90, respectively, for his Risen Star victory and should have every chance to improve on seven weeks rest in the $1 million Blue Grass Stakes (G1) April 6 at Keeneland. Add in the fact that his pedigree is a terrific combination of stamina and class and he already has two races at 1 1/8 miles under his belt, and Sierra Leone profiles as a major contender for the Kentucky Derby May 4 at Churchill Downs for four-time Eclipse Award-winning trainer Chad Brown.

2. Stronghold 

My hunch is that I’m a little more optimistic about Stronghold’s chances to make an impact moving forward on the Kentucky Derby trail than others, but he’s never been worse than second in three graded stakes starts and I was impressed by how he finished in winning the $400,000 Sunland Park Derby (G3) Feb. 18. He pressed an honest pace in the 1 1/16-mile race and pulled away to win by 2 1/2 lengths with a final five-sixteenths of a mile in :31.32 and a final sixteenth in :06.63. The bay Ghostzapper   colt lugged out in early stretch but he leveled off nicely under jockey Antonio Fresu and took care of business to earn his first stakes win. It was a quality race after shipping in via van from Southern California for trainer Phil D’Amato, and Stronghold is on a steady rise having improved both his Beyer and Equibase Speed Figures in each of his last four starts to career-bests of 89 and 92, respectively. As with many 3-year-olds stretching out in distance in the spring, I’m a little worried about his ability to thrive at 1 1/4 miles but sire Ghostzapper was proven at the classic distance and dam Spectator , by Jimmy Creed  , was a graded stakes-winning sprinter capable of carrying her speed—she finished second to Midnight Bisou  in the 2018 Santa Anita Oaks (G1). He might be a bit overlooked coming out of the Sunland Derby but Stronghold looks like a promising 3-year-old colt.

3. Tuscan Sky 

Tuscan Sky made a nice splash earlier on the Risen Star Stakes card Feb. 17 at Fair Grounds when he skipped through the slop to a two-length win over Lecomte Stakes (G3) runner-up Nash  in a 1 1/16-mile allowance optional claiming race that was reduced to three starters after four entrants were scratched. What is interesting about Tuscan Sky’s race in comparison with the Risen Star is that they were sort of run opposite. The Risen Star was slow early and fast late while Tuscan Sky’s race was fairly strong through an opening three-quarters of a mile in 1:11.35—he was a head behind Nash at that point—but he did not finish as fast. Overall, Tuscan Sky’s win was judged to be faster than the Risen Star by Equibase (99), Beyer (95), and Brisnet (97) speed figures. His winning Beyer figure was five points higher and Brisnet rating was four points better than Sierra Leone’s Risen Star. Nash is a quality racehorse, but Sierra Leone pretty clearly beat a far better group in the Risen Star that included Lecomte winner Track Phantom  and certainly a much deeper field of 11 opponents compared with two. On this year’s Derby trail, however, there have not been many fast races and Tuscan Sky is undeniably fast. He still needs to prove himself against stakes competition, but it was positive to see him successfully stretch out from a debut win sprinting in January at Aqueduct Racetrack to a two-turn win in February at Fair Grounds. From the first crop of 2019 Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) winner Vino Rosso   out of South Andros, a stakes winner at 1 1/16 miles, Tuscan Sky has the stamina in his pedigree to pair with the talent he has shown to date for Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher.

