Study quantifies metal supplies needed to achieve EU climate neutrality target – Are you okay?
The independent study by KU Leuven university, commissioned by EU industry, echoes the IEA’s warning of severe global competition for certain metals needed in the energy transition of Europe from fossil fuelsReports and Proceedings
KU LEUVEN / EUROMETAUX
According to a study from the Belgian university KU Leuven, in order to achieve the European Union’s Green Deal target of climate neutrality by 2050, the amount of lithium is increasing 35 times and 7 to 26 times more than that. with limited European use at present.
The energy transition will also require much larger annual supplies of aluminum (equivalent to 30% of what Europe is used to today), copper (35%), silicon (45%), nickel (100) %) and cobalt (330%), all of which are needed for Europe’s plans for electric vehicle and battery production, renewable wind, solar and hydrogen technology, and grid infrastructure electricity needed to achieve climate neutrality.
The good news: By 2050, 40 to 75% of Europe’s clean energy needs can be met through on-site recycling if Europe invests heavily now and fixes the bottlenecks, study “Metals for Clean Energy” by KU Leuven, commissioned by Eurometaux, the European association of metal producers.
However, Europe faces a severe shortfall over the next 15 years without more metals being mined and refined to fuel the start-up of its clean energy system. Progressive steps will be needed to develop a long-term Circular Economy, avoiding a repeat of Europe’s current dependence on fossil fuels.
On March 8, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen calls for Europe to be independent from Russian oil, coal and gas, saying “we simply cannot trust a supplier who has blatantly threatened us. We need to act now to…accelerate the clean energy transition. The faster we transition to renewable energy and hydrogen, combined with greater energy efficiency, the faster we will become truly independent and master our energy systems. “
KU Leuven’s independent study is the first to give EU-specific figures relevant to the International Energy Agency. warning in 2021 Supply challenges for the permitting metals needed to help end fossil fuels.
The study says that by 2050, Europe’s clean energy technology production plans will require annually:
- 4.5 million tons of aluminum (a 33% increase from today’s usage)
- 1.5 million tons of copper (35%)
- 800,000 tons of lithium (3,500%)
- 400,000 tons of nickel (100%)
- 300,000 tons of zinc (10-15%)
- 200,000 tons of silicon (45%)
- 60,000 tons of cobalt (330%)
- and 3,000 tons of rare earth metals neodymium, dysprosium and praseodymium (700-2.60%)
Although the EU is committed to accelerating the energy transition and producing a great deal of clean energy technology domestically, the bloc is still import-dependent for the majority of the metals it needs, the study said. “. “And there are growing concerns about the security of supply.”
Supply risk
According to the study, Europe could face problems around 2030 due to a global shortage of supply for five metals, especially: lithium, cobalt, nickel, rare earths and copper. EU main metal demand will peak around 2040; then, increasing recycling will help the bloc move towards greater self-sufficiency, assuming large investments are made in recycling infrastructure and legislative bottlenecks are resolved .
Liesbet Gregoir, lead author at KU Leuven, commented: “Europe needs to decide urgently how it will close the dwindling primary metal supply gap. Without a decisive strategy, it risks new dependence on unsustainable suppliers.”
Coal-powered Chinese and Indonesian metal production will dominate global refining capacity growth for battery metals and rare earths. Europe also depends on Russia for its current supplies of aluminum, nickel and copper.
The study recommends Europe engages with proven responsible suppliers to manage their environmental and social risks, questioning why the bloc has yet to follow global powers. demand from China in investing in external mines to directly promote ESG standards.
Local challenge
“A paradigm shift is required if Europe is to develop new local sourcing with high social and environmental protections. Today, we don’t see the buying community or the business conditions for the continent to build its own strong supply chain. The window is narrowing; real projects need to be done in the next two years to be ready by 2030”.
The study says there is theoretical potential for new deposits in the country to meet between 5% and 55% of Europe’s needs by 2030, with the largest project pipelines for lithium and rare earths. But most of the announced projects have an uncertain future despite Europe’s relatively high environmental standards, struggling with local community opposition and permitting challenges, or rely on untested processes.
Europe will also need to open new refineries to convert mined ore and secondary raw materials into metals or chemicals. Europe’s energy crisis has challenged new refining investment and soaring electricity prices have forced nearly half of the continent’s existing aluminum and zinc refining capacity to close temporarily, while output increased. in other regions of the world.
Global concern
China and Indonesia’s coal-fired metal production is expected to dominate global refining capacity growth for battery metals and rare earths over the next decade. Prominent after the invasion of Ukraine, Europe also depends on Russia for the supply of imported aluminum, nickel and copper.
The study recommends Europe align with proven responsible suppliers to manage their environmental and social risks, and questions whether the bloc should support investments in external mines. outside to promote ESG standards directly or not.
Metals in today’s range contribute about 3% of the world’s greenhouse gas emissions. Metals and mining operations must manage local biodiversity impacts, waste and potential for local pollution, while ensuring human rights.
Recycling
Research shows that by 2050, domestic recycled metals could produce three-quarters of the cathode of European-made batteries, all plans to produce permanent magnets and significant volumes of aluminum and copper. their tell.
“Recycling is Europe’s best chance to improve self-sufficiency in the long term. It is a step forward that our clean energy system will be based on permanent metals that can be recycled indefinitely, compared to the current continuous burning of fossil fuels.” However, the bloc “must act aggressively now to raise recycling rates, invest in needed infrastructure and fix key economic bottlenecks”.
The study notes that metal recycling saves, on average, 35% to 95% of CO2 compared to primary metal production.
However, recycling “will not bring about a viable EU supply of European electric vehicle batteries and renewable energy technologies until after 2040”, the study clarifies. “These applications and their metals are just coming to market and will not be available for recycling for the next 10-15 years.”
Technological developments and behavioral changes will also have an important effect on metal demand after 2030, but could not be assessed in the study due to lack of scenarios.
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About
KU Leuven
Katholieke Universiteit Leuven is a research university in Leuven, Belgium. It conducts teaching, research, and service in computer science, engineering, natural sciences, theology, humanities, medicine, law, canon law, business, and social sciences.
EurometauxEuropean Metal Manufacturers Association
Headquartered in Brussels, Eurometaux represents Europe’s non-ferrous metal producers and recyclers, promoting sustainable production, use and recycling of non-ferrous metals and a supportive business environment.
RESEARCH METHODS
Systematic review
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