There’s plenty of action to choose from this weekend. With a little luck, this columnist can return winning ways.
The Longshot
This column rarely gives advice to an underdog, and with good reason; Risk-adverse matchmaking is designed to ensure that the “house” boxer wins. Of course, messing up happens quite often but identifying the right inexperienced boxer to fight against can be very difficult. Today, I will be brave.
The basics of the British ultralight belt war between Dalton Smith and Sam O’Maison, Jordan Thompson takes on Vasil Ducar. Mancunian Thompson is an interesting prospect; he’s a born athlete, played elite level tennis as a junior and made an impressive transition to boxing.
The same attributes that made ‘Troublesome’ successful with racquets and balls played a big part in his success in the ring; namely his 6’6” frame and explosive power. In 13 matches, only two opponents heard the final bell. As a result, Thompson never made it past the fourth round.
At 29, time is not on Thompson’s side. Matchroom has clearly decided to raise the level of resistance their fighters face. It is difficult for newcomers to hit hard like the Manchester-born player, as the power of the punch can hide many limitations. The only way to truly gauge a boxer’s potential is to find an opponent durable enough to withstand the blows.
Vasil Ducar fits that bill. The Czechs showed their toughness on their last visit to these shores, taking Chris Billam-Smith 10 laps gap is expected, in March last year. The current European and Commonwealth cruiser champion, Billam-Smith, possesses a different kind of strength than Thompson; Bournemouth’s men’s punches are clubbing, while ‘Troublesome’ is explosive. It remains to be seen how Ducar handles the issues posed by Thompson, but he has only been stopped once in five defeats, to Mike Perez. Cubans are highly skilled and experienced, which Thompson certainly does not.
There are many questions surrounding Thompson, but Ducar will provide the answers. However, with the fight going to 10 rounds, this could be a step too big, too soon. If the Czechs could survive the early stanzas, suddenly, the outlook for the war would change. We know Ducar has no fitness issues and has a nice chin, we don’t know if Thompson has those attributes. Ducar to win is available at 11/1 and is worth a small amount of money – even though there will probably be some anxiety for early framers.
Well, I believe it’s also worth supporting the tie in the fight between Tyrone McKenna and Chris Jenkins. Both men are prone to cutting their hands and there is always the possibility of the duel being stopped due to a cut in the hand. The draw is 25/1 with Betfred.
Pair
Irish Outlook, Paddy Donovan, taking on the role of Tom Hill, after Michael Conlan’s return to the ring. Donovan, coached by Andy Lee, has barely misplaced a foot in his eight games so far and faces a slight step up in Hill’s form. The Yorkshireman has the experience to upset the Irish, having beaten Rohan Date by more than eight rounds earlier this year. However, Donovan is an upper class. The pick is for the hard south game to intercept Hill between rounds 5-8 at 8/15.
Topping the Chamber bill, Dalton Smith fights, Sheffield rival Sam O’Maison for the vacant British ultralight car title. O’Maison was once a touted prospect, but failed to reach the heights many had hoped he would. Smith, on the other hand, has been impressive in his 11 professional matches. O’Maison was stopped after 2/3 loss and I believe he won’t be able to handle Smith’s power and precision. I will give Smith to win between rounds 4-6 at 8/5.
Pairs cost more than 6/1.
Treble
For all the reasons stated in The Longshot, I believe there is a reasonable chance that Ducar could take Thompson from a distance. Since this match is taking place in the UK, it makes sense to turn against the British if a match is played with scorecards. Thompson by decision priced 12/5.
If you like all three picks, this week’s treble is just under 25/1.
