The race to provide high-speed internet from satellite is well underway – but another, more ambitious competition, to connect directly from space with devices like smartphones, has begun. seriously at the beginning of this year.
The untapped potential market – which revolves around, but more broadly, sending text through space – is driving a story of two strategies: Placing dedicated antennas for phones, vs. with those who put high power antennas on the satellite itself. For some companies, that means billions of dollars spent on what could turn out to be a loss-making approach.
“The satellite industry is really niche and – if they can harness the connectivity of billions of smartphones – they can start talking about a larger market size than they’ve been able to deal with before.” Here. Everything used to be in the millions.” Caleb Henry, senior analyst at store research firm Quilty Analytics, told CNBC.
A wide range of projects and partners – from Apple, IridicSpaceX, T Mobile and AT&T, among others – was at the forefront in 2022, at various stages of development to connect directly to smartphones. Long a dream of satellite communications visionaries, but bulky, specialized and often expensive satellite phones have lost their appeal to the masses.
According to Patricia Cooper, founder of Constellation Advisory and former SpaceX vice president of government satellite affairs, developments in technology are now improving the race to perfect air-based communications. time.
“One of the differences [from earlier generations] is the ability of today’s satellites in low Earth orbit, which means they can provide more than a kind of thin text, or almost like a messaging service,” Cooper said.
Divergent technology
SpaceX this summer announced a partnership that would allow T-Mobile users to send messages from places not reachable by ground cell towers, using SpaceX’s second generation of Starlink satellites.
CEO Elon Musk says the larger, upgraded Starlink satellites will have wide antennas that can transmit directly to mobile devices, and T-Mobile hopes to eventually add voice calling via satellite.
While SpaceX has launch more than 3,000 first-generation satellites By now, adding direct-to-phone service would require thousands more.
The partnership is similar to the one made by AST SpaceMobile. Company last month put its second test satellite into orbit and has transactions with mobile telecommunications, including AT&T, Vodafone and Rakuten. Satellite company public via SPAC last year and has raised nearly $600 million to date.
AST’s network will include fewer satellites than the Starlink constellation, but still calls for nearly 250 satellites to be deployed for global coverage.
The private venture Lynk Global also aims to deliver a cell tower in space from a satellite, with plans to create a few thousand constellations over the next few years. Lynk has raised about $25 million since its founding in 2017. So far, it has put five test satellites in orbit.
The company claims to have sent “the world’s first text message from a satellite in orbit to a standard mobile phone on the ground” in early 2020.
And while some build satellite networks, other big players are eyeing innovations on Earth, with systems reliant on a dedicated antenna in phones.
Apple – the leading provider of smartphone communications via satellite to date, although starting capacity is limited – recently announced An urgent feature of the iPhone 14 models promotes technology. Cooperation with Globalstarfeature that allows users to send compressed text messages from iPhone 14s via satellite.
Apple will spend more than $400 million to use most of Globalstar’s network and add more satellites to it.
Iridic, a longtime dedicated phone-to-satellite communications service provider, has yet to announce a partner to offer direct-to-smartphone service. However, CEO Matt Desch last month told CNBC at the World Satellite Business Week 2022 conference that his company was “working on that opportunity.”
Iridium is expected to close a deal with a smartphone partner by the end of 2022, with Desch having said that “our service will become global on day one” when it launches.
One way to go
Companies must overcome key technological and regulatory hurdles to bring these long envisioned networks to market.
“The offerings so far have all started with the most in-depth services they can offer – and that’s messaging,” notes Henry of Quilty Analytics. “The real proof of the level of service each of these companies will be able to provide will ultimately depend on the number of satellites they can launch, the power of the satellites, and the amount of spectrum they can access. access.”
Both Henry and Cooper say the regulatory unknowns surrounding these types of services will be a particular challenge for the companies’ networks. Telecommunications is “a highly regulated sector,” Cooper said, and “there aren’t many scenarios where the rules are first established for a new technological innovation.”
She also stressed the true scope of the market and its profitability remains to be seen.
“I don’t think we know how this will be paid. We don’t know if the market will be determined by how much mobile companies will pay satellite companies to partner and invest. fourth or not. [in constellation infrastructure]or whether it’s going to be paid for by the consumer and it’s going to add a dime to your bill and that’s going to the satellite companies,” Cooper said.
“Until we know that, we can’t know the scale,” Cooper added.
