Via P Gosselin
The risk of “spectacular cold outbreaks”…have countries caught off guard?
in him The most recent Weatherbell Saturday recapVeteran meteorologist Joe Bastardi looks at winter weather in the coming weeks across the globe.
What definitely distinguishes Joe from the forecasters I follow in Germany here is that he doesn’t just rely on so-called ensemble models to make his long-term forecasts, but back to the archives. and searching for similar patterns has been going on for decades. advance (similar) to better discern which way the weather is likely to change in the coming weeks.
German forecasters like here , here and here want to put out videos once or even twice a day reporting on what a lot of the modeling teams are showing, which is something no one really needs a meteorological license to do. You often hear these weather experts suddenly change their 7+ day forecast, in line with whatever the latest forecast comes out. However, most of us know that such forecasts are only valid until the next collective run because after 7 days the patterns can and often do turn around.
“Very worried” about getting cold
In Joe’s latest forecast, he again uses the same years to forecast the coming weeks. I recall a forecast he made about 2 weeks ago, warning that early December would likely turn cold in Europe – longer than anywhere else – based on weather patterns seen over many years. past decade. Amazingly, now the models are finally getting to witness the frigid weather for next weekend.
in him Latest forecastJoe has become “very worried” about the coming cold, which will be a real problem for people not only in the US but around the globe.
“Remember my words, if this kind of cold appears, then we’ve been setting up since late summerand it looks like it’s at least worth considering, there’s going to be blame on climate change for the containment that caused it.”
Joe worries that many countries won’t have enough energy to meet the projected icy challenges that are politically unforgivable in 2022 with all of our modern technology.
The kind of containment and cold-forward model that Joe is referring to is something the world has seen/documented as well decades ago and it won’t be anything new if it becomes a thing of the past.
Joe shows graphs indicating what he says “could be a spectacular cold outbreak”. Only now do the models show what Joe warned about weeks and months ago: swathes of the northern hemisphere are being blanketed by below-normal cold:
Source: Cut from weather bells
“Real wild. It’s something we’ve seen since the 1970s,” Joe noted.
The 1970s also saw energy shortages and similar weather patterns. You would think our leaders would learn something from all of that. No sewing. Again, some countries are at risk of energy shortages this winter.
Of course, no prediction is certain. But for many years, Joe’s often beat the long-term forecasts (more than 14 days) made by the national weather offices. Shows we can learn a lot from weather history.
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Note from Charles. Joe Bastardi’s Warning to Ron Desantis on September 21 in retrospect can be considered an extremely scientific prediction for Hurricane Ian.
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