The world is on the cusp of a five-point climate cut-off – Rise for that?

Essay by Eric Worrall

Is anyone else bored with us getting close but never really getting past all those dangerous tipping points?

Study finds the world is on the verge of five ‘catastrophic’ climate times

Giant ice sheets, ocean currents and permafrost may have passed the point of irreversible change

Damian CarringtonEnvironmental Editor
@dpcarringtonFriday, September 9, 2022 04.00 AEST

The climate crisis has pushed the world to the brink of many “catastrophic” times, according to a major study.

It shows five dangerous tipping points may have been adopted due to the anthropogenic 1.1C global temperature so far.

These include the collapse of the ice cap in Greenlandeventually creating a massive sea level rise, the collapse of a mains current in the North Atlantic, interrupting the rain on which billions of people depend for food, and suddenly melting of carbon-rich permafrost.

At 1.5 degrees Celsius, the current minimum expected increase, four out of five cut-off points turns from likely to likely, the analysis said. Also at 1.5C, there can be an additional five cut-off points, including changes to the vast forests of the north and the loss of almost all the glaciers on the mountain.

In total, the researchers found evidence for 16 tipping points, of which the last six require global heating of at least 2C to be activated, the scientists estimate. The cut-off points will be in effect over time periods that vary from a few years to centuries.

…

Read more: https://www.theguardian.com/enosystem/2022/sep/08/world-on-brink-five-climate-tipping-points-study-finds

Summary of the study;

Global warming in excess of 1.5°C could cause many climate constraints

David I. Armstrong McKay^* https://orcid.org/0000-002-0020-7461 [email protected]
Arie Staal https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5409-1436
Jesse F. Abrams https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0411-8519
Ricarda Winkelmann https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1248-3217
Boris Sakschewski https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7230-9723
Sina Loriani https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6660-960X
Ingo Fetzer https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7335-5679
Sarah E. Cornell https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4367-1296
Johan Rockström
Timothy M. Lenton^* https://orcid.org/0000-002-6725-7498 [email protected]

September 9, 2022

Episode 377, Number 6611

DOI: 10.1126 / science.abn7950

Climate tipping points occur when changes in a part of the climate system become self-perpetuating beyond the threshold of warming, leading to significant impacts on the Earth system. Combining model-based, observational, and paleontological studies, we provide a revised shortlist of global ‘core’ and ‘core’ limiting factors. dynamics” in their regions and temperature ranges. Current global warming at ~1.1°C above pre-industrial temperatures is already in the lower end of some tipping point uncertainty range. Some cut-off points could be triggered in the Paris Agreement in the range of 1.5 to <2°C of global warming, with more likely at 2 to 3°C of projected warming on the current policy trajectory. This strengthens the evidence base for urgent actions to mitigate climate change and develops improved tipping point risk assessment, early warning capabilities, and adaptation strategies.

Read more (with wall fee): https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abn7950

Unfortunately, the research has a paywall, so I can’t tell you the timeframe of these alleged points. It’s not that the prediction date is that important – in my experience, tipping point predictions are usually quietly ignore or deleted when the term expires.