“Nine Years to Save the Earth” from Climate Change – Do You Thrive With That?

World has nine years to stop catastrophic warming, study finds

Scientists say gas projects discussed at UN climate conference will seriously threaten world’s climate goals

Via Sarah Kaplan
Updated November 11, 2022 at 12:57 p.m. EST

SHARM EL-SHEIKH, Egypt — Countries could burn off their remaining carbon budgets in less than a decade if they don’t significantly reduce greenhouse gas pollution, A new study shows thatcause the world to pass a critical warming threshold and cause catastrophic climate impacts.

But new gas projects – launched in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and results global energy crisis – will spend the remaining 10% of the carbon budget, prevented countries from meeting the Paris agreement’s goal of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees C above pre-industrial levels, according to another report released Wednesday.

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Read more: https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2022/11/11/cop27-egypt-carbon-budget-gas-projects/

Global Carbon Budget 2022

Friedlingstein, P., O’Sullivan, M., Jones, MW, Andrew, RM, Gregor, L., Hauck, J., Le Quéré, C., Luijkx, IT, Olsen, A., Peters, GP, Peters , W., Pongratz, J., Schwingshackl, C., Sitch, S., Canadell, JG, Ciais, P., Jackson, RB, Alin, SR, Alkama, R., Arneth, A., Arora, VK, Bates, NR, Becker, M., Bellouin, N., Bittig, HC, Bopp, L., Chevallier, F., Chini, LP, Cronin, M., Evans, W., Falk, S., Feely, RA , Gasser, T., Gehlen, M., Gkritzalis, T., Gloege, L., Grassi, G., Gruber, N., Gürses, Ö., Harris, I., Hefner, M., Houghton, RA, Hurtt, GC, Iida, Y., Ilyina, T., Jain, AK, Jersild, A., Kadono, K., Kato, E., Kennedy, D., Klein Goldewijk, K., Knauer, J., Korsbakken , JI, Landschützer, P., Lefèvre, N., Lindsay, K., Liu, J., Liu, Z., Marland, G., Mayot, N., McGrath, MJ, Metzl, N., Monacci, NM , Munro, DR, Nakaoka, S.-I., Niwa, Y., O’Brien, K., Ono, T., Palmer, PI, Pan, N., Pierrot, D., Pocock, K., Poulter , B., Resplandy, L., Robertson, E., Rödenbeck, C., Rodriguez, C., Rosan, TM, Schwinger, J., Sé féria n, R., Shutler, JD, Skjelvan, I., Steinhoff, T., Sun, Q., Sutton, AJ, Sweeney, C., Takao, S., Tanhua, T., Tans, PP, Tian, X., Tian, ​​H., Tilbrook, B., Tsujino, H., Tubiello, F., van der Werf, GR, Walker, AP, Wanninkhof, R., Whitehead, C., Willstrand Wranne, A., Wright, R., Yuan, W., Yue, C., Yue, X., Zaehle, S., Zeng, J., and Zheng, B.

Received: September 26, 2022 – Start of discussion: September 29, 2022 – Edited: October 14, 2022 – Accepted: October 14, 2022 – Published: November 11, 2022

abstract

Accurate assessment of man-made carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, oceans and terrestrial biosphere under changing climate conditions are critical to better understanding the global carbon cycle, supporting develop climate policies and forecast future climate change. Here we describe and synthesize data sets and methodologies to quantify the five key components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. CO fossil₂ emissions (E_FOS) based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions due to land use change (E_LUC), mainly deforestation, based on land use and land use change data and bookkeeping models. CO2 . atmosphere₂ concentration is measured directly, and its growth rate (g_ATM) is calculated from annual changes in concentration. Ocean CO₂ sink (S_OCEAN) was estimated using global ocean biogeochemical models and observation-based data products. CO on the ground₂ sink (S_SOIL) was estimated using dynamic global vegetation models. The result is an imbalance in the carbon budget (b_I), the difference between estimated total emissions and estimated changes in the atmosphere, oceans, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and a modern understanding of the carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1.

For the year 2021, e_FOS 5.1% increase over 2020, with fossil emissions at 10.1 ± 0.5 GtC per year⁻¹ (9.9 ± 0.5 GtC year⁻¹ when cement carbonate sinks are included), and E_LUC is 1.1 ± 0.7 GtC year⁻¹for total artificial CO₂ emissions (including carbonated cement tanks) 10.9 ± 0.8 GtC year⁻¹ (40.0 ± 2.9 GtCO₂). In addition, for 2021, g_ATM is 5.2 ± 0.2 GtC year⁻¹ (2.5 ± 0.1 ppm year⁻¹), S_OCEAN is 2.9 ± 0.4 GtC year⁻¹and S_SOIL is 3.5 ± 0.9 GtC year⁻¹with one b_I of −0.6 GtC year⁻¹ (i.e. the total estimated source count is too low or the sink amount too high). global atmosphere CO₂ the average concentration by 2021 will reach 414.71 ± 0.1 ppm. Preliminary data for 2022 shows an increase E_FOS compared to 2021 is +1.0 % (0.1 % to 1.9 %) globally and CO2 in the atmosphere₂ concentration reached 417.2 ppm, more than 50% of the pre-industrial level (about 278 ppm). Overall, the mean and trends in the components of the global carbon budget are estimated to be consistent over the period 1959–2021, but differ by up to 1 GtC per year.⁻¹ persists to show annual to half-decade variation in CO₂ flux agent. Comparison of estimates from multiple approaches and observations reveals (1) persistently large uncertainty in land-use change emissions estimates, (2) low consistency between different methods about the magnitude of soil CO₂ currents in the northern subtropics and (3) the difference between different methods in the strength of ocean subduction over the past decade. This live data update documents the changes in the methods and datasets used in this new global carbon budget and the progress in understanding the global carbon cycle compared to previous publications of the department. this data. The data presented in this work are available at https://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-2022 (Friedlingstein et al., 2022b).

executive summary

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Remaining carbon budget for 50% capacity to limit global warming to 1.5, 1.7 and 2 C was correspondingly reduced to 105 GtC (380 GtCO₂), 200 GtC (730 GtCO₂), and 335 GtC (1230 GtCO₂) from the beginning of 2023, equivalent to 9, 18 and 30 years, assuming emissions in 2022. Total anthropogenic emissions is 11.0 GtC year⁻¹ (40.2 GtCO₂five⁻¹) in 2021, with a rough estimate of 11.1 GtC years⁻¹ (40.5 GtCO₂five⁻¹) for 2022. The remaining carbon budget to keep global temperatures below these climate targets has been reduced by 32 GtC (121 GtCO₂ ) since the data-based IPCC AR6 Working Group 1 assessment to 2019. Pass CO₂emissions in 2050 bring the total amount of man-made CO₂linear emissions decrease by about 0.4 GtC (1.4 GtCO₂) per year, compared with the reduction in 2020, highlighting the scale of action needed.

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Read more: Global Carbon Budget 2022, Earth System. Science. Data, 14, 4811–4900