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Mike Clay, Writer of ESPN
Player props are rolling out for the 2023 NFL season, and I compared them – as well as the team’s total wins – to mine. forecast to find the best values across the board.
The plays below are my favorite plays from the AFC East and NFC South divisions.
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Josh Allen BELOW 4,300.5 yards
Projection: 4.163
Allen passed this mark in both 2020 and 2021, but didn’t miss a single game. If he misses even one pass (and uses his weekly average as a benchmark), he will be 4,301 yards short of passes. In 2022, Allen missed a match (postponed vs Cincinnati) and fell short of this goal. It’s clear that Allen has been enduring and the missed game isn’t his, but if you’re betting this, you’re essentially assuming a 17-game season. It’s a tough bet to recommend considering there are only eight QBs that have played 17 games in 2022 and 11 QBs played in 2021. Betting usually involves playing against odds and the odds are definitely tilted. about below here.
Tagovailoa OVER 3,800.5 yards
Screening: 3,878 (15 matches)
Tagovailoa’s concussion issues are a concern, so I understand if you want to stay away from this. However, check this out: if we look at Tagovailoa’s entire 12 games last season, his 17-game pace is 4,870 yards. That’s over 1,000 meters above this stand! Not enough of a sample? Fair. In his 11 full games in 2021, his 17-game pace is 3,836 yards, well above this. Tagovailoa was third in average depth of throw, second in QBR and first in yards per pass made last season. Even with a 15-game prediction and underperformance, Tagovailoa still predicts on this prop.
Dolphin OVER 9.5 wins
Projection: 11.0
Talking about Tagovailoa’s terrible form, if he is healthy this season, Miami will not have much trouble reaching the 9.5-win mark. In fact, the Dolphins started 8-0 in games Tua played all of last season, only to fall back at the end of the year during a difficult period that included road games at the 49ers, Charger, and the 49ers. and Bills. Miami’s attack looks solid, but what really makes this ‘ending’ game so compelling is its theoretically best defense in the league. Jalen Ramsey And David Long Jr.. are important additions to the season for an ascending lead-based team Christian Wilkins, Jaelan Phillips, baker Jerome, Xavien Howard And Dutch Jevon. Oh, and some people named Bradley Chubb is entering his first full season with the team. New defense coordinator Vic Fangio has the necessary personnel for an elite unit. Even in what can be a tough split, I still like the ending.
Bryce Young Under 22.5 beats TD
Projection: 18.4
This might be my favorite play on the books. Young – the first overall pick in the April draft – actually opened with line 24.5, so this pick has started to dwindle. However, it’s still too high considering that, in tournament history, only seven rookie QBs have managed to beat TD 23 times (Justin Herbert, Mayfield baker, Russell WilsonPeyton Manning, Daniel Jones, Dak Prescott and Andrew Luck). The league has expanded to 17 games since those performances, but watch this: only 13 QBs have achieved 23 TD passes per season over the past two seasons, most of them by QB in playoff teams. Even in a lightweight division, Carolina (a team that has gone 23 past TD in one of the previous seven seasons), is not the favorite for the trip to the post-season. As if that wasn’t enough, Young’s supporting cast is still a work in progress, with Adam Thielen, DJ Chark, Hayden Hurst and rookies Jonathan Mingo its primary goal.
Falcons BELOW 8.5 wins
Projection: 7.2 (even with the second easiest schedule)
With no team clearly standing out, NFC South is as close as you’ll get to an extended division, but 8.5 is still too much of a win total for Atlanta. In fact, my prediction of 7.2 points in the schedule I predict is the second-easiest schedule of the tournament. The Falcons haven’t even won eight games since 2017 and although the roster has improved throughout the season, there are still major holes, including in the wide receiver, wide runner, full-back, full-back and most notably midfielder. QB second year Desmond Ridder has managed to make 115 passes in his career and his only two touchdowns in 2022 are against Tampa Bay backups in Week 18. He can make the leap. in Year 2? Sure, but the third round QB didn’t have a very good record. Russell Wilson is a rare success story of the past decade, along with the likes of Matt Schaub, Nick Foles, Mike Glennon And Jacoby Brissett best case otherwise.
Chris Olave OVER 4.5 get TD
Projection: 5.4
Olave was held four times TD as a rookie, but his use near the line increased with the better QB in his second season. He seems to be the real deal, having held a massive 27% target market share as a rookie and has racked up 2.5 YPRR (seventh best out of all WRs). Six TD picks is not a high standard, especially for the No. 1 receiver across the board, as 45 players have already reached the milestone by 2022. With Derek Carr now in the center, Olave should be able to get half a dozen points.
Miles Sanders BELOW 6.5 TD in a hurry
Projection: 5.5
Sanders made 11 touchdowns last season, but his first three NFL seasons saw him score three, seven and no TD rush. And that’s behind an elite Eagles offensive line, not a Carolina unit that looks like a league average in 2023. Sanders is generally not a factor near the line, as 2022 marked his first season to finish inside the top 30 when running back inside the opponent’s 5-yard line. He’s also less likely to foul, as the 2022 Eagles have scored 57 offensive TDs (second most), while Carolina’s scored 32, and the NFL average for offensive TDs is in the 37s. to 38.
