Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen balances China and the US

On an island known for its boisterous politics, Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen is an unlikely leader.

Described by those close to her as erudite and book-loving, Ms. Tsai is known to be cautious and quiet. In 2016, she ordered her staff to keep quiet about a call with incoming President Donald Trump, although this is the first time in decades that a Taiwanese leader has spoken to an American president or president-elect. (Mr. Trump has less discreet.)

When she took the helm of her party 15 years ago, she was known as a technocrat, not a transformative politician. “Many commentators see Tsai as a transitional and relatively weak leader,” noted a US diplomatic cable at the time of assessing her position in Taiwanese politics.

When Tsai, 66, made one of her final visits before leaving office the following year after two terms, she did so as one of the most important leaders in the world. Sitting at the center of the growing divide between China and the United States, she navigates Taiwan between the conflicting claims of the world’s two most powerful nations, one that claims the island is located under his dictatorial rule and another country that sees democracy as a spearhead in the war. broader confrontation with China.

Miss Tsai’s visit This week, including a scheduled meeting with House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, is not about diplomatic breakthroughs, but about strengthening Taiwan’s position in the minds of US leaders. in the context of severe geopolitical instability.

“She has earned her place in the eyes of Americans, as well as elsewhere in the world, as a trusted interlocutor. Steve Yates, chair of the China Policy Initiative at the America First Policy Institute, said it is difficult for China’s propaganda machine to portray her as some sort of mad robot that attacks everything that belongs to it. China.

As president, Ms. Tsai has developed the closest relationship with the United States that Taiwan has had since it became a full democracy nearly 30 years ago, ensuring unwavering support. official with the promise of arms supply. Strengthening the Taipei-Washington link has created space for other countries that do not officially recognize the Taiwanese government to expand their relations, including Japan and several European countries.

This gave the island the best hope of bolstering its defenses against Beijing’s increasingly belligerent calls to take Taiwan by force. Ms. Tsai has also worked to push back China without openly confronting the economic and military giant just 160 kilometers from the Taiwan Strait.

Privately, Ms. Tsai has likened the position to “walking on a tightrope”, according to two people who have worked closely with her. For a role model, she turned to former German chancellor Angela Merkel, who, like her, comes from academia.

“Her mass appeal is not what people consider her forte. But her management, her thinking, her determination and her ability to make decisions are really typical traits that we should see when running a modern country,” Ms. Tsai said of Merkel in a television interview in 2015.

During a stop in New York during her current visit, Ms. Tsai appeared calm and relaxed, omitting some of the humor she normally displays only to those close to her.

Deeply referring to the Chinese Communist Party’s claims to Taiwan, Ms. Tsai told the gathered Americans: “My domestic politics are more difficult than yours, because I have an extra party.” wanted to get into politics,” recalled Patrick M. Cronin, chair of Asia-Pacific security at the Hudson Institute, who attended the closed-door speech.

“This is the leader of Taiwan, seven years into her tenure under constant daily pressure and coercion, she is optimistic and humorous, and connects with the American audience of the country,” he said. as a skilled politician.

When Ms. Tsai stepped into leadership of her Democratic Progressive Party in 2008, she had little competition for the position. The party is reeling from an election defeat and a corruption investigation into former President Chen Shui-bian. Ms. Tsai calmed the mood and built support by managing demand for resources with a new grassroots fundraising campaign.

She had to do campaign work, which in Taiwan included large rallies with speeches played to dramatic music. Liu Chien-hsin, a longtime assistant to Ms. Tsai, recalls: “At first, she couldn’t speak Taiwanese fluently and didn’t know when to step on stage.

She has found her own style, taking advantage of social networks and targeting Taiwanese youth to connect more widely. In the ads, she poses with her cat, Think Think, promoting a small trend toward pet politics.

Ms. Tsai had to overcome geopolitical skepticism. Despite her close relationships with many in Washington, American leaders distrust her party, in part because President Chen has a tendency to deliver fiery speeches that anger China. anger and hinder US efforts to improve Sino-US relations.

In 2011, Ms. Tsai, as her party’s presidential candidate, visited the United States to introduce her foreign policy prospects to the Obama administration. Then an anonymous senior US official told Financial Times that she left the United States with “clear doubts” about her ability and willingness to maintain stability in Taiwan’s relations with Beijing, which were improving under President Xi Jinping. Ma Ying-jeou. Such affection from the United States helped turn 2012 election for Mr. Ma.

