“Part of the North Atlantic is cooling down”… “Natural volatility has become the main reason” – Do you enjoy it?
Via P Gosselin on April 30, 2022
New studies of the Atlantic current system assess the threshold between natural and evolutionary variations due to climate change.
April 25, 2022 / Kiel, Germany. With a new publication in the scientific journal Nature Climate Change, researchers from Kiel once again contribute to the understanding of changes in the Atlantic Economic Reversal Cycle (AMOC) – also known as is the “Gulf Current System”. It is as important for the global climate as it is for climate events in Europe. The authors focused on the question of whether human-caused climate change is slowing this oceanic circulation. According to new research, natural variations still prevail. Improved vision systems can help detect human influences on existing systems at an early stage.
Is the Atlantic Meridian Cycle (AMOC) slowing down? Is this system of ocean currents, so important to our climate, likely to be shut down in the future? Are the observed variations a natural phenomenon or are they caused by anthropogenic climate change? Researchers from different scientific disciplines use a variety of methods to better understand the ocean’s massive circulation.
“AMOC provides Europe with a temperate climate and determines seasonal precipitation in many countries around the Atlantic. If it weakens for a long time, this will also affect our weather and climate. Other consequences could be faster sea-level rise on some coasts or a reduction in the ocean’s ability to absorb carbon dioxide and mitigate climate change,” said Professor Dr Mojib Latif, Head of the Research Unit. : Marine Meteorology at the GEOMAR Helmholtz Center for Kiel Ocean Research, explained. “We depend on AMOC in many ways – but so far, we can only guess how it will develop, and whether we as humans will push it to a tipping point where its collapse will not occur. unstoppable will happen or not.”
Thus, using observational data, statistical analysis and model computation, a team led by Professor Latif examined the changes in the current system over the past hundred years in more detail. The results have now been published in a scientific journal Natural climate change. According to the researchers, part of The North Atlantic is cooling – a striking contrast to most ocean areas. All assessments indicate that since the beginning of the 20th century, natural fluctuations have been the main reason for this cooling. However, studies indicate that AMOC has begun to slow down in recent decades.
Climate models consistently predict a significant slowdown of the current system in the future as carbon dioxide emissions continue to rise, oceans continue to warm, and the melting of the Greenland ice sheet accelerates . “Our results confirm previous scientific findings. But the question remains how long we will be in the realm of natural variability and when climate change will take control of the AMOC. Then the trend will point in the direction of weakness and the risk could increase significantly,” pointed out GEOMAR co-author and meteorologist Dr Jing Sun.
The authors conclude that better observational data are needed to determine the critical limit. Professor Dr Martin Visbeck said: “Systematic and continuous measurements of the changes that have taken place in the Atlantic also allow us to speak with more certainty about the effects of climate change on with current and future AMOC systems”. The head of the Physical Oceanography Research Unit at GEOMAR is also a co-author of the new publication. “ONECurrently, we don’t see any clear signs that the system is slowing down significantly – rather, it is oscillating. But since the latest climate models agree that there will be a significant reduction, we should know how much longer we are on the relatively safe side of natural variability.. ”
Original publication:
Latif, M., Sun, J., Visbeck, M., Bordbar MH (2022): Natural variability driving Atlantic meridian inversion since 1900. Natural Climate Change, doi 10.1038 / s41558-022-01342-4.
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