Storms expected to linger in Northeast cities, causing more damage – Is it emerging for that?
Other storms like Hurricane Sandy could hit the East Coast in the future, potentially causing billions of dollars in damage and economic damage.
Federation of Geometry of the United States of America
CREDIT: NASA GODDARD
WASHINGTON — By the end of the 21stNS century, northeastern U.S. cities will see worse hurricane outcomes, with storms arriving faster but slowing as they make landfall. As storms last longer on the East Coast, they cause greater damage along densely populated corridors, according to a new study.
inside new research, climate scientist Andra Garner at Rowan University analyzed more than 35,000 computer-simulated hurricanes. To assess the outcome of possible future storms, Garner and her colleagues compared where hurricanes form, how fast they move, and where they end up from prehistoric times. industry by the end of 21NS century.
The researchers found that future East Coast storms are likely to cause more damage than past storms. The study predicts that a large number of future hurricanes will form near the East Coast, and that those storms will reach the Northeast Corridor more quickly. Simulated storms slow down as they approach the East Coast, allowing them to generate more wind, rain, flooding, and related damage in the Northeast. The longest-lived tropical cyclones are predicted to be twice as old as current storms.
The study was published in The Future of the Earth, publishes interdisciplinary research into the past, present, and future of our planet and its inhabitants.
Changes in hurricane speed will be driven by shifts in atmospheric patterns over the Atlantic, driven by warmer air temperatures. While Garner and her colleagues note that more research remains to be done to fully understand the relationship between climate warming and changing storm paths, they note that potential shifts northward potential in an area where the trade winds of the Northern and Southern Hemisphere meet or environmental wind speeds could slow down deplorably.
“When you think about a hurricane moving along the East Coast, there are larger-scale wind patterns that help push them back into the sea,” says Garner. “We see those winds slowing down over time.” Without those winds, hurricanes might prolong their welcome on the coast.
Garner, whose previous work has focused on the devastating East Coast impact of hurricanes like Hurricane Sandy, particularly in the Mid-Atlantic, said the concern of the new study is the potential for more hurricanes. hurricanes are likely to cause similar levels of damage as Sandy.
And the longer hurricanes last, the worse they can get, she said.
“Think of Hurricane Harvey in 2017 making landfall in Texas and Hurricane Dorian in 2019 over the Bahamas,” she said. “That prolonged exposure can exacerbate the effects.”
Between 2010 and 2020, the coastlines of the United States were affected by 19 qualifying tropical cyclones billion dollar disaster, causing about $480 billion in losses, adjusted for inflation. If hurricanes make landfall on coasts for a longer period of time, the economic damage is also likely to increase. For the authors, that provides a clear economic incentive to stem the rise of greenhouse gas emissions.
“The work creates further evidence of the need to cut greenhouse gas emissions to halt climate warming,” said Garner.
“This study shows that climate change will play a role,” said co-author Benjamin Horton, who studies sea-level rise and leads the Singapore Earth Observatory at Nanyang Technological University of Technology. long-term in increasing strength of storms along the east. coasts of the United States and elsewhere. Planning how to mitigate the impact of major hurricanes must take this into account.”
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Notes for journalists:
This study is published with open access and is freely available. Download a PDF copy of the article here. Neither the newspaper nor this press release are embargoed.
Newspaper headline:
“Evolving tropical cyclones track in the North Atlantic in a warming climate”
Authors:
- Andra J. Garner (corresponding author) Department of Environmental Science, Rowan University, Glassboro, New Jersey, USA
- Robert E. Kopp, Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences and Institute of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences, Rutgers University, Piscataway, New Jersey, USA
- Benjamin P. Horton, Singapore Earth Observatory, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore
JOURNEYS
Earth’s Future
DOI
ARTICLE PUBLICATION DATE
November 22, 2021
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