Also-eligible: It was tough to omit No More Time  from the top three after his 1 1/4-length win in the Sam F. Davis Stakes (G3) Feb. 10 at Tampa Bay Downs. He was compromised by a poor start in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes Jan. 1 in his 3-year-old debut but made amends in the Sam F. Davis and has the look of a promising prospect by a terrific young sire in Not This Time  . My main concern with regard to his chances to be a key player on the Road to the Kentucky Derby is that he has not yet run a particularly fast race. Can he improve with only four starts to date? Absolutely, and he will need to in order to compete with the best 3-year-olds of this crop. … Endlessly  closed from off the pace to win the $100,000 El Camino Real Derby at Golden Gate Fields by 1 1/4 lengths Feb. 10 and earned a guaranteed starting spot in the Preakness Stakes (G1). He recorded a career-best 87 Beyer Speed Figure for his first start on the main track and nearly matched his career-top Equibase Speed Figure with a 101, two points off the 103 he earned for an unplaced finish in the 2023 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (G1T). With four wins in five career starts, including multiple graded stakes victories on grass, the Oscar Performance   colt clearly has elite natural ability. But until he proves he can make the transition to dirt, Endlessly remains more of an intriguing curiosity rather than a bona-fide contender for the Kentucky Derby.

1. Informed Patriot 

With third-place finishes in both the Street Sense Stakes (G3) and Smarty Jones Stakes and six Kentucky Derby qualifying points entering the Feb. 18 Sunland Park Derby, Informed Patriot looked like a logical winner on paper and was sent off as the 8-5 second betting choice in the eight-horse field. He raced a few lengths off the pace in the early stages but faded noticeably in the stretch to finish fifth, beaten by 13 1/4 lengths. I thought he had a chance to take at least an incremental step in terms of improvement at Sunland Park, but the Hard Spun   colt went the opposite direction. The Sunland Derby was Informed Patriot’s sixth start, so we have a pretty good idea of his ceiling with a career-best 92 Equibase Speed Figure and 82 Beyer Speed Figure. He did pick up two additional Kentucky Derby qualifying points, but at this point he’s just not fast enough to beat the best 3-year-olds on the Triple Crown trail.

2. Hall of Fame 

This Gun Runner colt was one of the more ballyhooed 3-year-olds in this crop after dusting the competition in a 10 1/4-length maiden win when stretching out around two turns for the first time Jan. 20 at Fair Grounds. Hall of Fame made his stakes debut Feb. 17 in the Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds, found some traffic trouble in the race, and faded late to finish seventh and 8 3/4 lengths behind winner Sierra Leone. It was his first try on an off track, sealed and sloppy in this case, so that is a fair and logical excuse. Of course, Gun Runner’s progeny, including the aforementioned Sierra Leone, typically thrive on wet surfaces, but all horses are different so perhaps this is a case where we draw a line through the race and give Hall of Fame a second chance against stakes company. The shine has come off Hall of Fame a bit, however, after a dull stakes debut and he has his work cut out for him with zero qualifying points for the Kentucky Derby with less than 11 weeks to the race.

3. Change of Command 

Change of Command entered his stakes debut in the Sam F. Davis Stakes Feb. 10 at Tampa Bay Downs on a two-race winning streak. The Into Mischief   colt won a sprint in December at Gulfstream Park and a 1 1/16-mile allowance optional claiming race there Jan. 5 when dueling for the early lead and then battling gamely in the closing stages to prevail by a neck. Change of Command was prominent early in the Sam F, Davis but faded badly in the stretch and finished 11th, 21 1/2  lengths behind winner No More Time. Hall of Fame trainer Shug McGaughey had taken his time with Change of Command and he was third or better in four straight starts before the Sam. F. Davis, so that was a surprising result for the seven-figure purchase out of the 2022 Keeneland September Yearling Sale. I don’t think we saw the best of Change of Command in the Sam F. Davis, and the Tampa Bay main track can be tricky, so it’s worth giving this 3-year-old a second chance. But in terms of the Kentucky Derby, time is tight for a colt with no qualifying points as of Feb. 22.

Of Note: I placed a fairly significant Kentucky Derby future bet on Knightsbridge , a Nyquist   colt who won his career debut by 10 1/2 lengths for Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott Nov. 4 at Churchill Downs. He was back in training in January on the road back to a race on the Derby trail, but he has not had a published workout since Feb. 5 and looks like he is behind the proverbial eight ball in terms of making his 3-year-old debut in time to have a chance to be a factor on the Kentucky Derby trail.