According to her former speechwriter Jiho Tiun, she learned from that failure to avoid anything that could be seen as a direct provocation by China. When Ms. Tsai again visited Washington in 2015 on the eve of her ultimately successful presidential campaign, she shaped her party to a consistent vision: a Taiwan that was quietly working to consolidate sovereignty and independence without straining the fractured Sino-American relationship.

“She wants to promote Taiwan’s status as an independent country as far as possible without making the Americans distrust her,” Mr. Tiun said.

That strategy helped strengthen ties. President Biden has swear many times that the United States would defend Taiwan in the event of a conflict, far beyond its predecessors and official commitments to Taiwan. (Each time, the White House has clarified that the calculated ambiguity of the United States policy toward its intent to defend Taiwan in the event of conflict has not changed.) Additional military assistance, arms sales, and Diplomatic visits have emphasized closer ties.

“Tsai is outspoken — she consulted the US first and absorbed many of the American proposals,” said Bonnie Glaser, Asia program director at the Marshall Fund of America.

Managing the relationship with China has been more difficult. Ms. Tsai has had extensive experience working with Chinese officials from Taiwan’s top Mainland Affairs Council. At first, she hoped Beijing would get involved, despite historical mistrust of her party because it accepted a Taiwanese, not a Chinese, identity.

In her 2016 opening speech, she sought to leave the door open, acknowledging the 1992 meeting, despite failing to reach the consensus that Chinese officials and her rival political party, the Kuomintang. party, then claims to have emerged from that meeting. While the legitimacy of the consensus is debated in Taiwan, Beijing has said it should be the foundation of their relationship.

Ms. Tsai, in part for turning back to the Chinese before the inauguration, believed her nod during the meeting was a concession. But Chinese officials countered that Ms. Tsai’s speech was like “an incomplete test”. Ms. Tsai was shocked at the intransigence, according to Raymond Burghardt, former president of the American Institute in Taiwan and a person close to the administration, who declined to be named because of political sensitivities.

The experience influenced her approach to China. Though treading cautiously, she found an opportunity to push back. In late 2018, her administration received intelligence that China’s leader, Xi Jinping, was planning a major speech on Taiwan, according to Lin He-ming, a former spokesman. A member of the presidential office and a longtime assistant to Ms. Tsai, Mr. Liu. Their account was verified by a third person familiar with the matter, who declined to be named due to political sensitivities.

On January 2, 2019, Mr. Xi proposed a new “one country, two systems” approach to Taiwan, reflecting China’s arrangement in Hong Kong, in which Beijing controls city, but in theory has allowed it to a large extent. domestic autonomy.

Within hours, Ms. Tsai reject the idea: “I would like to reiterate that Taiwan will absolutely not accept ‘one country, two systems’. The vast majority of Taiwanese are also firmly opposed to the ‘one country, two systems’ policy, and this opposition is also ‘Taiwan consensus’.”

Her social media group went viral online. They turned her rebuttal into an online poster in English and Chinese. Other advocates have translated it into nearly 40 languages.

“China was very confused about how Tsai was able to disseminate his message to the global community,” said Mr. Lin, a former spokesman.

Beijing’s severance of ties with Ms. Tsai is in some way self-defeating. With his undisputed commitment, Mr. Xi has little chance of winning hearts and minds in Taiwan. Recent Chinese policy includes mixed economic coercion, threats made by officials and state media, and military intimidation through increased sorties by fighter jets and nearby bombers.

That posture helped Tsai accomplish her policy goals. when before Speaker Nancy Pelosi arrives in Taiwan Last year, the highest-ranking US official to visit in 25 years, China hosted large-scale military exercises surrounding the main island of Taiwan. The antagonism, combined with Russia’s war in Ukraine, has raised alarm and strengthened consensus to prepare for a potential Chinese attack. Ms. Tsai could extend her mandatory military service to one year, up from four months.

Even so, many in DC were worried about Taiwan’s readiness. While Ms. Tsai can point to domestic achievements, including pension reform, have the ability to manage the pandemicAnd legalize same-sex marriageefforts to strengthen Taiwan’s defense capabilities have slowed.

Ms. Tsai must step down at the end of her second term next year. Burghardt of the American Institute in Taiwan said that with Taiwan’s noisy politics, it is difficult for her successor to exercise her discipline, which could make the game on the brink of war inherent already dangerous for the island became even more dangerous.

“I think we’ll miss her,” he said. “The real question is whether the Chinese will miss her. Or whether they feel when she’s gone, and if a less cautious person takes the position, it could make them less cautious. It’s a big question mark hanging over the future.”

Christopher Buckley contribution report.