Russian President Vladimir Putin (centre) raises a glass of vodka with General Valery Gerasimov, who is currently in charge of the military operation in Ukraine, in 2016.
Mikhail Svetlov | Getty Images News | beautiful pictures
Analysts say Russian President Vladimir Putin’s latest reshuffle of top officials in charge of operations in Ukraine shows a deeper power struggle between Moscow’s military command and domestic detractors.
One of the most prominent and powerful critics of Moscow’s strategy in Ukraine is Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of the Wagner Group, a private military company that is fighting in Ukraine. Prigozhin criticized the defense commanders for the series of defeats and humiliating retreats during the war.
His criticism seems to have paid off with the appointment of General Sergei Surovikin in October as overall field commander for Russian troops in Ukraine. Prigozhin praised the title and described Surovikin – nicknamed “General Armageddon -” as “the most accomplished commander in the Russian army.”
Surovikin then oversaw a major air strike on Ukraine, which damaged a large part of the country’s energy infrastructure in early winter. He also had the indisputable task of proposing (in a meeting that appeared to be staged on Russian television) to Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu that Russian troops should withdraw from part of Kherson in southern Ukraine. in November – an unpopular move. however confirmed by Prigozhin.
Surovikin’s mission ended just three months later. With few territorial interests to show in Ukraine, on Wednesday he was replaced by the commander, General Valery Gerasimov and appointed his deputy, The Russian Ministry of Defense said. Gerasimov is a Putin loyalist and the highest-ranking uniformed officer in Russia in his previous role as commander of the Russian armed forces.
Russian President Vladimir Putin (centre) talks with Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu (right) and Senior Lieutenant General Valery Gerasimov (left) after a meeting of the Committee of the Russian Ministry of Defense on December 21, 2022.
Mikhail Klimentyev | afp | beautiful pictures
Analysts say the replacement could indicate Moscow’s changing sentiments towards Prigozhin and the Wagner Group, alongside Putin’s displeasure over the lack of tactical advances in the “military campaign” special” in the Moscow style in Ukraine.
Putin’s longtime associate and ally, Prigozhin, became more outspoken during the war as his powerful private military company estimated 50,000 men – also recruited from Russian prisons – gained successes on the battlefield. However, Prigozhin’s criticisms of Russia’s military commanders and frequent bragging about Wagner Group victories sparked criticism in Moscow.
On Tuesday, Prigozhin announced that his military company had single-handedly taken control of Soledar in Donetsk, a major target and site of intense clashes for months. However, the Kremlin was much more cautious in declaring victory, and the Russian Defense Ministry said its elite airborne troops had surrounded Soledar from the north and south while fighting continued in the area. town centre.
power struggle
Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War say Gerasimov’s promotion and broader command overhaul are likely meant to strengthen “traditional power structures” such as the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) in the face of threats challenge from Prigozhin and other “siloviki” – or “strong guys” – who have criticized Moscow’s Ukrainian military strategy.
“The appointment of Gerasimov as field commander is likely to advance two Kremlin efforts: an attempt to improve Russia’s command and control capabilities for a decisive military effort by 2023, and a move political stance to strengthen the Russian Ministry of Defense in the face of challenges from Russian bloggers and siloviki, such as the Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin, who has criticized the Kremlin’s conduct of war,” analysts at ISW said in a review Wednesday night.
Yevgeny Prigozhin, a Russian businessman and close ally of Vladimir Putin, recently admitted to founding the Wagner Group, a private military company that fought in Ukraine, in 2014.
Mikhail Svetlov | beautiful pictures
“The elevation of Gerasimov and the Russian MoD to Surovikin, a favorite of Prigozhin and siloviki In addition, it is very likely partly a political decision to reaffirm the primacy of the Russian MoD in an internal Russian power struggle,” they added. is “a signal to Prigozhin and other actors to tone down their criticism of the MoD.”
ISW concludes: “Prigozhin has relentlessly promoted the Wagner Group at the expense of the reputation of the Russian Ministry of Defense and has been able to duplicate his flashy advertisements on Russian social networks and agencies. associated with the state to assert the superiority of his forces”.
poison cup
The British Ministry of Defense also commented on Wednesday’s reshuffle, calling it a sign “of the increasingly dire situation facing Russia and a clear recognition that the operation is not achieving its objectives.” Russia’s strategic goals.”
It added that the move will likely be greeted with “extreme displeasure” by much of the military and ultra-nationalist blogger community in Russia, “who increasingly blame Gerasimov for wretched execution of the war.”
“In contrast, Surovikin has been widely praised by this community for advocating a more pragmatic approach. As deputy commander, his authority and influence is almost certainly greatly diminished. “
Sergei Surovikin, the former commander of Russian forces in Ukraine, is seen here in 2021.
Mikhail Metzel | afp | beautiful pictures
According to political scientist Mark Galeotti, Surovikin could benefit from not taking command, who says Gerasimov is being given the “unique holy grail”.
“For Gerasimov… it’s a kind of demotion, or at least the most lethal of the holy grails. Now he’s in charge and I suspect that Putin has unrealistic expectations again. ,” Galeotti, director of consulting firm Mayak Intelligence, wrote on Twitter Wednesday. .
“Obviously there will be spring attacks…There may be some progress, but nothing decisive (and the Ukrainians themselves will move towards a spring attack). In other words, I don’t think that Moscow’s strategy is anyway dependent on victory on the battlefield — it’s more political. this and hope that we will lose the will and unity to continue to support Kyiv,” he said.
