From Dr. Roy Spencer’s Global Warming Blog
August 24, 2022 by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.
UPDATE: Bureau of Reclamation research link fixed, Colorado Basin ice chart added and discussion.
In today’s news, another article claims the record low water levels in Lake Mead (an artificial reservoir) are caused by human-caused climate change. In fact, to make matters even more sinister, the Mafia is also part of the story:
Climate change is revealing the terrible secrets of this Las Vegas lake mafia
While it is true that less water has been released from the Colorado River basin in recent years (which supplies 97% of Lake Mead’s water), this is after years of above-average inflows of mountain ice and snow. jar. Those decadent time-scale changes are mostly the result of stronger El Niño years (more mountain snow) giving way to stronger La Nina years (less snow).
The result is a record low water level:
Lake Mead water levels since the construction of the Hoover Dam (source: NBC News)
But the real problem is not the natural water availability. That is using water.
The following chart shows the underlying problem (click for full resolution). Since about 2000, the water use of 25 million people (who prefer to live in semi-desert areas where the sun shines almost every day) has increased to the point where the amount of water being removed from Lake Mead more than nature could. resupply it.
This figure is from a detail research of the United States Bureau of Reclamation. As long as the blue line (water supply) is above the red line (water supply), there is more than enough water to please everyone.
But for now, excessive water demand means that water levels in Lake Mead are likely to continue to fall unless water use is restricted in some way. The study’s projections for the future pictured above, including climate model projections, show little change in future water supplies compared with natural variability over the last century.
The real problem is that too much water is being taken out of the reservoir.
As long as the red line stays above the blue line, the Lake Mead water level will continue to fall.
But to blame this is on climate change, whether natural or man-made, ignoring the thirsty elephant in the room.
UPDATE: As it has been pointed out in the comments (below) that the latest study by the Bureau of Reclamation is quite dated (2012), and it is believed that the drought has gotten worse since then , which is a map of the Colorado River Basin’s snow and ice in April (peak month), which supplies about 50% of Lake Mead’s water. The rest is provided in the non-mountainous regions of the river basin, so it is highly correlated with the mountainous regions. I see no evidence of a reduction in snow and ice due to “climate change”… perhaps the recent drought conditions are responsible for the water demand of 25 million consumers, driving demand higher?
April snow and ice in the Colorado River basin, the largest source of water input for Lake Mead (data from https://www.nrcs.usda.gov/Internet/WCIS/AWS_PLOTS/basinCharts/POR/WTEQ/assocHUCco_8/colorado_headwaters.html
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