Somali pirates and warlords need more access to financial services – Are you up for that?

Essay by Eric Worrall

According to European academic models, the reason Horn of Africa is a crime and war-torn horror show is that locals don’t have enough access to Western financial services and trees. High quality planting.

We built an algorithm to predict how climate change will affect future conflict in the Horn of Africa: here’s what we found

Published: July 6, 2022 8 hours 33 minutes AEST

Jannis Hoch Postdoctoral Researcher in Natural Hazards, University of Utrecht
Niko Wanders Assistant Professor of Hydrological Extremes, University of Utrecht
Sophie de Bruin Environmental Change Researcher, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam

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To try to forecast the risks from armed conflict in the region in the future, we – researchers from Utrecht University and the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, together with the Peace Research Institute Oslo and Uppsala University – created a machine learning model to see different scenarios of armed conflict on the African continent could take place between now and 2050. Specifically, we wanted to know how armed conflict might be affected by climate change, as well as economic development. economic and social future.

Our results suggest that cutting emissions globally and investing in local socioeconomic development can reduce the risk of conflict. Doing this would also have the added benefit of helping local food production grow and reducing dependence on international commercial markets. But when we do this scenario, the Horn of Africa region remains particularly vulnerable to conflict.

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For example, it is important that local farmers have better access to banks and insurance, so if crops fail in one year, they can start again the next year. Farms need to prioritize crops more resilient resistant to drought, such as quinoa, millet and sorghum. And Financial institutions, governments, businesses and local communities all have a responsibility to reduce emissions and keep climate change at a minimum.

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Read more: https://theconversation.com/we-built-an-algorithm-to-p Predict-how-climate-change-will-affect-future-conflict-in-the-horn-of-africa-heres-what- we- found-185627

I’m pretty sure there might be a social problem or two that need to be addressed before Western banks start issuing credit cards to rural Somalis.

It must be said that Horn of Africa is not a non-stop horror show. I remember watching an interview a long time ago with a finance minister of Somalilanda relatively stable region of the Horn of Africa, who explained the reason for Somaliland’s stability was the LOT of access to Western banking services.

I couldn’t find the original interview, but there are plenty of others who have come to the same conclusion.

In Somaliland, less money has brought more democracy

Unable to access foreign aid, the Somaliland government has had to negotiate with citizens and business leaders for financial support – and in return stability and democracy.

Nick Eubank
Friday, August 26, 2011 16.00 AEST

As the humanitarian crisis in southern Somalia threatens millions of lives, Somalia’s little-known northern neighbor, Somaliland, is doing so well that its government is doing it. recently offered to send aid across the border. The fact that a small and relatively poor country is also suffering from an ongoing drought could help Somalia; The fact that Somaliland has achieved this status without being officially recognized by the international community as a sovereign state – and therefore ineligible for international support – is truly impressive.

But do Somaliland’s achievements come despite its ineligibility for foreign aid, or because of it? Somaliland’s success – bringing about peace, stability and democracy in an all-scarce region – is in large part due to the government’s never receiving foreign aid. Since the Somaliland government cannot access funding from the World Bank, IMF or other major donors, officials are forced to negotiate with citizens and business leaders for financial support. This negotiation has produced sensitive political institutions that, in turn, have allowed the country to achieve relatively good results in recent years and in the current crisis.

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In one notable incident, the government was forced to implement democratic reforms in exchange for tax revenue from the main port of Somaliland. This totals less than $30 million a year – a fraction of the more than $100 million the government would receive from aid organizations if Somaliland were to qualify for international assistance. It’s hard to imagine that the owners of the port could make such a concession if the government has other funding options.

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Read more: https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/po Poor-matters/2011/aug/26/somaliland-less-money-more-democracy

I suspect the worst that could happen to Somalia is what climate scientists say their model favors, more access to foreign cash. Dropping a truckload of Western money and financial “support” into a government is only recent and grudgingly accepts democratic reform, because this is the only way they can convince people to pay their bills. taxes, could derail the fragile accord that at least had hoped to set part of Somalia on the path to better governance, and undo all of their hard-won progress.