People board a train from Ukraine at the main railway station in Przemysl, Poland on February 27, 2022.
Nurphoto | Nurphoto | beautiful pictures
Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine caused a pivotal moment in European politics, with prominent politicians breaking through decades of policy doctrine in just a few days.
“This weekend, we saw a tectonic shift in Europe’s approach to Russia,” said Frederick Kempe, president of the Atlantic Council foreign policy think tank. said Monday on CNBC’s “Capital Connection” channel.
Last weekend, Germany says it will send lethal weapons to Ukraine, while boosting military spending to more than 2% of GDP. The country, due to its role in World War II, has previously refused to send lethal weapons to any conflict zones, including Ukraine, and has also opted for small public investment in defense capabilities. mine. This has now been turned on.
In Poland and Hungary, two countries that have taken a tougher stance on the EU when it comes to welcoming refugees from Syria and war-torn countries, have now become the most important reception areas for refugees. Ukrainians fleeing violence.
And the EU, whose 27-member bloc is often criticized for its slow progress and lack of consensus, not only quickly passed harsh sanctions but still agreed; but also said it would fund – for the first time in history – the purchase and delivery of weapons to a country in conflict.
A longtime EU official who did not wish to be named due to the sensitive nature of the situation told CNBC on Monday: “The developments over the weekend on the EU front have been quite impressive. In Brussels and especially in Berlin “.
The same official added: “Many hope to see the power of purpose in the face of such outrage, but few believe it will materialize quickly.”
Future policy implications
Luis Garicano, a member of the European Parliament for the European Renewal Liberal party, told CNBC that the “heroic” stance of Ukraine and its president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, coupled with pressure from European citizens Europe has contributed to significant changes this weekend in European politics.
“It changes everything,” he said of future policymaking in the EU, adding that the war in Ukraine made it clear that the European Union needed a unified and strong foreign policy. strong.
Mr. Garicano also said Nordic and Eastern European countries are often “the most skeptical” of a unified EU foreign policy, but noted that conflict is a problem for both regions.
Northern countries, notably Finland and Sweden have also faced veiled threats from Russia regarding joining NATO.
Countries such as Poland, Hungary and the Baltic states, including Estonia and Lithuania, are concerned that the conflict could affect them due to their proximity to Russia.
To be fair, the EU has stood up to the challenge, which bodes well for its ambitions for strategic autonomy.
Emre Peker
Director of consulting firm Eurasia Group
This renewed political landscape could promote Europe’s strategic autonomy – a concept that pushes the bloc to develop its own defense capabilities and the President’s Emmanuel Macron of France has advocated for several years.
“It is fair to say that the EU has stood up to the challenge, which bodes well for its ambitions for strategic autonomy,” Emre Peker, director of consulting firm Eurasia Group, told CNBC by phone.
“I still don’t anticipate an EU army,” he said, but added that Russia’s aggression against Ukraine “will now move [this] discussion forward. “
French election
As such, Macron could benefit from this political climate as he seeks re-election in about a month’s time.
“The war in Ukraine will have a dramatic impact on the French presidential election, making President Emmanuel Macron’s re-election all the more likely,” Mujtaba Rahman, managing director at Eurasia Group, said in a statement. a note last week.
Macron is expected to announce in the coming days that he will run for a second time as leader of France.
The 44-year-old has been trying to be Europe’s main mediator with Russia’s Vladimir Putin to avoid any invasion. Some have criticized him for being “too fresh” to approach the Kremlin, but his attempts at the close connection some of his political opponents have with Russia could boost his chances. .
“Despite the failure of his efforts to forge a diplomatic solution; the four candidates and parties closest to Macron in the polls – especially the rival far-right candidates – has a history of shameful admiration for the President of Russia, Vladimir Putin,” added Rahman.
Ukraine is a member of the EU
The EU became a club of 27 countries after the UK left in January 2020 and the last time a country joined the group was in 2013 – Croatia.
The deepening financial crisis of 2008 and the subsequent sovereign debt crisis held back EU expansion.
However, Poland, Slovenia and Lithuania say it is necessary to speed up Ukraine’s accession to the EU by granting it candidate status – a formal recognition that a country wants to join the EU and is working on its own. reforms needed to become one.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has asked the EU to immediately join the bloc under a special procedure, Reuters reported on Monday. The European Commission, the EU’s executive body, was not immediately available for comment when contacted by CNBC on Monday.
Another EU official, who did not wish to be named due to the sensitive nature of the subject, said that “these things are very, very long and complicated procedures, so it won’t help Zelenskyy right away.”
The same official said that EU leaders could discuss the topic at their next meeting in early March.
