The NFL Regular season is here! (add a little more to this intro)
FOX Sports Research analyzed the historical data for Week 1 to give you the edge when placing bets this week. We’ve analyzed the overall trends and some notes specifically for coaches and players. Here are some prominent trends.
1. Dog barking
Since 2000, the loss rate has been 175-155-14 (53%) over spread (ATS) and 117-225 (34%) straight up (SU) in Week 1 games. If you roll back Even further back to 1966 (early Super Bowl era), the cover ratio was still approximately 402-370-25 ATS (52.1%).
2. Large cover two-digit underscore
Since 2000, the under double digit odds are 12-7 ATS (63.2%) and 3-16 SU (16%) on Week 1 games. Looking at the more recent sample sizes, the odds That coverage increased to 66.7% because of the double-digit lower rate of 6-3 ATS in the Week 1 games back in 2010.
3. Visits under
Since 2000, underperform has hit 181 of Week 1’s 344 games (52.6%). Back in 1986 – as soon as our over/under data came back – the lower hit 50.9%, hitting 275 out of 540 games in the opening week.
4. Bill of exchange prevailed over Rams
Many people are surprised that the Super Bowl defending champions lost 2.5 points at home on Thursday, but it may not be so surprising when looking at the numbers from a historical perspective. The Buffalo Bills is 7-2 ATS and SU (77.8%) compared to Los Angeles Rams since 1989. In terms of totals gone when these two teams played against each other, totals have occurred in eight of those nine games.
5. The bill may prevail, but Sean McVay is perfect in Week 1
That being said, Rams coach Sean McVay was a perfect 5-0 ATS and 5-0 SU in Week 1 of his coaching career. That means Thursday must give away.
6. The defending Super Bowl champion is rarely beaten by the home team in Week 1
It’s rare for the defending Super Bowl champion to be defeated at home in Week 1. Since 1966, the Super Bowl champion has only been underrated nine times in Week 1 of the following season. In those matches, the champions won 5-4 ATS (55.6%) and 4-5 SU (44.4%). However, out of those nine cases, four of them were underdogs. Those teams drew 4-0 ATS and 3-1 SU. Food for thought because the Rams fit that bill on Thursday night’s opening show of the season.
7. Bet on Mike Tomlin to cover
Mike Tomlin was 14-6 ATS (70%) and 11-9 SU (55%) in bot lane against AFC North opponents during his career. The Pittsburgh Steelers 6.5 points behind the Bengals in Week 1. Tomlin also has 30-20-1 (60%) ATS and 24-27 SU (47%) overall as a bot laner in his coaching career. his.
8. Andy Reid is a strangely good road buff
The Chief of Kansas City are 26-17 ATS (60.5%) and 33-1 SU (97%) are road favorites under Andy Reid since 2013. Reid is also 7-6 ATS (53.8%) and 6-7 SU (46%) vs The Arizona Cardinals in his coaching career. But he is 0-2 ATS and 1-1 SU against the Cardinals with the Chiefs.
9. Pete Carroll and Geno Smith were historically considered the home team under
Pete Carroll was 19-8-1 (70.4%) ATS and 15-13 SU (53.6%) as an underdog in his head coaching career. Furthermore, he is 16-7 ATS (69.6%) and 12-11 SU (52.2%) as a home team under the head coach of Seattle Seahawks Football Team. For fairness, Russell Wilson was his starting midfielder in most of those games. This next stat can be shocking because Geno Smith 6-3 ATS (66.7%) and 3-6 SU (33.3%) when starting as the underdog home team. Seattle is currently 6.5 points behind Dancer broncos in a fun Monday Night Football game.
10. Tom Brady shines as a lane lover
brave cat is 65-54-1 ATS (54.6%) and 88-32 SU (73.3%) when departing as a road enthusiast. Brady is 7-9 ATS (43.8%) and 12-4 SU (75%) is Tampa Bay Buccaneers launch when a favorite path. Tampa Bay is currently the favorite place by 2.5 points compared to Dallas Cowboys It was supposed to be a Sunday night blockbuster match.
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