Disturbing finding in California’s billion-dollar Climate Initiative reveals problem with using forests to offset CO2 emissions
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Researchers have found that California’s forest carbon buffer pool, designed to ensure the durability of the state’s multibillion-dollar carbon offsetting program, is severely underfunded. The results show that, within the first 10 years of the offset program, it is estimated that the carbon loss from wildfires has depleted at least 95% of contributions intended for protection from all fire risks for more than 100 years. five. This means that the buffer zone cannot guarantee that recorded forest carbon remains out of the atmosphere for at least 100 years. The results, published in Forest frontiers and global changeillustrates that the program, one of the largest in the world, is likely not to meet its set requirements.
Carbon offsetting programs have become popular action plans to combat the climate crisis. California’s carbon offset program was established to take advantage of the carbon sequestration and storage capacity of trees and applies to approximately 75% of the statewide emission allowance.
The program allows forest owners to earn ‘carbon credits’ for tree conservation. Polluters buy credits so they can emit more CO2 than they are allowed under state law. Each credit represents one ton of CO2. This exchange is supposed to balance emissions to prevent an overall increase in CO2 in the atmosphere.
Buffer zone
To ensure this balance, the carbon sink should store carbon permanently. But trees are only temporary carbon sinks, the corresponding author, Dr Danny Cullenward, explains CarbonPlan:
“CO2 emissions from fossils have permanent consequences, but the carbon stored in trees won’t last forever. Forests face a variety of risks, including drought, disease, and – as recent years in the American West have painfully made clear – wildfires.”
Therefore, the persistence of carbon stored in such temporary storage tanks is important to consider when assessing the effectiveness of climate crisis mitigation strategies.
Because California law requires a storage period of at least 100 years, the California Air Resources Board, the state’s primary climate law enforcement agency, has developed a self-insurance mechanism known as a buffer zone.
“Individual projects linked to the program contribute a portion of the credits they earn into the buffer zone, then ready to absorb any losses as the trees in the participating forests die and release carbon. their return to the atmosphere. So as long as there are credits in the buffer zone, the program is appropriately insured against future risks to forest health,” Cullenward continued.
Cullenward and his colleagues previously studied California’s forest clearing program, and have now looked at buffer zone performance and durability.
They found that the estimated carbon loss from wildfires during the first 10 years of the offset program depleted at least 95% of contributions intended for protection from all fire risks over 100 years. five. Likewise, the potential carbon loss associated with a disease and its impact on a single species is large enough to completely impede the total credits available for all deaths related to disease. diseases and insects for more than 100 years.
“In just 10 years, wildfires have exhausted protective measures designed to last a century. Co-author Dr Oriana Chegwidden, of CarbonPlan, said the program is unlikely to withstand wildfires over the next 90 years, especially given the role the climate crisis plays in exacerbating them. fire hazard.
Wildfires and disease are a threat
The researchers performed a computational analysis (an analysis that assesses the probability of an event and its financial consequences) of the buffer zone performance to estimate the actual carbon loss from the two risks. specific durability: historic bushfires and estimated damage from disease and insects, in this case the sudden death of oak trees affects the tanoak. The study covers the program from its inception, in 2013, to the end of 2021.
Their analysis shows that the buffer zone is severely undercapitalized. This means that the program’s alleged self-insurance does not justify ongoing CO2 pollution from companies on the basis of reductions achieved through forest management programs.
Assuming that no more wildfires or other diseases will affect the forest, the results suggest that carbon reverses from historic wildfires would be nearly depleted and potentially depleted. depleting the forest fire component of the buffer zone and the sudden death of oak trees alone is capable of completely depleting the disease and insect component of the buffer zone.
The future of forest clearing programs
The study reveals a fundamental design problem with California’s forest carbon offset program. The climate crisis is intensifying and increasing risks such as wildfires, disease and drought. From the results, it appears that California’s buffer zone is not prepared to deal with such risks.
“More and more companies and governments are using ‘nature-based’ offsets to market consumer-facing claims. While there are many good reasons to invest in forest health and conservation, forest carbon offsetting does not provide the climate benefits that justify the ongoing fossil CO2 emissions,” said Cullenward. .
CarbonPlan co-author Freya Chay concludes: “The issues we observe here are not unique to the California program and raise greater concerns about the integrity of the integrity claims. long-term of compensation.
JOURNEYS
Forest frontiers and global change
DOI
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