Ian Bremmer, president of Eurasia Group, commander of Russian mercenary Yevgeny Prigozhin is a “dead man who comes back to life” after leading a failed uprising against Vladimir Putin.
The armed uprising over the weekend by Prigozhin, a former Putin ally who founded the private militia group Wagner, is seen by many as the biggest threat to the Russian president’s 23-year-old power. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the episode exposed The “crash” in the Kremlin that have never been seen before.
Prigozhin is “kind of a walking dead man at this point,” Bremmer said.Asian Squawk Box” Monday. “I’d be surprised if he’s still with us in a few months.”
This Prigozhin-led uprising was unprecedented new ground for Putin, who until then had been able to quickly quell the occasional unarmed protest. By the end of the week, the Wagner mutants had reached within 200 kilometers of Moscow before their leader abruptly announced the abort of the mission.
Anyone who believes that Putin is suddenly about to relinquish power needs to realize that’s not where we are.
Ian Bremmer
Chairman of Eurasia Group
Bremmer added: “Putin jailed and assassinated far fewer people than Prigozhin did to him. “I cannot imagine that Putin would allow him to live longer than necessary.”
The march of Wagner fighters towards Moscow has left the Kremlin scrambling to defend the capital after mercenaries allegedly took control of the southwestern city of Rostov-on-Don within hours. Russia.
Rostov is strategically symbolic as the headquarters of the Southern Military District for the Russian military, a command and logistics center for Putin’s war with Ukraine.
Wagner mercenaries patrol central Rostov-on-Don – a hub for Russia’s Ukraine campaign – after it captured key facilities on June 24, 2023 as part of an armed uprising.
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As part of a deal brokered by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, Prigozhin will live in exile in Belarus in exchange for a halt to the uprising. The Kremlin has agreed to drop the criminal case against Prigozhin, according to the state-controlled TASS news agency.
“Clearly this shows an unprecedented level of weakness on the part of President Putin,” Bremmer said.
“But at the same time, while Putin has been tested like never before, there hasn’t been a single high-profile defection from the Russian military, from the Russian government or among Russian oligarchs – so anyone who believes Putin suddenly about to leave power, it’s also important to realize that’s not our place,” he added.
The bitter feud between Prigozhin and the Moscow military establishment escalated in recent weeks after the Kremlin wanted all private mercenary forces to sign contracts with the Defense Ministry by July 1. refuse.
The stalemate broke out when Prigozhin launched an armed uprising on Friday after accusing the Russian military of shooting at his mercenaries.
“Prigozhin’s goal is to get Putin’s attention and impose a discussion on the conditions for maintaining his activities – a defining role, security and funding,” said Tatiana Stanovaya, senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Center for Eurasia, writes on Twitter.
“These are not demands to overthrow the government; they are a desperate attempt to save business, hoping that Prigozhin’s merits in capturing Bakhmut… will be taken into account and concerns will be aroused. Putin’s serious attention,” she added.
The Wagner warriors were a key force in Putin’s war against Ukraine, and played a key role in capturing the eastern city of Bakhmut.
