“Policies, rather than market demand, promote the adoption of biomass-based diesel fuel”… – Are you okay?
Guest “Did they intentionally get the title wrong?” by David Middleton
MARCH 24, 2022
EIA forecasts US renewable diesel supply will overtake biodiesel in AEO2022In ours Annual energy outlook 2022 (AEO2022) As a reference case, reflecting applicable laws and regulations, we anticipate that renewable diesel supply (domestic production and net imports) will exceed biodiesel supply in the near term. . We predict that renewable diesel supplies will grow to 130,000 b/d (b/d) in 2022 and 145,000 b/d in 2050, reflecting a significant increase in renewable diesel production capacity next time.
Biomass-based diesel fuels include biodiesel and renewable diesel, both of which are refined from the same raw materials as fats, oils and greases. Renewable diesel oil To be chemically indistinguishable from diesel oil (referred to as drop-in diesel fuel), which means it meets specifications for use in existing diesel infrastructure and engines and is not subject to any blending limitations. Biodiesel is a mixture of chemical compounds known as alkyl esters and is often combined with diesel in a blend of 5% to 20%, known as B5 to B20, respectively.
We anticipate that renewable diesel supply production will grow due to compatibility with existing distribution infrastructure and engines, higher state and federal targets for fuel production. renewables, tax credit incentives, and the conversion of existing refineries into renewable diesel refineries.
Targets and incentives that contribute to the growth of renewable diesel engines include the Renewable Fuels Standard, California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standardand US Biomass-Based Biomass Blender Credit, which is applicable through 2022 and allows eligible taxpayers to claim a credit of $1.00/gallon when the required amount of biodiesel or renewable diesel is mixed with diesel for sale or use in commerce or business. In response to the improved economics of renewable diesel engines resulting from these policy actions, domestic production capacity has increased, both in the form of new stand-alone facilities and refineries. convert.
Our idea is policy, rather than market demandpromote the adoption of biomass diesel fuel in the case of Reference AEO2022. Renewable diesel and biodiesel compete for the same feedstock, so some growth in renewable diesel production is expected to displace biodiesel production. We anticipate these two fuels to remain relatively a fraction of the larger diesel marketaccounting for less than 8% of US diesel production in 2050.
Main Contributors: Estella Shi, Will Sommer, Andrew Smiddy
Card: production / supply, AEO (Annual Energy Outlook), forecast / forecast, recycled energy, liquid fuel, diesel oil, biofuel
The EIA describes this graph at the top of the article…
And then, near the end of the article, they come up with this chart…
Shouldn’t more titles like this?
EIA forecasts US biomass-based diesel fuel will remain below 8% of total diesel supply in AEO2022
Or maybe this should be the title:
Policies, rather than market demand, promote the adoption of biomass-based diesel fuel in Reference Case AEO2022… Explain the lack of demand growth
This bit is hilarious:
Renewable diesel oil chemically indistinguishable from diesel…
Diesel from recently dead plants is good for the climate… Diesel from long-dead algae and plankton is bad for the climate… However, a good diesel engine “is chemically indistinguishable from “Bad diesel engine.
Well… As a petroleum geologist, I totally notice that diesel moves carbon from the (slow) geological carbon cycle back to the active (fast) carbon cycle. Meanwhile, renewable diesel engines “recycle” carbon already in the operating cycle. Which says…
Evaluation of renewable diesel engines in UPS fleet vehicles
[…]
Results
The results show that, on average, renewable diesel engines reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 4.2% compared with petroleum diesel.[…]
I don’t want to sound cynical… But a 4.2% reduction in carbon dioxide emissions seems like it would be within the margin of error. At least, it doesn’t sound appreciable.
Carbon dioxide emissions
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates that by 2020, consumption of diesel fuel (distillates) in the U.S. transportation sector will result in emissions of approximately 432 million tons of carbon dioxide. HAVE).2), One greenhouse gas. This is about 26% of the total CO of the US transportation industry2 emissions and equals about 9% of all U.S. energy-related CO22 emissions by 2020.
Last updated: December 2, 2021
Yes… Diesel fuel consumption accounts for “about 9% of all U.S. energy-related CO22 emissions “. If we replace all diesel with renewable diesel, it will reduce CO2 emissions are about 4%… 96% of 9% is still 9% (8.64%). 96% of 432 million tons is 415 tons. The maximum efficiency that a regenerative diesel engine can have is a negligible effect.
“The future is so bright, I have to be nuanced”
Renewable diesel engines: Advanced fuels with the future?
NOVEMBER 12, 2020Once upon a time in the West
Living on the West Coast of the United States and working hard doesn’t always go hand in hand. I met at 4 a.m. with my colleagues in Houston to realize that. However, it can give you a preview of the direction the global energy industry and energy consumers are headed.[…]
How did the West win?
So why is this happening in California? The short answer is incentives. The long answer is three additional sets of incentives. Renewable diesel engines are eligible for the Federal Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS), the California Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS), and the Blenders Tax Credit (BTC) subsidy. These subsidies alone now cover the cost of fuel production, meaning early adopters in the field are seeing profit margins as high as 45%.first Numbers that the oil and gas market can only dream of in today’s market.
[…]
Funny, I don’t remember anyone whining about the “returns” of renewable diesel companies in 2020, despite the fact that government subsidies already cover the “cost of fuel production.” their.
Well, that bright future certainly doesn’t last long.
US production of renewable diesel faces difficulties due to high input material costs
August 11, 2021
Author Janet McGurty
Editor Jim Levesque
Agricultural commodities, Electricity, OilThe growing popularity of U.S. and other U.S. refineries and others replacing or building renewable diesel facilities seems to have hit a roadblock, as demand for Increasing raw materials are putting pressure on supply and prices.
CVR Energy has decided, for the time being, to keep its Wynnewood, Oklahoma refinery in “oil service” rather than bringing the unit down to complete its renewable diesel transition. because of the high cost of renewable diesel fuel, CEO Dave Lamp said Aug.
“The price of renewable diesel feedstocks has increased significantly, especially for refined, bleached and deodorized soybean oil, to the point where the economics do not allow us to complete the transition at the time,” he said. this.
[…]
And the headwinds of 2021, keep getting stronger…
Why don’t Democrats call for a “profit tax” on soybean oil? I guess they’re busy with even worse ideas: Lawmakers propose $100 ‘energy discount’ stimulus test to offset high gas prices
EIA AEO2022 forecasts that market demand, regardless of policies, will continue to drive this: Petroleum and natural gas are the most used fuels in the United States by 2050…
Note: Biofuels are all shown separately and are included in petroleum and other liquids.
Turned out…
“The future is so bright, I have to be nuanced”
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