Throughout history, weather has played an important role in warfare, and therefore, examining the past, present and future weather situation in Ukraine can be valuable for gathering insights. insight into the future of this terrible conflict.
Weather conditions for offensive and defensive operations
Cloudy, rainy conditions and low visibility are often beneficial for defense, as offensive operations – from aircraft-based attacks, intelligence gathering from aircraft or satellites, and targeting Cannon target – destroyed by storm, rain or cloud cover situations.
February is drier and sunnier than usual in Ukraine, followed by a cooler/cloudy period in early March. Over the past week, unusually high pressure has existed in the north of Ukraine (see upper-level map yesterday, below), causing warmer and drier conditions across the country. This has benefited Russia’s offensive operations.
Higher level map (500 hPa, about 18,000 ft), with colors showing how different the situation is from normal. Red indicates enhanced altitude (higher than normal altitude/pressure), which is producing clear and warming skies over Ukraine. Ukraine is indicated by a blue star.
This situation – favorable for the Russians – will continue for another 3-5 days, but after that there will be a major change in the atmospheric structure with a deep depression developing to the north (see map forecast March 27) . Weather conditions will deteriorate in Ukraine, support Ukrainians.
The European Center’s forecast for simulated cloud images on Monday (March 28) shows deep clouds covering Ukraine.
Monday, March 28, Satellite Simulation. Courtesy of WeatherBell LLC
Temperatures will then drop below normal and precipitation will spread across Ukraine (total rainfall for the 72 hours ending March 31 is shown below).
In short, the weather this week will be favorable for offensive operations (and resupply missions) but that will change over the weekend. Next week, cloudy skies and rainfall will support the defenses.
“Common mud”
What about the situation on the ground? As noted in a previous blog and numerous media accounts, Ukraine, eastern Russia and surrounding areas are known for their very muddy conditions during spring (due to snow melting into the ground). poorly drained) and autumn (with the return of autumn rains), while the soil solidifies in the middle of winter and the dry soil in the summer (with dust) is favorable for military operations.
The snow has now melted over most of Ukraine, with the exception of the far eastern regions, as evident in a satellite image visible yesterday and Central Europe snow analysis (both below). ).
MODIS visible satellite image on Monday, March 21. Snow is visible over the extreme northeastern region of Ukraine.
Central Europe Snow Analysis on Monday
To get some perspective on the situation, the rainfall situation in Kyiv is shown below. No snow in mid-February and dry conditions for weeks.
Courtesy of Weatherspark
Compare this to a more typical year (2018) where the snow lingers into March.
Snowmelt is ahead of schedule because of the warm, dry February and warm/dry conditions over the past week.
You can get an idea of where the snow melts this year by looking at the satellite image visible on February 13 (below). After that, the snow melted a lot on the northern part of the country compared to the image shown earlier.
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The bottom line is that the snowmelt on the northern part of Ukraine was earlier this year and started with less snowmelt. Light rain falls on melted snow. So if “General Mud” is helping to slow down attacking armor and its support vehicles, it’s happening now and won’t last until late spring like other normal years.
Russian tank got stuck in the mud 3 weeks ago
