A Patriot missile launcher is seen in Poland in March.
Evan Vucci/AP
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Evan Vucci/AP
A Patriot missile launcher is seen in Poland in March.
Evan Vucci/AP
The United States will send a Patriot surface-to-air missile system to Ukraine to bolster its air defenses, a move that represents one of the most advanced defense systems the United States has provided to date in support of Ukraine since its inception. when Russia invaded last winter.
The announcement is expected on a day when Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is in Washington, DC, on his first trip outside of Ukraine since the war began – a trip made to plead for additional support. added in the wake of Russia’s attack on Ukraine’s critical infrastructure that caused disruption. to provide electricity and water throughout the country as the long, cold winter begins.
“It becomes a real humanitarian issue when you’re trying to deprive an entire nation of electricity, water and everything else,” said Jeffrey Edmonds, a 22-year military veteran who now works as a military veteran. is a Russia analyst at the Research Center. New American security. “I think they see it as a necessary step to help the Ukrainians sustain themselves in the war.”
What is the Patriot missile system?
Patriot arrays are used by the US Army and about a dozen US allies around the world. It was originally designed as an air defense system, and newer variants are used primarily against ballistic missiles.
The United States is expected to send a single Patriot battery to Ukraine, according to a U.S. official familiar with the delivery who spoke to NPR on condition of anonymity because it was not authorized to divulge details prior to release. public announcement.
The system has three main components: a launcher, a control center and a sophisticated radar.
Depending on which missile is used and what the target is, a Patriot battery has a range of about 20 to 100 miles – too small to cover all of Ukraine, which is about 800 miles east to west. and more than 500 miles. From north to south.
“That would do a good job of protecting maybe a single city, like,” said Mark Cancian, a retired Marine colonel and senior adviser at the Center for Strategy and International. Kiev, in the face of some threats. But it doesn’t create a bubble for Ukraine.” Learn.
In total, the value of the batteries and accompanying missiles could be around a billion dollars, Cancian estimates.
Ukrainian soldiers will need weeks, if not months, of training
Early in the conflict, American officials opposed the idea of sending Patriot systems to Ukraine.
Perhaps the biggest obstacle is the question of manpower. About 90 positions are usually assigned to operate a missile battery. And the training required is substantial; Course length ranges from 13 weeks for launch station operator arrive 53 weeks for maintenance roleaccording to the Army Recruitment Document.
Ukrainian troops are expected to be trained in Germany by the Americans. (Hundreds of Ukrainian troops have traveled to Germany each month to train other weapons. Pentagon officials recently announced that they will increase that number early next year.)
Even on a compressed schedule, the training requirements mean that the Patriot system is unlikely to be operational until late winter or early spring, possibly in February or March.
Trying to get the system up and running as soon as possible can backfire, says Cancian: Inefficient performance due to rushed training can hinder system efficiency; in the worst case, the Ukrainians might not be able to stop the Russians from destroying it. That could hurt the political will to send future assistance to Ukraine, he said.
“If the Ukrainians have a year or two to integrate into the system, that’s not a problem. The problem is they don’t have a year or two. They want to do this in a few weeks,” Cancian said.
What role could the Patriot system play in the conflict?
During the nearly 10 months of conflict, Ukraine has proven successful in preventing Russia from gaining air superiority in its airspace — negating Russia’s key intelligence and firepower capabilities.
Under the near-constant Russian onslaught, Ukraine managed to knock out most of the oncoming missiles and drones. However, analysts say the stockpile for the defense systems that Ukraine has relied on so far is running out.
Soviet-era S-300 missile systems are key to Ukraine, but its missiles are difficult to source. The United States has regularly provided air defense support, including more than 1,600 Stinger anti-aircraft missiles and eight ground-based missile defense systems called NASAMS. The US has also provided dozens of mobile rocket launcher called HIMARSalongside a host of other military vehicles and weapons including Javelin anti-tank missiles, helicopters, artillery and drones. But those supplies are also running out.
Recently Russian air strikes and ongoing attack on Ukraine’s critical infrastructure pressured the United States and its allies to do more.
Zelenskyy renewed those calls in recent weeks ahead of Wednesday’s visit to Washington, including a phone call to Biden earlier this month. Last week, the Ukrainian leader asked the G7 for more support; in a later statementThe group said it would place “immediate focus on providing Ukraine with air defense capabilities and systems.”
Kelly Greico, a defense analyst at the Stimson Center, called the announcement “a sign that US officials are seriously concerned” about Ukraine’s air defenses.
A response to a new phase of the war
The Patriot system is one of the most expensive US aid to Ukraine this year.
At $4 million each, the PAC-3 missile that comes with the Patriot is much more expensive than the Stinger or the missile launched by HIMARS. Analysts say they are expensive enough for Ukrainians to use caution. “You can’t just let these things fly away,” Cancian said.
Prior to October, Ukraine’s air defenses were focused on protecting frontline troops in the east and south, along with important government buildings and military sites in Kiev and several regional centers. area.
Now, Ukraine is trying to protect the electricity grid that covers all parts of the country. In other words, there are more places to protect, said Edmonds, Russia analyst at CNAS.
“If you have an Iranian Shahed unmanned system targeting critical infrastructure in Ukraine, it’s worth destroying it with a Patriot missile,” he said. “Given the ferocious attack Russia is waging against Ukraine’s critical infrastructure, this move makes sense to me.”
Greico of the Stimson Center warns of the possibility that Russia is playing a game of attrition – using cheap Iranian drones to get Ukraine to destroy expensive missiles before unleashing its air force.
“It’s a terrible choice to face, between the natural urge to protect your civilians from these brutal attacks and trying to make sure you have the enduring army to continue to fight back.” Russia’s war effort,” Greico said.
As the war neared the one-year mark, there was also a steady escalation in arms supplies to Ukraine. Retired Air Force Lieutenant General Dave Deptula welcomed the addition of the Patriot system, but said more needed to be added. “Wars cannot be won by good defense alone,” Deptula said, adding that the time had come for the US to provide Ukraine with fighter jets, advanced precision weapons and long-range surface-to-surface missiles. than.
“It’s important to deliver more powerful weapons to Ukraine now to defeat the Russian forces,” Deptula said, “Not just keeping them in a stalemate.”
Additional reporting by Greg Myre of NPR in Kyiv.
